Schmuck brought up Hosmer and Smoak as potential 1B targets

[theobird]

Britton may just get you Justin Smoak, but not Hosmer. Hosmer would cost much, much more than just Britton. Getting Smoak out of Seattle, and back here with his buddy Weiters may be a smart move. I will leave that up to DD and Buck to decide. But if they announced tomorrow that they have sent Britton to Seattle for Smoak, I will not be upset at all. Britton would pitch well in that park, and I still think Smoak is a hitter.

[Bohs&O's]

How's Smoaks defense? I'd rather deal Jake A and/or Matusz instead of Britton. His sinker makes him a good pitcher to have in our stadium along with Ny and Boston. I think Hosmer would cost too much.

[CA-ORIOLE]

How's Smoaks defense? I'd rather deal Jake A and/or Matusz instead of Britton. His sinker makes him a good pitcher to have in our stadium along with Ny and Boston. I think Hosmer would cost too much.

Metrics say average.

[Bohs&O's]

Metrics say average.

That's makes me a little more hesitant to say go after him, but like you were saying earlier(I think it was you), I'd rather have the upside of him over what I know i'm getting in Reynolds. This kind of trade could be good for both teams with the players having a change of scenery.

[CA-ORIOLE]

Some food for thought:

Smoak's babip last year = .242 (.256 lifetime)

Smoak's lifetime batting in Rangers Ball Park (233 PA's) = .806 OPS

Smoak's lifetime batting in Safeco Park (561 PA's) = .639 OPS

Smoak's Fly ball percentage = 42% (very good for a power hitter - not so good in SAFECO)

Smoak's ML BA/OBP differential = 81 points

[LA2]

Well, I'd rather deal somoen like Arrieta than Britton, but yeah I'd rather have a better upside guy like Smoak than resigning Reynolds (who is likely to be only medicore anyways for 8 mil). I think some of you guys are discounting how brutal of an environment SEA is to hit in and how much it can affect a hitter. I woudn't be at all surprising to see Smaok put up similar numbers to what Reynolds gave last year with better future progression.

The stats don't really back up your repeated point about the "brutal" effect on Smoak of hitting in Safeco. During his career, he's had 20 or more plate appearances, i.e. a full series worth, in 13 parks; his OPS in Seattle ranks right in the middle: 7th out of 13. In fact, in 2011, his OPS was almost 100 points higher in Seattle than Away (.771 vs. .674 in 232 and 257 PA's, respectively).

[Bohs&O's]

I'd rather take a shot at Smoak developing than re-signing Reynolds. I suppose that puts Davis back at DH or LF/DH with Reimold/Betemit etc.

Heres what you said and I agree.lol

[CA-ORIOLE]

The stats don't really back up your repeated point about the "brutal" effect on Smoak of hitting in Safeco. During his career, he's had 20 or more plate appearances, i.e. a full series worth, in 13 parks; his OPS in Seattle ranks right in the middle: 7th out of 13. In fact, in 2011, his OPS was almost 100 points higher in Seattle than Away (.771 vs. .674 in 232 and 257 PA's, respectively).

Take a look at my post number 20. Also, most of the parks parks in the AL West lean towards being pitchers parks (except Texas where he's done fairly well). Somewhat anecdotal but he seems to have a pretty good correlation of hitting well in hitters parks and not so well in pitchers parks. That's normal, of course except his splits seem pretty exaggerated.

Adrian Beltre stated he changed his overall approcah to hitting because of SAFECO Park. Adjustments considered, he has been nowhere near the the same hitter. I'm not saying that it's automatic the Smoak will become a much better hitter away from SAFECO, I'm just saying some of the peripehral stats make that an intrigung possibility (FB%, babip, BA/OBP diff) imo. Not to mention, I think that it's a mistake to say his development is pretty much decided at this point.

[LA2]

Ehh, that's what most of us said about Davis (including me) and Smoak has a reputation as having much better plate discipline. Not to mention that's a pretty harsh hitting environment in SEA. If our scouts see some potential in Smoak, I'd definitely consider this move over paying Reynolds 8-9 mil.

