John Sickels' Orioles Top 20

[skanar]

Came out today. Link

Christian Walker made the top 10. Michael Ohlman, Ty Kelly, and Brenden Webb all made the top 20. Zach Davies and Josh Hader did not; however, Sickels suggested that he found most of the O's low-end interchangeable and picked the prospects he found most interesting to put in the 15-20 range, not those who are necessarily the best.

The Orioles ended up with 131 points in my Sickels rating scheme, barring grade changes. This will result in the farm system ranking about 20th. That's worse than I thought it would be, but mostly because Machado graduated - if he hadn't, the O's would project to rank around 10th.

[waroriole]

I'll take Tony's rankings over anyone who does this nationally. Not trying to be a brown-noser, just that Tony knows more about these guys than the national guys.

[Frobby]

Not a bad list, though the omission of Hader is rather glaring. Still, omitting Hader at this stage may be defensible since we are talking about a pretty small sample at low levels of the minors from a guy who was a nobody on draft day. Missing Davies seems a bit more questionable, in a way, after a full year at Delmarva.

[skanar]

I'll take Tony's rankings over anyone who does this nationally. Not trying to be a brown-noser, just that Tony knows more about these guys than the national guys.

I generally agree; the value of someone like Sickels is that you get a set of ratings that is directly comparable to the rest of baseball.

[LookinUp]

I like that the man is honest in his assessments even if he didn't pick up on guys like Hader or Davies. Case in point:

16) Henry Urrutia, OF, Grade C: Borderline C+. Cuban defector, signed this summer for $778,500, but is still stalled with visa problems and hasn't played yet. I really have no idea where to rank him, but people will ask about him, so here he is.

I also like this:

The Orioles have the foundation of a pitching staff here, with two ace types in Bundy and Gausman, then some B-/C+ arms behind them who should at least help fill out a roster. Many of the Grade Cs are projectable and have talent as well, but are a long way from the majors (Moreno) or have command issues (Schrader, Rutledge).

I get the sense that Gausman is going to be a very good pitcher, and he might be under rated by the rank and file on this site.

[Frobby]

Here is a chart I've assembled of the 16 teams Sickels has evaluated so far. I awarded 4.0 points for an A player, 3.67 for a B+, 3.33 for a B+, etc.

	4.00	3.67	3.33	3.00	2.67	2.33	2.00	TotalSTL	2	1	2	2	5	8	0	2.816NYY	0	0	2	2	8	8	0	2.633ARI	0	2	0	5	7	2	3	2.5845OAK	0	0	1	4	6	3	5	2.417CLE	0	2	0	1	3	10	4	2.4825HOU	0	1	2	5	6	6	0	2.7665MIA	1	1	1	2	6	9	0	2.6995TOR	0	0	2	2	3	11	2	2.515CHC	1	0	2	1	8	8	0	2.683BAL 	1	1	0	1	3	7	6	2.3495PIT	1	1	3	2	4	9	0	2.7655DET	0	0	1	2	5	4	8	2.4SFG	0	0	3	1	5	11	0	2.5985KCR	0	0	2	3	6	7	2	2.5995ATL	0	0	0	2	10	8	0	2.567MIN	0	1	2	5	3	10	0	2.832

By this measure, the Orioles have the thinnest farm system of any team ranked so far. I realize that if you assigned more weight to the guys at the top, we'd look a little better. Still, it's depressing to see us ranked so low.

[skanar]

Here is a chart I've assembled of the 16 teams Sickels has evaluated so far. I awarded 4.0 points for an A player, 3.67 for a B+, 3.33 for a B+, etc.

Since 2008, I've been tracking Sickels' ratings. He averages, per year, 9 A grades, 11 A-, 46 B+, 72 B, 119 B-, and 283 C+. So all of the A, A-, and B+, and about half of the B prospects make a top 100 list, equivalent to the BA Top 100. I've been assigning point values (admittedly, just based on guessing) as follows:

40: A

30: A-

26: B+

15: B

8: B-

2: C+

Edit: I've been using these numbers since they seemed to make the most sense originally and I didn't want to change for a while. But I actually have begun to think lately the drop off is too slow; and a progression like 50-40-30-15-5-2 might be better. Some of the preliminary results on my BA Top 100 research suggest that there's a huge drop as you go 1-50, then things are flat but nonzero for about 100-150 more prospects, and everything after that is nearly worthless.

By this measure, the Orioles have 131 points and are near the bottom of those already ranked, a bit ahead of Cleveland and just barely ahead of Atlanta. Historically, here's how a score of 131 would rank:

2012: 21st (tie)

2011: 17th

2010: 20th

2009: 14th

2008: 21st

Historically, the average point total for a farm system in a given year is 149.3 (range 136-163); only two farm systems have ever scored above 300 (the 2008 Rays and 2011 Royals).

So far, Sickels is way out ahead of his historical norms in terms of grades (if you project from the current list); the average point total of the farm systems graded so far is 175.5, which is way above even the previous largest annual average (163.4). It's quite likely that he's doing most of the stronger farm systems first.

I would expect the Orioles to fall in the 17-23 range in most farm system rankings this year. It isn't good, but it's not awful, either. There have been no recent trades to add any talent to the farm and the Orioles have not been great at finding value in later rounds of the draft. Hopefully, DD&co have a plan to deal with the new draft structure and add as much talent as possible to the Orioles' system.

[Can_of_corn]

I would expect the Orioles to fall in the 17-23 range in most farm system rankings this year. It isn't good, but it's not awful, either. There have been no recent trades to add any talent to the farm and the Orioles have not been great at finding value in later rounds of the draft. Hopefully, DD&co have a plan to deal with the new draft structure and add as much talent as possible to the Orioles' system.

If by later you mean past the first 7 picks in the first round...

[eb45]

If Machado was still rookie eligible, where would the Orioles be? He'd have to be an A, right?

[skanar]

If Machado was still rookie eligible, where would the Orioles be? He'd have to be an A, right?

He'd absolutely have to be an A. By my system, that would add 40 points making the O's total 171. That ranks in the #8-12 range, historically.

[Stotle]

I'll take Tony's rankings over anyone who does this nationally. Not trying to be a brown-noser, just that Tony knows more about these guys than the national guys.

Come on, you have to at least give our Baseball Prospectus list a shot....

[Frobby]

Come on, you have to at least give our Baseball Prospectus list a shot....

When does it come out? Nice to hear from you, Stotle.

[Stotle]

When does it come out? Nice to hear from you, Stotle.

Thank you, sir. Had some down time and thought I'd pop in and say hi.

Working in draft order, so the Orioles are (for a nice change) towards the back of the list. We just published the Mariners list so O's likely not out for another month or so. It's the curse of being a playoff team!

[waroriole]

Come on, you have to at least give our Baseball Prospectus list a shot....

I didn't know you were at BP. Good to see you.

[Stotle]

I didn't know you were at BP. Good to see you.

Thanks. I was hired by BP in September as one of a few individuals brought on to assist Parks in taking over for Goldstein on the Minor League front. I'm also leading the draft coverage there.