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DD on hot stove next live from Winter Meetings (Again 12:40)


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Holy cow....Napoli gets 3/39 from the Sux. That seems AWFULLY high.

In the four years since he became a semi-regular he's been worth something like 11-12 wins, or just shy of three a season. A $5M per win they're paying for 8 wins over three years, or 2.6 per year. Sounds just about right, if they're assuming inflation will rise at about the same rate he declines.

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DRS... as in +/-? On Bill James' site they have him as a -2 first baseman in '12. Total Zone and the other bb-ref metrics all have him below average. Fangraphs... still can't get that to work here at work for some reason.

Anyway. For a $14M valuation in arb the O's would have to think he'd be open-market valued at about $20M, or 4+ wins. Given that he averages under 2.0 oWAR per season he'd have to be a +20 first baseman to merit a $14M arb settlement. That just seems absurd.

Plus minus is a componet of DRS. I will look for the post, but it's my understanding that Reynolds went from a minus 17 in the first half to a minus 3 at some point towards the end of the season. Basically making him a plus 14 defender in the second half.

Edit: Here is the info about Reynolds defense in the second half (GFP's are basically video scout interpretations and supplement +/- (in addition to other factors) to form DRS (i.e. Fielding Bible).

http://insider.espn.go.com/mlb/playo...-teams-defense

Mark Reynolds has been much maligned for his poor defensive play in his career, and with good reason. He has produced a terrible minus-51 DRS over the past five seasons at third base. Yet, when the Orioles moved him to first in the middle of the season, Reynolds responded. Since the All-Star break, he leads all players in baseball in good fielding plays, which are nonroutine defensive plays a typical fielder might be unable to make. In fact, his 58 GFP tally in the second half of the season is an amazing 13 more than the closest man to him, Ryan Zimmerman. Reynolds has been one of the main contributors in a huge defensive turnaround for the Orioles, who went from a minus-17 DRS defense in the first half to a plus-4 DRS defense in the second half.

For those wondering, DRS=Defensive Runs Saves and GFP=Good Fielding Plays

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DD probably thinks Endy Chavez is signing for $8 million too.

I think this was a face-saving move. He didn't want to insult Reynolds by saying - he's worth $6 million to us. So by overvaluing him in a public statement he's complimenting him thus maybe he leaves the door open?

I agree. If the O's would have been interested at $9 mm but thought he might get $12-14 mm in arbitration, they would have had some negotiations with Reynolds' agent before the non-tender deadline.

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In the four years since he became a semi-regular he's been worth something like 11-12 wins, or just shy of three a season. A $5M per win they're paying for 8 wins over three years, or 2.6 per year. Sounds just about right, if they're assuming inflation will rise at about the same rate he declines.

A majority of that WAR total came in 2011 with his 1.046 OPS. His other years have been .842, .784, .812. With rWAR of 2.7, 1.7 and 1.4.

Is he going to C? He loses a lot of value if he's just a 1B.

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I really think that if Napoli had a better reputation then he would have been a target for us. I don't think he is a "Buck type of guy though" according to some articles that I've read.

Same thing I was thinking. I have heard on many occasions that he is just not a great guy (putting it delicately) and not good for the clubhouse. I never really wanted him in the first place, and certainly not at 3/39.

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Plus minus is a componet of DRS. I will look for the post, but it's my understanding that Reynolds went from a minus 17 in the first half to a minus 3 at some point towards the end of the season. Basically making him a plus 14 defender in the second half.

Edit: Here is the info about Reynolds defense in the second half (gfp's are basically video scout interpretations and supplement +/- (in addition to other factors) to form DRS.

Ok, so the team went from -17 to +4, and Reynolds was a part of that. I wonder how they count GFPs, and if they're subject to scorer/stringer bias. I'm still not convinced that his wild diving was anything more than him learning the position on the fly, doing things unconventially, and not having anyone tell him to stop and do it the "right" way.

It strains credibility that he could be among the worst defenders in a generation at third, but basically the best first baseman in the world within a few weeks of shifting position. There have only been two players since 1990 who were +20 in a whole season at first (by bb-ref).

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Ok, so the team went from -17 to +4, and Reynolds was a part of that. I wonder how they count GFPs, and if they're subject to scorer/stringer bias. I'm still not convinced that his wild diving was anything more than him learning the position on the fly, doing things unconventially, and not having anyone tell him to stop and do it the "right" way.

It strains credibility that he could be among the worst defenders in a generation at third, but basically the best first baseman in the world within a few weeks of shifting position. There have only been two players since 1990 who were +20 in a whole season at first (by bb-ref).

I think the important part is here:

Since the All-Star break, he leads all players in baseball in good fielding plays, which are nonroutine defensive plays a typical fielder might be unable to make. In fact, his 58 GFP tally in the second half of the season is an amazing 13 more than the closest man to him, Ryan Zimmerman.

Yeah, I'm not sure what to make of it myself. I do think Reynolds was quite exceptional on scoops and remember reading something else about his scoop rate also being very high, which would also help to support the above stats.

I was just pointing out that there is statistical data that Reynolds and his agent could use to argue that Reynolds had developed into an elite first baseman. Not saying I really agree with it, but I would expect a good agent to use it and maybe that was part of DD's "calculations".

My understanding is that GFP's are rated by video scouts and include certain classififications of plays not captured by plus-minus. Since that implies subjective criteria, it's fair to assume there could be observational bias. I really don't have any idea as to their process and QA techniques. I would assume scoops by first baseman would be part of that data. Since GFP's are fairly new, you could start seeing higher ranges of performance data for positions like first base in the future.

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His splits in Fenway were like Luke Scott in Detroit. Or Babe Ruth anywhere.

Yea, in 73 plate appearances. They couldn't be so dumb as to offer a deal based on 19 games worth of performance.

Adam Jones hits .443 with a 1.200 OPS in Nats' Park in a similar number of times up. Surprised the Nats didn't offer Strasburg and Harper straight up for him! :)

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DRS... as in +/-? On Bill James' site they have him as a -2 first baseman in '12. Total Zone and the other bb-ref metrics all have him below average. Fangraphs... still can't get that to work here at work for some reason.

Anyway. For a $14M valuation in arb the O's would have to think he'd be open-market valued at about $20M, or 4+ wins. Given that he averages under 2.0 oWAR per season he'd have to be a +20 first baseman to merit a $14M arb settlement. That just seems absurd.

And why aren't you working for a major league baseball team? You so cool man.

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