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DD on hot stove next live from Winter Meetings (Again 12:40)


Bohs&O's

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That would be the worst idea ever.

Wieters MIGHT get Dickey or Shields straight up, and Wieters is 2x the player and 10x the man Arencibia is.

(those stats are loose estimations on my part)

Wieters would easily net either P, possibly both if they were on the same team.

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I'm not as confident as you. Dickey is the reigning Cy Young winner. Matt Wieters has a gold glove and some slightly above average hitting stats.

He also led all Catchers in WAR in 2011.

3 years of Wieters, at arbitration prices, is worth substantially more then one season of Dickey.

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He also led all Catchers in WAR in 2011.

3 years of Wieters, at arbitration prices, is worth substantially more then one season of Dickey.

In fact, quantifing that is fairly easy, if still a guess:

Dickey, assuming he's going to continue his 2012 successes, is something like a 5-win player, valued at $25M-ish for his one season under contract. He's paid $5M next year, for a surplus value in the neighborhood of $20M.

Wieters has been worth a bit over 10 wins over the last three years. Given his age and experience I think it's reasonble to say he'll be worth at least that if healthy, and not unreasonable to expect more. So let's say 10-15 wins over three years, valued at $50-75M. Let's assume he's paid by the 40/60/80 arb approximation of his value, so that would pay him between 7/10/13 and 10/13/20. You might argue that catchers make less in arb because of the uncertainty in their defensive and pitch calling abilities... so knock a few dollars off if you see fit. But in any case, his surplus value would be between $20M and $32M, give or take.

So, actually, because Dickey has a very team-friendly deal, the high end of his value for one year overlaps with the lower end of Wieters' value for three.

But it's not difficult to see a scenario where Wieters improves, Dickey regresses a bit from a Cy Young season, and Wieters ends up being much more valuable.

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