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Tigers lock up Dontrelle; 3 years, $29 Mil.


Elbren

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Yeah I would love to have Willis on that contract. He had an off year last year with his era at 5.17. The last three years from 2004-2006 his era has been 4.02, 2.63, 3.87, respectively. So I expect him to perform pretty well this year. He has had much better seasons than Silva, who should never have gotten 4/$48 mil.

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Willis is a pretty good deal at that price. As long as the Tigers understand he's more of an average innings eater than a star. His ERA has doubled over the past two years, his strikeout rate has stagnated at 6.0, his walk rate has increased, his HR/9 has gone up at the same alarming rate as his walks, and he's not been particularly lucky/unlucky with his balls in play or pen support.

Coming to the stronger league, while staying in a similar pitcher's park he'll probably see his ERA go up by half a run or so over his 2008 projection as a Marlin. I'd guess he's good for a 4.75 +/- 0.50. You can live with that at his salary as long as the 1000 innings he's thrown before his 26th birthday doesn't catch up with him.

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Guest BaltiJo

I know pitchers aren't really looked at as offensive players, but does Dontrelle's role diminish in situations where he doesn't get to bat much? In other words, does he become a less dynamic and therefore less valuable player in the AL?

Looking over his stats, he's got a decent batting record. Furthermore, I got to see him hit a grand slam at Shea Stadium last year, which was mighty exciting.

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  • 5 months later...

I'm sorry, but I can't go along with all the praise for this deal. This is a guy who had a 5.17 ERA in the NL in a pitcher friendly park last year, and it's not like his indicators were good. And this year, he's only pitched 10 innings, and has amazingly walked 16 batters while striking out 3, not exactly inspiring confidence in this deal. Some other absurd deals don't justify this.

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I'm sorry, but I can't go along with all the praise for this deal. This is a guy who had a 5.17 ERA in the NL in a pitcher friendly park last year, and it's not like his indicators were good. And this year, he's only pitched 10 innings, and has amazingly walked 16 batters while striking out 3, not exactly inspiring me to want to give him that type of contract. Some other absurd deals don't justify this.
I thought it was a dumb contract at the time too. Dontrelle is done-ski as anything more than a #4/5 who can eat some innings.
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