Bill James' 2013 Projections

[Art Wing]

Likely doesn't make them any better or any worse.

Exactly. The myth of lineup protection is, well, largely a myth.

[CA-ORIOLE]

I beg to differ. I think he's the bat the Orioles need. He is an imposing hitter and though the Orioles have excellent power they have few pure hitters in the lineup.Nick is one. Just about everyone else

is a strikeout waiting to happen.True, Hamilton had 162 K's last year( a career high,) but he's never been a big strikeout guy before.He also had a career high in HR's and had his second best season

ever in RBI's. With an OPS @.930 and a career OBP of.360 tell me a better option for a bat the Orioles may get in the next several years.

Well, I don't dispute that good players make the team better, and Hamilton is certainly a good player. I just dispute your implication that he'd somehow make other players better (i.e Wieters and Jones). There is just no evidence to support that.

[Dark Helmet]

If Jones comes out swinging at sliders a foot outside and nearly bouncing, I could see those projections being about right.

[El Gordo]

Well, I don't dispute that good players make the team better, and Hamilton is certainly a good player. I just dispute your implication that he'd somehow make other players better (i.e Wieters and Jones). There is just no evidence to support that.

It's not surprising that there is no stat evidence. With the constant volitility of line ups how would it be possible to get a large enough sample size to prove it one way or the other?

[CA-ORIOLE]

It's not surprising that there is no stat evidence. With the constant volitility of line ups how would it be possible to get a large enough sample size to prove it one way or the other?

Not sure what you're talking about, there are numerous studies with ample statistical data showing no evidence of any positive impact from lineup protection.

[El Gordo]

Not sure what you're talking about, there are numerous studies with ample statistical data showing no evidence of any positive impact from lineup protection.

How do they go about demonstrating this?

[CA-ORIOLE]

How do they go about demonstrating this?

In my opinion this one is the best.

http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/pitching-around-batters

[SteveO]

I can't see any statistical evidence to back it up, just the "light switch" theory.

Not saying it couldn't happen, but I would bet that an .872 OPS is very unlikely.

Wouldn't be complaining if it happened though, that is for sure.

I am sure Bill James watches plenty of baseball lol. No doubt in my mind that when doing projections in particular his impressions of a player can influence his projections. James would seem to be banking on Davis learning he is so strong he does not need to swing like Babe freaking Ruth to clobber a ball, he simply needs to make solid contact. Physics does the rest .... I felt that at times last season he showed that ability but was inconsistent with it. Will be interesting to see how it plays out. I like Davis and expect he will be very productive next year.

[CA-ORIOLE]

I am sure Bill James watches plenty of baseball lol. No doubt in my mind that when doing projections in particular his impressions of a player can influence his projections. James would seem to be banking on Davis learning he is so strong he does not need to swing like Babe freaking Ruth to clobber a ball, he simply needs to make solid contact. Physics does the rest .... I felt that at times last season he showed that ability but was inconsistent with it. Will be interesting to see how it plays out. I like Davis and expect he will be very productive next year.

I doubt Jame's "impressions" of a player have anything to do with his projections. It's likely as simple as data placed into an algorithm.

[SteveO]

I doubt Jame's "impressions" of a player have anything to do with his projections. It's likely as saimple as data placed into an algorithm.

Yea but were are the statistics that back up such an increase in Davis production next season CA? Not being difficult here but I am not seeing it if its there. If its not there then obviously the increase has to be based on something other than statistics right?? The only other logical conclusion would be his personal impressions or a collection of other peoples subjective impressions.

Openly admitting I could be totally wrong I just cant see what data James is using to predict a significant increase in Chris Davis offensive production.

[CA-ORIOLE]

Yea but were are the statistics that back up such an increase in Davis production next season CA? Not being difficult here but I am not seeing it if its there. If its not there then obviously the increase has to be based on something other than statistics right?? The only other logical conclusion would be his personal impressions or a collection of other peoples subjective impressions.

Openly admitting I could be totally wrong I just cant see what data James is using to predict a significant increase in Chris Davis offensive production.

Well, I don't see the projection either, but if I had to guess it could involve:

1. His exceptional finish from the beginning of the year.

2. His significant improvement over 2011.

3. Steady playing time in 2012.

4. His Mil track record which shows he's capable of hitting for higher batting average.

5. His HR rate with a fairly low FB rate.

6. Number of ML AB's coorelating to when hitters tend to more fully adjust.

[SteveO]

Well, I don't see the projection either, but if I had to guess it could involve:

1. His exceptional finish from the beginning of the year.

2. His significant improvement over 2011.

3. Steady playing time in 2012.

4. His Mil track record which shows he's capable of hitting for higher batting average.

5. His HR rate with a fairly low FB rate.

6. Number of ML AB's coorelating to when hitters tend to more fully adjust.

I totally agree with the projection to be honest. I really like Davis. Guess I was just saying that I am sure Bill James has some tape on Chris Davis. Its gotta have left some kind of impression on him IMO. We have all had the experience of preferring or projecting one player over another even though to that point they have similar statistics. Was kinda meant as a compliment. James has a good eye IMO, I think that helps his accuracy.

[CA-ORIOLE]

I totally agree with the projection to be honest. I really like Davis. Guess I was just saying that I am sure Bill James has some tape on Chris Davis. Its gotta have left some kind of impression on him IMO. We have all had the experience of preferring or projecting one player over another even though to that point they have similar statistics. Was kinda meant as a compliment. James has a good eye IMO, I think that helps his accuracy.

Well, I seriously doubt it. If I had to guess, I doubt he gives Chris Davis much thought at all (if any). As Frobby said, his projections tend to be very optimistic. I'm guessing there's something about Davis's power surge (along with some other factors) that his code/system likes.

[mark_beckens]

In my opinion this one is the best.

http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/pitching-around-batters

Maybe it's cause I'm tired. But that made no sense. I agree with El Gordo, protection in the line up matters. IF not, why to GM's go out looking for it every year. Example, Prince for Cabrara.

[SrMeowMeow]

I have been tracking all the various projections done by different prognosticators for several years now. Bill James is almost always higher than systems like PECOTA and ZiPS when it comes to offensive projections.

Agreed, at least in past years, but all of these projections with the exception of Davis look very reasonable.