Schmuck brought up Hosmer and Smoak as potential 1B targets

[Scrat1]

I think Arietta for Smoak is a pretty fair deal. I certainly would not trade Britton straight up for Smoak.

This sounds about right to me. I'm not sure I'd make that trade--and I'm not sure Seattle would either, considering the ease with which they come up with pitchers--but I think it's a relatively fair trade, value-wise. My uninformed opinion is that Smoak is a bust, but I still think he's a reasonable risk to take on. Maybe he'll end up as an Adam LaRoche type guy, which would be huge for the O's.

Hosmer, in my opinion, is a pipe dream. If the Royals are shopping him, they're shopping him as a major piece towards a big time arm, like Shields, Price or King Felix. Maybe, maybe they would do something like a straight swap between Bundy and Hosmer, but the Orioles wouldn't.

I honestly think the best option is to bring Reynolds back. I think he's being undervalued here. ~.800 OPS with solid defense at first isn't sexy, but it isn't exactly easy to come by either, especially in the Orioles' realistic price range.

[CA-ORIOLE]

Hosmer was the 3rd pick overall in the 2008 draft while Smoak was the 11th pick overall. It's way too early to give up on Smoak. He'll be decent somewhere (provided he gets out of Seattle). If we don't offer Reynolds and if no other options are available, we may have to consider a Britton for Smoak type of deal. I would much prefer to retain Reynolds and Britton. I feel like too many people have given up on Britton. I could see him having a breakout year in 2013.

I still like Britton and would prefer to give up Arrieta for Smoak. That said, these extreme sinkerballers really walk a fine line. With Britton it all seams to be about his release point being pretty much perfect and he's outstanding. He loses that release point, even a bit, and it tends to get ugly pretty quick. He's certainly got better secondaries than Bergesen but I'm not sure he's overwhelming in that respect.

[joe42]

He has had over 1400 PA and has a 683 OPS at first base. I don't think you can develop from that to "nugget".

If I am not mistaken, Beltre was not very good in that park either. Not saying he will hit like Beltre, but depending the cost could be a nice addition.imo.

[section18]

I like Smoak and Hosmer and have seen both of them play at OP. I think Hosmer is being over valued on here and Smoak is being under valued. Hosmer hit the ball really hard at a game I saw him play in this summer at OP. As I remember he had several hits and hit the ball to the wall several times.They are both tall 1B's and would be good additions. I am okay with trading Arrieta or Britton and possibly Matusz for either player. I think the best is yet to come for Smoak and Hosmer. If I had to pick one over the other it would be tough but I lean towards Hosmer.

[harp6]

And thats not all, more likely Bundy, Britton plus.

Most of the time, people around here tend to over inflate our prospects, not under inflate them. Bundy is the BEST pitching prospect in baseball on almost all current list. The scouts love him and I am sure that any other baseball GM would love to have him. Hosmer was a top 10 hitting prospect when he was a prospect. Even with Hosmer's soph. slump, he still has a ton of value and I would gladly take him in a trade. But there is no way that Hosmer is greater or equal to Bundy in a trade. KC would have to trade Hosmer + others to get Bundy, not the other way around. At this point, it would take a lot more for the O's to get Hosmer than what some people are offering here, but Bundy is our top prospect and he currently has more value than almost every other prospect in baseball from the past couple of years. There are only a few recent prospects from the last couple of years that I would trade Bundy straight up for and Hosmer is not one of them.

[luismatos4prez]

Smoak has been so bad that I wonder if Reynolds and Arrieta would bring him here. I think he could turn his career around here like Chris Davis did. I'd be for that trade.

[mark_beckens]

The stats don't really back up your repeated point about the "brutal" effect on Smoak of hitting in Safeco. During his career, he's had 20 or more plate appearances, i.e. a full series worth, in 13 parks; his OPS in Seattle ranks right in the middle: 7th out of 13. In fact, in 2011, his OPS was almost 100 points higher in Seattle than Away (.771 vs. .674 in 232 and 257 PA's, respectively).