Smoak does not have "much better plate discipline" than Mark Reynolds, who is the player he'd be replacing. In fact, it's much worse, if measured by either OBP or Pitches per Plate Appearance:

Smoak's P/PA 2010-12 with Texas and Seattle: 3.71; 3.98; 3.97; 3.76. Career: 3.87

Reynolds': 4.31; 4.22; 4.37. Career: 4.19

Smoak's OBP the last three seasons: .307; .323; .290

Reynolds': .320; .323; .335

Reynolds is on a slight upward trend, Smoak the opposite.

[LA2]

Take a look at my post number 20. Also, most of the parks parks in the AL West lean towards being pitchers parks (except Texas where he's done fairly well). Somewhat anecdotal but he seems to have a pretty good correlation of hitting well in hitters parks and not so well in pitchers parks. That's normal, of course except his splits seem pretty exaggerated.

Adrian Beltre stated he changed his overall approcah to hitting because of SAFECO Park. Adjustments considered, he has been nowhere near the the same hitter. I'm not saying that it's automatic the Smoak will become a much better hitter away from SAFECO, I'm just saying some of the peripehral stats make that an intrigung possibility (FB%, babip, BA/OBP diff) imo. Not to mention, I think that it's a mistake to say his development is pretty much decided at this point.

Ok, yeah, I posted before seeing post #20. Let me take a look.

[CA-ORIOLE]

Smoak does not have "much better plate discipline" than Mark Reynolds, who is the player he'd be replacing. In fact, it's much worse, if measured by either OBP or Pitches per Plate Appearance:

Smoak's P/PA 2010-12 with Texas and Seattle: 3.71; 3.98; 3.97; 3.76. Career: 3.87

Reynolds': 4.31; 4.22; 4.37. Career: 4.19

Smoak's OBP the last three seasons: .307; .323; .290

Reynolds': .320; .323; .335

Reynolds is on a slight upward trend, Smoak the opposite.

I was comparing Smoak to Chris Davis, not Mark Reynolds.

[LA2]

Take a look at my post number 20. Also, most of the parks parks in the AL West lean towards being pitchers parks (except Texas where he's done fairly well). Somewhat anecdotal but he seems to have a pretty good correlation of hitting well in hitters parks and not so well in pitchers parks. That's normal, of course except his splits seem pretty exaggerated.

Adrian Beltre stated he changed his overall approcah to hitting because of SAFECO Park. Adjustments considered, he has been nowhere near the the same hitter. I'm not saying that it's automatic the Smoak will become a much better hitter away from SAFECO, I'm just saying some of the peripehral stats make that an intrigung possibility (FB%, babip, BA/OBP diff) imo. Not to mention, I think that it's a mistake to say his development is pretty much decided at this point.

It's an intriguing possibility but, again, contradicted by some of the main stats. For example, he's hit significantly better in Oakland and KC than in Seattle, but worse in Boston and OPACY. I understand your speculation, especially on analogy to Beltre, but I don't think it's based on anything strong enough to be an important part of a trading decision.

[LA2]

I was comparing Smoak to Chris Davis, not Mark Reynolds.

That's why I said 'does not have "much better plate discipline" than Mark Reynolds, who is the player he'd be replacing.' I.e., I think Reynolds is perhaps just as important a comparison.

[Bulgaria]

Year ago, i'd love to make Smoak move.

Smoak is fine defender - not specticular but above average. The problem is that... well, Reynolds at least can knocks some homers. I just feel it's not the right time for big reclamation project like Smoak. But Britton for Smoak is fine trade. Questionable young pitcher for questionable young struggling hitter. I'd do it just because Britton seems like spot starter but wonder how much improvement Smoak can make for few months. Let's not forget our division is much harder for hitters than Seattle's one.

Eric Hosmer is whole different story. If we have the chance to buy low on him, we must be agressive momentally.

[MachadOboutManny]

For Hosmer you're talking Bundy.