Some O's tidbits from Keith Law's chat yesterday

[DrungoHazewood]

Miguel Gonzalez was a 28 year old rookie that, prior to this season, had pitched a grand total of 5 inning above AA ball. In three seasons at AA level he had a 4.06 ERA and a WHIP of 1.309.

I think a little skepticism is in order.

Anyone know why he didn't start pitching in the minors until he was 21?

I think you can be skeptical about Gonzalez' durability. And you can be skeptical he'll continue to beat his FIP/xFIP by a run or so. But I'm not skeptical that he's a pitcher who'll give you decent peripherals, and therfore (in an average healthy year) be an average-ish starter, a good mid-rotation guy. No, I don't think you just double his 2012 numbers and pencil that in for the forseeable future, but there aren't a ton of guys with 3.25 ERAs you can do that with, anyway.

I have him slotted as "solid member of the rotation." I think that's fair.

[Orange_Crush]

What is your reason for not being so high on these two? And offer up more than then fact that Hammel only played half a season. Every time he came back, he picked up right where he left off.

Hammel has never showed he could do this before, so why buy in? Also, he came from Colorado. How many players in the AL saw him his last go around in TB? Sometimes it can be a change of a new league. Pitchers can fool you the first go around or so. Now teams will have a video on his season work. Being fresh down the stretch has it's advantages, no? As for Gonzalez, he hasn't shown in the past he can do this. He was in the minors until his late 20's except for a short stint. Wonder why it took him s many years to breakthrough? Almost every guy can have a decent season in their career. The difference between the good ones and many others is repeating it.

[Orange_Crush]

I think you can be skeptical about Gonzalez' durability. And you can be skeptical he'll continue to beat his FIP/xFIP by a run or so. But I'm not skeptical that he's a pitcher who'll give you decent peripherals, and therfore (in an average healthy year) be an average-ish starter, a good mid-rotation guy. No, I don't think you just double his 2012 numbers and pencil that in for the forseeable future, but there aren't a ton of guys with 3.25 ERAs you can do that with, anyway.

I have him slotted as "solid member of the rotation." I think that's fair.[/QUOTE]

I do agree with you he's earned a spot. However thats as far with that as I will go. I wouldn;'t be shocked if he struggled and became a bullpen guy at some point this upcoming year either though.

[wildcard]

Hammel has never showed he could do this before, so why buy in? Also, he came from Colorado. How many players in the AL saw him his last go around in TB? Sometimes it can be a change of a new league. Pitchers can fool you the first go around or so. Now teams will have a video on his season work. Being fresh down the stretch has it's advantages, no? As for Gonzalez, he hasn't shown in the past he can do this. He was in the minors until his late 20's except for a short stint. Wonder why it took him s many years to breakthrough? Almost every guy can have a decent season in their career. The difference between the good ones and many others is repeating it.

Every pitcher on the staff and most every pitcher in baseball is vulnerable to a sore arm or a down year. However that is not that way they are projected. They are projected to do what they have done or if they are young to improve with experience and additional innings. Are the projects wrong sometimes? Absolutely. But from where we are before the season starts it is hard to know who beats the projections and who fails back. I don't see Hammel or Gonzalez being exempt from that.

[luismatos4prez]

Hammel has never showed he could do this before, so why buy in? Also, he came from Colorado. How many players in the AL saw him his last go around in TB? Sometimes it can be a change of a new league. Pitchers can fool you the first go around or so. Now teams will have a video on his season work.

If only they had cameras in the NL.

[Brendan25]

Miguel Gonzalez was a 28 year old rookie that, prior to this season, had pitched a grand total of 5 inning above AA ball. In three seasons at AA level he had a 4.06 ERA and a WHIP of 1.309.

I think a little skepticism is in order.

Anyone know why he didn't start pitching in the minors until he was 21?

Cliff Lee pitched to a 6.29 ERA when he was 28 years old and got sent to the minor leagues. His 27 year old season before that he pitched to a 4.40 ERA.