You have to take into effect, travel, getting use to the hitting environment. He could be more comfortable hitting at home cause he plays their more, but his numbers are lower cause of the park. By the time he gets use to hitting in another park, series over, time to move on.

[mcinww0]

Smoak has been so bad that I wonder if Reynolds and Arrieta would bring him here. I think he could turn his career around here like Chris Davis did. I'd be for that trade.

I'm not sure why anyone would be high on Smoak other than because he was a high draft pick and he hit well in AAA in 2010. His highest MLB OPS is .719 and highest OBP is .323, which are pretty mediocre numbers even considering he plays in Seattle. When he went back to AAA in 2012 as a 25 year old he couldn't hit well. I wouldn't give up anything at all for a guy who might not make our team, and certainly not a guy with Arrieta's ceiling. He'd certainly be a downgrade over Reynolds, although he would be a bit cheaper.

Hosmer does intrigue me and I might straight up swap one of the cavalry for him. I doubt the Royals would part with their 3rd overall draft pick after one bad season in return for a young pitcher who may not ever really figure it out but has a high ceiling, which basically describes the entire cavalry.

[luismatos4prez]

I'm not sure why anyone would be high on Smoak other than because he was a high draft pick and he hit well in AAA in 2010. His highest MLB OPS is .719 and highest OBP is .323, which are pretty mediocre numbers even considering he plays in Seattle. When he went back to AAA in 2012 as a 25 year old he couldn't hit well. I wouldn't give up anything at all for a guy who might not make our team, and certainly not a guy with Arrieta's ceiling. He'd certainly be a downgrade over Reynolds, although he would be a bit cheaper.

Smoak's problems are hitting mechanics and confidence. He tweaked his swing after he went down and that's why he got hot again. If a hitting coach could help him keep his mechanics consistent, and he had a manager like Buck showing confidence in him, I think he could be a really good player.

[Roll Tide]

Hosmer is young and has upside ...But is .230 Avg & .633 OPS leave a lot to be desired. Smoak would have to be free at this point as far as im concerned.

[Frobby]

For Hosmer you're talking Bundy.

And thats not all, more likely Bundy, Britton plus.

Bundy > Hosmer, especially for KC, which needs arms. Britton certainly wouldn't be enough by himself. Maybe Britton and Schoop.

[Can_of_corn]

If I am not mistaken, Beltre was not very good in that park either. Not saying he will hit like Beltre, but depending the cost could be a nice addition.imo.

I posted his road OPS as well, would you be satisfied with that?

Some food for thought:

Smoak's babip last year = .242 (.256 lifetime)

Smoak's lifetime batting in Rangers Ball Park (233 PA's) = .806 OPS

Smoak's lifetime batting in Safeco Park (561 PA's) = .639 OPS

Smoak's Fly ball percentage = 42% (very good for a power hitter - not so good in SAFECO)

Smoak's ML BA/OBP differential = 81 points

Smoak has a career IFFB% of 12.8%, Davis has a 4% rate.

[joe42]

I posted his road OPS as well, would you be satisfied with that?

Mr Corn,

I actualy would prefer to give him a shot if Reynolds is non tendered. I dont believe Reynolds is worth 9 mil+. Smoak should be able to produce at least as well as Reynolds in 2012. And give equvielent defense. imo.

[clapdiddy]

Bundy > Hosmer, especially for KC, which needs arms. Britton certainly wouldn't be enough by himself. Maybe Britton and Schoop.

Actually, I'd say Bundy is WAY > Hosmer. His stats really fell off the table last year, and it appears he's not all that great defensively, either. Granted, he could have just had the sophomore slump, but I'm not sure that I'd give up both Britton and Schoop to get him.

[TXOriole]

I dont know that I have a problem acquiring a 1B the Rangers gave up on. The last one had his share of early career struggles and seems to have worked out ok. If he can be had cheap, I'm all for it. Maybe playing with his high school buddy will help the both of them as well...who knows.