What would it take to get Billy Butler

[Frobby]

Butler hit 44 or more doubles in each of the 3 seasons prior to 2012- Stevie Wonder could've seen that the power was coming. The guy is going to collect his 1000th career hit in May of his age 27 season. The dude's well on his way to Cooperstown.And no, I'm not a Royals fan- not that my allegiances as a fan have anything to do with BB's obvious status as an elite hitter. Shall we also look for some witches or Communists while we're chasing red herrings?

I like Butler, but having 1000 hits by May of your age 27 season is hardly a ticket to Cooperstown. I know that Nick Markakis, who recorded his 1000th hit on July 15 of his age 27 season, was 142nd on the list of most hits through age 26 with 891, and Eddie Murray was 77th with 997. http://forum.orioleshangout.com/forums/showthread.php/112376-Nick-14th-(modern)-Oriole-with-1-000-hits-will-he-make-3k/page2?highlight=Nick So, Butler (956 hits) is probably somewhere in the 100-110 range, I'd guess. Only 20-25% of the guys ahead of him through age 26 ever made it to 3,000 hits. Butler has a shot at Cooperstown, but I'd hardly say he's "well on his way."

[DrinkinWithFermi]

I like Butler, but having 1000 hits by May of your age 27 season is hardly a ticket to Cooperstown. I know that Nick Markakis, who recorded his 1000th hit on July 15 of his age 27 season, was 142nd on the list of most hits through age 26 with 891, and Eddie Murray was 77th with 997. http://forum.orioleshangout.com/forums/showthread.php/112376-Nick-14th-(modern)-Oriole-with-1-000-hits-will-he-make-3k/page2?highlight=Nick So, Butler (956 hits) is probably somewhere in the 100-110 range, I'd guess. Only 20-25% of the guys ahead of him through age 26 ever made it to 3,000 hits. Butler has a shot at Cooperstown, but I'd hardly say he's "well on his way."

I wasn't saying that he's a shoo-in or anything. Just that his age, his career-prolonging role as a DH and his current .300/.362/.468 pace bodes very well for his chances.

[Roll Tide]

Butler hit 44 or more doubles in each of the 3 seasons prior to 2012- Stevie Wonder could've seen that the power was coming. The guy is going to collect his 1000th career hit in May of his age 27 season. The dude's well on his way to Cooperstown at his current pace.

And no, I'm not a Royals fan- not that my allegiances as a fan have anything to do with BB's obvious status as an elite hitter. Shall we also look for some witches or Communists while we're chasing red herrings?

Dont be a Jerk! The doubles dont necessarily project to home runs. Boggs for example hit tons of doubles and he hit his most home runs 24 by a lot when he was 29. He never got any where close to that again. His doubles didnt take a dip until age 34 when they dropped by about 10 per season.

[Roll Tide]

I wasn't saying that he's a shoo-in or anything. Just that his age, his career-prolonging role as a DH and his current .300/.362/.468 pace bodes very well for his chances.

And saying a premier hitter isn't a premier hitter doesn't make it fact. The guy is putting together a HOF career.

This is what you said earlier.... As Frobby said his chances are about 1 in 4 of making it. The guy has been called "Very Good" by several posters in this thread including me. No one would want him if he wasn't. Your the only guy here calling him Elite.

[CA-ORIOLE]

Dont be a Jerk! The doubles dont necessarily project to home runs. Boggs for example hit tons of doubles and he hit his most home runs 24 by a lot when he was 29. He never got any where close to that again. His doubles didnt take a dip until age 34 when they dropped by about 10 per season.

Well, many power hitters put up fly ball rates up around 45%, Butler's was only 29% last year (around 34% career), though he does hit a high percentage of LD's. I think it's reasonable that Butler could hit more HR's by hitting more FB's. Boggs never really tired to hit HR's, nor did he have the power potential of a Billy Butler.

[Frobby]

This is what you said earlier.... As Frobby said his chances are about 1 in 4 of making it. The guy has been called "Very Good" by several posters in this thread including me. No one would want him if he wasn't. Your the only guy here calling him Elite.

I wasn't picking a fight with DrinkinWithFermi over whether Butler is "eilte," I was just pointing out that there is pretty much nobody who is 26 years old and "well on his way to Cooperstown." It's like predicting the outcome of the Kentucky Derby based on who has the lead at the quarter pole.

FWIW, Butler debuted in 2007. He's 13th in rWAR among offensive players who debuted that year. He's third in hits. In the last 20 years, there are 10 players who had more hits than Butler by age 26. I'd say three of those (Arod, Pujols and Jeter) are sure Hall of Famers, another three have a good shot (Cabrera, Andruw Jones, Beltre), three it's too early to say (Crawford, Wright, Reyes) and one is very unlikely (Renteria, who by the way had ther second most hits through age 26 of any of these 10).

[Roll Tide]

I wasn't picking a fight with DrinkinWithFermi over whether Butler is "eilte," I was just pointing out that there is pretty much nobody who is 26 years old and "well on his way to Cooperstown." It's like predicting the outcome of the Kentucky Derby based on who has the lead at the quarter pole.