We all know what happened from there.

I'm actually a little bit more skeptical about Tillman then I am Gonzalez for next year. Just eye test, Gonzalez REALLY looks like the real deal.

I also thought the same thing about Bergesen though, so my own thoughts scare me.

[DrungoHazewood]

Cliff Lee pitched to a 6.29 ERA when he was 28 years old and got sent to the minor leagues. His 27 year old season before that he pitched to a 4.40 ERA.

We all know what happened from there.

I'm actually a little bit more skeptical about Tillman then I am Gonzalez for next year. Just eye test, Gonzalez REALLY looks like the real deal.

I also thought the same thing about Bergesen though, so my own thoughts scare me.

Bergesen's strikeout rate was always so low that he had to do almost everything else very well to succeed. He had almost no margin for error striking out 2/3rds of league average. Gonzalez doesn't have that problem, he doesn't have Bergesen's single point of failure (a reliance on a plus-plus sinker).

[Tx Oriole]

I personally have no desire to tamper with the left side of our infield. Hardy has been a 7 WAR player over his two years here (3.5 WAR/yr), and Machado played at a 4.5 WAR/yr pace as a green rookie who had just turned 20 years old. The left side of the infield was virtually impregnable for the last two months, unlike anything I've seen since Brooks and Belanger were at their stations. I'm not changing anything about that. The fact that Hardy had a down year offensively and that Machado will one day be our SS doesn't change my opinion one iota.

Nor mine Frobby.

[Roll Tide]

I personally have no desire to tamper with the left side of our infield. Hardy has been a 7 WAR player over his two years here (3.5 WAR/yr), and Machado played at a 4.5 WAR/yr pace as a green rookie who had just turned 20 years old. The left side of the infield was virtually impregnable for the last two months, unlike anything I've seen since Brooks and Belanger were at their stations. I'm not changing anything about that. The fact that Hardy had a down year offensively and that Machado will one day be our SS doesn't change my opinion one iota.

Bordick & Ripken ????

[Ruzious]

Nor mine Frobby.

I think with the lack of offense in the infield, there has to be significant offensive improvement at at least one of those positions - perhaps 2. And I don't see that improvement coming from the personnel they currently have. To me, if you're serious about getting to the playoffs again, you don't go in to next season with that infield. Last year was basically a miracle that's not likely going to be repeated in our lifetimes.

[DrungoHazewood]

Bordick & Ripken ????

I don't think a 35-40 year old Cal was in the same class as Manny with the glove. And it's not particularly close. Bordick and Hardy are pretty similar.

[Frobby]

I don't think a 35-40 year old Cal was in the same class as Manny with the glove. And it's not particularly close. Bordick and Hardy are pretty similar.

Cal was maybe a little closer to Manny than you are giving him credit for, but I still agree with your assessment that Manny was better.

[mark_beckens]

What about keeping machado at 3rd and trading jj and a 3rd tier prospect for elvis andrus? He could probably be our leadoff man and would give us the opportunity to put markakis to the 2 hole. Andrus' date=' Schoop, and Machado would be a good infield for a long time. Anyone think Texas would trade him with Profar waiting in the wings? Just a thought. Feel free to shoot me down.lol[/quote']

If Texas trades Andrus, it's to start Profar!

[wompfump]

The problem with moving Hardy to fill holes is that it creates a huge one at 3B, which is possibly the hardest one to fill in MLB.

But 2B is harder to fill this season than 3B is, and with the likes of stop gaps available such as Youkilis (who would be a great fit), there are more possibilities.

[Frobby]

I think with the lack of offense in the infield, there has to be significant offensive improvement at at least one of those positions - perhaps 2. And I don't see that improvement coming from the personnel they currently have. To me, if you're serious about getting to the playoffs again, you don't go in to next season with that infield. Last year was basically a miracle that's not likely going to be repeated in our lifetimes.

They will get offensive improvement from SS /3B without changing personnel. Hardy is better than he showed last year, and Machado is going to get better with experience.