Schmuck brought up Hosmer and Smoak as potential 1B targets

[CA-ORIOLE]

I posted his road OPS as well, would you be satisfied with that?

Smoak has a career IFFB% of 12.8%, Davis has a 4% rate.

Ok, so Smoak hits more popups than Davis does. Davis squares up balls exceptionally well that he hits (FYI, Davis's FB rate is only about 35%). I guess that would certainly partially explain Smoak's very low babip rate. Not sure if that's correctable or not.

I would imagine Davis has one of the lowest IFFB's in the majors. I'm not sure what an average IFFB rate is, but Smoak's is around 12.8% for his career and was only 6.5% in 2011 (maybe that means nothing, but maybe it means he's trying to do too much). Looks like guys like Beltre and Jones have IFFB's around 11% with lower FB rates while some other power hitters have lower IFFB's (7-8%).

Still, a 42% FB rate for a power hitter should mean quite a few more balls in the stands.

[LookinUp]

I like Chris Tillman, but he'd be the guy I'm shopping over Britton. I'll take the lefty sinker baller over the righty fly-ball pitcher in the AL East and in a franchise with Bundy and Gausman any day. I think, once fully developed, that Britton will be the better guy (contingent on the O's believing his shoulder will hold up, which may not be the case). I also think that Tillman would have more value right now based on his performance last year. Both are very vaulable because they're high upside pitchers who are cost controlled.

Hosmer is also very valuable, but pitching wins and KC isn't going to trade for a pitcher like Shields who's close to FA. If I'm KC, I do consider a 2-3 for 1 type of deal headlined by Tillman/Britton with a good second piece (Strop, Arrieta, Matusz, Schoop or E. Rodriguez) and a third piece with either current value (Ayala) or upside (Avery/Hoes/Rodriguez again).

If I'm Seattle, I do nothing unless I'm offered a similar deal. Selling low, particularly on a guy who showed more promise toward the end of last year, isn't really wise IMO. Unless they have strong feelings that he's not a fit, they should let the Smoak situation play out. Personally, I think they need to start building a team for that park. That means pitching, defense and speed, IMO. Smoak could really be the type of player who's just a much better fit for us than Seattle.

If I'm the O's and I can get Smoak for a significantly better deal than Hosmer I take that deal and hold onto as much pitching as possible. Still, I make a deal for one of the two and accept that losing some arms is part of the deal.

All of this is predicated on the O's having a plan for pitching beyond Bundy and Gausman. If we're not going to extend Chen/Hammel, the plan changes. You could shop them instead. Chen for Smoak + could work, for example, but I really doubt. I doubt KC goes for either since they'll need to be paid. A team like Detroit, Mets (Ike Davis), Angels, Seattle, Arizona (part of Upton deal) etc. could go for Hammel.

[Frobby]

I would imagine Davis has one of the lowest IFFB's in the majors. I'm not sure what an average IFFB rate is, but Smoak's is around 12.8% for his career and was only 6.5% in 2011 (maybe that means nothing, but maybe it means he's trying to do too much). Looks like guys like Beltre and Jones have IFFB's around 11% with lower FB rates while some other power hitters have lower IFFB's (7-8%).

Davis was 132nd of 143 players in IFFB%. The median is about 9.1%. Davis' 37.5% fly ball rate is slightly above the league median of 35%. All of the 11 players who have a lower IFFB% than Davis also had a lower fly ball percentage, many of them by a lot. So, it's quite rare to find a guy who hits as many fly balls as Davis but hits so few infield flies.

[CA-ORIOLE]

Davis was 132nd of 143 players in IFFB%. The median is about 9.1%. Davis' 37.5% fly ball rate is slightly above the league median of 35%. All of the 11 players who have a lower IFFB% than Davis also had a lower fly ball percentage, many of them by a lot. So, it's quite rare to find a guy who hits as many fly balls as Davis but hits so few infield flies.

Ok, thanks Frobby.

[Can_of_corn]

For the record I wasn't trying to stack the deck when comparing Smoak and Davis. They just happened to be the two names being discussed before. I was aware that Smoak had a tendency to hit pop ups but did not realize that Davis was so adept at avoiding them.

[Can_of_corn]

Mr Corn,

I actualy would prefer to give him a shot if Reynolds is non tendered. I dont believe Reynolds is worth 9 mil+. Smoak should be able to produce at least as well as Reynolds in 2012. And give equvielent defense. imo.

Just Corn is fine, or C_o_c. I would rather spend money then prospects at this point. O's system is too thin to be giving up talent based on when someone was drafted. How many of you folks would be interested in Smoak if he had been a third round pick?

As for first base, I would rather put Davis there and get a DH then pay Reynolds 9 million.

[NCRaven]

Mr Corn...

Just Corn is fine...

"Mr. Corn" :rofl:

[Frobby]

For the record I wasn't trying to stack the deck when comparing Smoak and Davis. They just happened to be the two names being discussed before. I was aware that Smoak had a tendency to hit pop ups but did not realize that Davis was so adept at avoiding them.

I think it's very interesting. I'm actually quite surprised to learn that Davis hits infield flies so rarely. Maybe it's simply that he's so strong that most of his pop-ups are caught by the outfielders.

[CA-ORIOLE]

I think it's very interesting. I'm actually quite surprised to learn that Davis hits infield flies so rarely. Maybe it's simply that he's so strong that most of his pop-ups are caught by the outfielders.

Probably part of it. I wasn't that surprised though. I think he has a pretty level swing and doesn't uppercut like a lot of HR hitters. I've stated before I think he could hit a lot more HR's by uppercutting the ball more (easy for me too say from my computer keyboard I guess). His LD% is relatively high as well. I just think he squares up balls well (when he actually hits them).

[Slappy]

The Orioles need to stop worrying so much about nickels and dimes and pay Reynolds $8-9 mil. That's a reasonable rate for his offensive production and defense at 1B.

[scOtt]

I like Schmuck. He's funny.

[scOtt]

The Orioles need to stop worrying so much about nickels and dimes and pay Reynolds $8-9 mil. That's a reasonable rate for his offensive production and defense at 1B.

I don't know if that's a reasonable rate... but I'd tender him. Lock him tf up! Keep your control.

Rather see them sign him 2/16+ years.

[zweem]

"I like Chris Tillman, but he'd be the guy I'm shopping over Britton. I'll take the lefty sinker baller over the righty fly-ball pitcher in the AL East"--------I think the league caught up with Britton by laying off anything below the belt. His sinker then ended up as a ball in the dirt.

[CA-ORIOLE]

"I like Chris Tillman, but he'd be the guy I'm shopping over Britton. I'll take the lefty sinker baller over the righty fly-ball pitcher in the AL East"--------I think the league caught up with Britton by laying off anything below the belt. His sinker then ended up as a ball in the dirt.

I think this is pretty close to my opinion. Basically, he has to thread the needle with a near perfect release point and all is good. He's off a bit and it's pretty rough sailing.

[Mayor McCheese]

"I like Chris Tillman, but he'd be the guy I'm shopping over Britton. I'll take the lefty sinker baller over the righty fly-ball pitcher in the AL East"--------I think the league caught up with Britton by laying off anything below the belt. His sinker then ended up as a ball in the dirt.

If Tillman really perfected his delivery and maintains his velocity, no way do I shop him. I'll take his curveball and hard 2-seamer over Brittons ineffective sinker any day.