FWIW, Butler debuted in 2007. He's 13th in rWAR among offensive players who debuted that year. He's third in hits. In the last 20 years, there are 10 players who had more hits than Butler by age 26. I'd say three of those (Arod, Pujols and Jeter) are sure Hall of Famers, another three have a good shot (Cabrera, Andruw Jones, Beltre), three it's too early to say (Crawford, Wright, Reyes) and one is very unlikely (Renteria, who by the way had ther second most hits through age 26 of any of these 10).

Im not picking a fight either. I basically said IMO that Butler is a very good player. I dont think he's a stud at this point. I will feel that we if he produces the next two or three like he did this season. And he is in fact a DH.

[Frobby]

Im not picking a fight either. I basically said IMO that Butler is a very good player. I dont think he's a stud at this point. I will feel that we if he produces the next two or three like he did this season. And he is in fact a DH.

And I more or less agree with you. His offensive skill set would fit in well with what we need, though.

[Roll Tide]

And I more or less agree with you. His offensive skill set would fit in well with what we need, though.

I agree and I know that its a fairy tale ...But I think we should get Butler in a trade and A certain LF that I've advocated for from free agency. The Orioles would be much improved in the area that lacked luster at times last year. It would end the huge number of one run games. We'd be close to the most improved team. They could bring in 1 starter ...Saunders or some comparable and add a 1B to replace Reynolds if they cant bring him back.

[clapdiddy]

I agree and I know that its a fairy tale ...But I think we should get Butler in a trade and A certain LF that I've advocated for from free agency. The Orioles would be much improved in the area that lacked luster at times last year. It would end the huge number of one run games. We'd be close to the most improved team. They could bring in 1 starter ...Saunders or some comparable and add a 1B to replace Reynolds if they cant bring him back.

Adding Hamilton and Butler to this lineup would dramatically change it. I think the odds of us getting Hamilton are a lot more than us acquiring Butler. And, for the record, I think our chances of landing Hamilton are extremely small.

[Dark Helmet]

Adding Hamilton and Butler to this lineup would dramatically change it. I think the odds of us getting Hamilton are a lot more than us acquiring Butler. And, for the record, I think our chances of landing Hamilton are extremely small.

The market seems to be shrinking since Philly said BJ Upton is their top priority. It seems it may come down to the O's, Mariners, and Red Sox. The Mariners arent going to win that division anytime soon and I think Hamilton would prefer the laid back media of Baltimore over the Boston.

[clapdiddy]

The market seems to be shrinking since Philly said BJ Upton is their top priority. It seems it may come down to the O's, Mariners, and Red Sox. The Mariners arent going to win that division anytime soon and I think Hamilton would prefer the laid back media of Baltimore over the Boston.

If the number of years and dollars aren't going to be that high (which I doubt), I could see some other teams getting involved. I could see a team like Detroit swooping in and making him an offer he can't refuse.

[Roll Tide]

The market seems to be shrinking since Philly said BJ Upton is their top priority. It seems it may come down to the O's, Mariners, and Red Sox. The Mariners arent going to win that division anytime soon and I think Hamilton would prefer the laid back media of Baltimore over the Boston.

Plus Boston isnt going to be very good next season ...Maybe two.

[Dark Helmet]

Plus Boston isnt going to be very good next season ...Maybe two.

The only reason I brought up Boston, is because they apparantly made a late push for Rwyes and Johnson. So they will spend still. Im not sure how crazy they will go. I just think if the salary is close, JH would rather be in a smaller media market.

[stomperspc]

I agree and I know that its a fairy tale ...But I think we should get Butler in a trade and A certain LF that I've advocated for from free agency. The Orioles would be much improved in the area that lacked luster at times last year. It would end the huge number of one run games. We'd be close to the most improved team. They could bring in 1 starter ...Saunders or some comparable and add a 1B to replace Reynolds if they cant bring him back.

I know this wasn't the main point of your post, but just wanted to point out that the Orioles didn't play in a large number of one-run games. They played in 38 which tied them with the Braves for the second lowest total in the Majors. The Indians and Angels played in the fewest number of one run games in 2012 with 36 each. The average MLB team played in 46 one-run games in 2012. I looked up the numbers the other day and from 1901 to 2012 the average number of one run games per season was about 48 games per team. I've seen a few people comment about the number of one-run games the O's played in when in reality, they played in a relatively small amount. They just happened to win more of them than one would expect.

Interestingly enough, the Orioles, Braves and Indians had the three highest winning percentages in one-run games in 2012 and they were also in the top four for fewest one-run games played. Not saying there is a correlation exactly, but it does seem logical that teams that play fewer one run games would be more likely to see a deviation from the norm in winning percentage (there is a greater chance for outliers in a smaller sample). It also points to the fact that the Orioles are not necessarily going to win fewer one-run games in 2013. It might just be that they are likely to play in more one-run games, lose most of the "additional" games, and bring their one-run record down to the average range that way.