BRob Says He's Healthy

[luismatos4prez]

I'll believe it when he plays baseball for a month. I'm rooting hard for the guy though. What an unbelievable shot in the arm he would be for the team.

"My hip feels great," Roberts continued. "I'm doing everything that I normally would be doing. I don't even really think about it much anymore. And as time continues to go by and it gets better and better, I think about it less and less now."

Roberts said he'll attend Fanfest Jan 19. Skipped it last year on doc's advice because of concussion symptoms, which have subsided.

Roberts plans on being opening day starter at 2B. Also wants to play beyond 2013, when contract runs out

"I'm doing as well as I've done in the last three years," Roberts, 35, said yesterday in a phone interview. "I'm pretty much doing everything. Health-wise, I'm probably ahead of where I'd normally be in the offseason for the first time in a long time."

http://www.masnsports.com/school_of_roch/2012/11/roberts-im-doing-as-well-as-ive-done-in-the-last-three-years.html?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter

[ChaosLex]

I have my doubts as well. I'm guessing so do many others.

Still, it's good to hear BRob is thinking positively.

[DrungoHazewood]

So I ran a query of all players who'd played between 25 and 200 games in their age 32-34 seasons. Roberts played 115. Then I ran another query, based on those results, for highest WAR totals from age 35-on.

The results? Ted Williams was by far the leader, since he returned from the Korean War as pretty much the same player he was before the war. Then there was Hank Greenberg, who was similarly effected by WWII. Then there was Luke Easter, who had some trouble breaking into the majors at an advanced age because of the color line.

There are only a small handful of semi-success stories that are truly similar to Roberts. Eric Davis returned from several years of injury and ineffectiveness to be great in his mid-30s. Darren Daulton had a nice bounceback at 35 before retiring. Rex Hudler never really was a full-time player, but he had a career year at 35. And Darryl Strawberry managed to stay clean and healthy enough at 36 to put up a near-.900 OPS as a DH for 100 games.

That's really it. If Roberts comes back and plays well he'll be in pretty rarified company. Almost nobody comes back from multi-year injuries at that age and truly plays well.

[Frobby]

I guess BRob hasn't been reading his obituaries on this board. I'd like nothing better than to see him contribute to another playoff run. I hope his self-confidence is justified.

[Snutchy]

So I ran a query of all players who'd played between 25 and 200 games in their age 32-34 seasons. Roberts played 115. Then I ran another query, based on those results, for highest WAR totals from age 35-on.

The results? Ted Williams was by far the leader, since he returned from the Korean War as pretty much the same player he was before the war. Then there was Hank Greenberg, who was similarly effected by WWII. Then there was Luke Easter, who had some trouble breaking into the majors at an advanced age because of the color line.

There are only a small handful of semi-success stories that are truly similar to Roberts. Eric Davis returned from several years of injury and ineffectiveness to be great in his mid-30s. Darren Daulton had a nice bounceback at 35 before retiring. Rex Hudler never really was a full-time player, but he had a career year at 35. And Darryl Strawberry managed to stay clean and healthy enough at 36 to put up a near-.900 OPS as a DH for 100 games.

That's really it. If Roberts comes back and plays well he'll be in pretty rarified company. Almost nobody comes back from multi-year injuries at that age and truly plays well.

There you go again. If you're not showing up at Hangout Nights during the week just for the sole purpose of being more awesome than me, you go and make posts like these.

[Roll Tide]

I have my doubts as well. I'm guessing so do many others.

Still, it's good to hear BRob is thinking positively.

I'm not buying !

[DrungoHazewood]

I guess BRob hasn't been reading his obituaries on this board. I'd like nothing better than to see him contribute to another playoff run. I hope his self-confidence is justified.

I think we'd all love to see the 2007 or 2005 Brian Roberts at the top of the lineup. But even absent his injuries it would be unlikely he's still an above-average second baseman at 35. At a normal rate of decline he'd be a 1-2 win player. With the injuries? Long odds.

So, I'll hope for a miracle but plan for him to be a marginal player, at best.

[Tony-OH]

The Orioles need to make the assumption that Roberts is no longer an effective major league player and have options at second base. If he's able to make an almost miraculous comeback into an effective major league player again,then great, shot in the arm for the O's. But the Orioles can't assume Roberts will be their second baseman next year and I doubt Dan Duquette does.

[Annie]

Outside of making it to the playoffs of course, I can't think of too much more that I would rather see than B-Rob playing second base again and using that arm.

I'm not going to be pessimistic about it, I just hope that he can make it back.

had to.

[Frobby]

I think we'd all love to see the 2007 or 2005 Brian Roberts at the top of the lineup. But even absent his injuries it would be unlikely he's still an above-average second baseman at 35. At a normal rate of decline he'd be a 1-2 win player. With the injuries? Long odds.

So, I'll hope for a miracle but plan for him to be a marginal player, at best.

After last year, the bar is pretty low. Andino was worth -0.1 rWAR, and had a .588 OPS. BRob could fall well short of being the "old BRob" and still provide an upgrade, if he could provide, say, .700-.720 OPS with a decent OBP and play adequate defense.

I'm not going to pre-judge the situation. BRob will come to spring training and show what he can do. I'm not writing him in as the everyday 2B, and I'm not writing him off, either.

[Frobby]

The Orioles need to make the assumption that Roberts is no longer an effective major league player and have options at second base. If he's able to make an almost miraculous comeback into an effective major league player again,then great, shot in the arm for the O's. But the Orioles can't assume Roberts will be their second baseman next year and I doubt Dan Duquette does.

That's why he got Casilla. He said he's not planning to do anything more, and I believe him.

[wildcard]

I think the O's have positioned themselves for whatever happens with BRob. If BRob starts then Casilla is the backup and Flaherty is at AAA. If BRob can't go. Its Flaherty and Casilla sharing 2nd.

I think the O's will probably make a decision on Nov 30 to non tender Andino or Casilla. No use to pay both of them 1.8M.

[SeaBird]

I'll believe it when I see it. The Orioles aren't going to just annoint him as the starting second baseman; he'll have to fight for it in ST. He's going on 35; has a year left at $10M; and has played all of 115 games in 3 seasons. Suddenly he's all better? Pay the man and move along.

[ScottP]

I'm not buying !

But the O's are paying

[ShaneDawg85]

Certainly the tone is more optimistic than a lot of what we've read in the past regarding his health, and he'll be at Fan Fest this year, too (who can we crucify this year ). But, as has been most of the case the last few years with Brian, I'm in a wait and see state with him, because that's really all you can do. The Orioles, as evidence by bringing in Casilla, aren't handing second over to him, and nor should they. Brian has to prove he's back to being capable of playing everyday, not what he once was, but just that he can take it. If he's healthy then I don't doubt he can do that, but what we'll get for him is anybody's guess, and as far as him wanting to play beyond this coming season, as much as I love Brian and what he's given to this franchise despite not getting very much back in return, right now I can't say I'd be inclined to bring him back given what I think he's going to want and what's best for the team going forward.