Royals getting Shields and Wade Davis for Wil Myers and other prospects

[Frobby]

They still can't score runs: 12 in the AL last year in runs.

I think they'll do better. They have a pretty young lineup with Hosmer (.663 OPS at age 22) and Moustakas (.708 OPS at age 23). Salvador Perez (.798 OPS at age 22) only played beginning in late June. Their entire lineup is under 30.

One thing we've learned -- if you can't pitch, you can't win. If you can pitch, you have a decent chance to win. So in the short run, KC is much better off with Shields, Guthrie and Santana than with the guys who were pitching for them last year.

[Number5]

I do not follow the Royals closely, but looking at this trade makes me think that Moore felt that his job is on the line if the team doesn't improve this year. I really can't think of any other explanation of why he would do this deal.

[Whammer]

Naturally he said it better than I, but this is exactly how I felt about the deal when I heard it.

KC are morons

Rosenthal loves the move KC made. "obtaining 40 percent of their 2013 starting rotation Sunday night without trading a single major leaguer".

http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/kansas-city-royals-gm-dayton-moore-right-move-james-shields-wade-davis-trade-tampa-bay-rays-wil-myers-120912

OK now, go ahead and bash Rosenthal. He doesn't know what he's talking about, blah, blah, blah.

[waroriole]

Rosenthal loves the move KC made. "obtaining 40 percent of their 2013 starting rotation Sunday night without trading a single major leaguer".

http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/kansas-city-royals-gm-dayton-moore-right-move-james-shields-wade-davis-trade-tampa-bay-rays-wil-myers-120912

OK now, go ahead and bash Rosenthal. He doesn't know what he's talking about, blah, blah, blah.

Davis is probably in the pen, so 20%.

[eb45]

Rosenthal loves the move KC made. "obtaining 40 percent of their 2013 starting rotation Sunday night without trading a single major leaguer".

http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/kansas-city-royals-gm-dayton-moore-right-move-james-shields-wade-davis-trade-tampa-bay-rays-wil-myers-120912

OK now, go ahead and bash Rosenthal. He doesn't know what he's talking about, blah, blah, blah.

Yeah and if the Orioles traded Dylan Bundy and Jonathan Schoop and Kevin Gausman for Bruce Chen and Jonathan Sanchez then they could have done that too. This argument holds no water.

I do not understand the love affair all of baseball seems to hold for James Shields. He is a #3 starter, a #4 on a good team. When he's good, he's very, very good, but when he's not, he's mediocre. If you only look at his good starts, then maybe you can squint your way into seeing him as being worth Wil Myers and Jake Odorizzi. But a pitcher is not only his good starts, especially when he's 31 and has a track record of being generally just "pretty good" with occasional years where everything breaks right and he's an ace, but just as many years where everything breaks wrong and he isn't an ML pitcher. Wade Davis is a back end guy who now has to readjust to starting after being in the bullpen for a full year.

The Royals got two years of Shields, who isn't a frontline starter, and three or four of Davis for six or seven of Wil Myers, who could very well be a stud, and Jake Odorizzi, who should at least be Wade Davis and could be Jeremy Hellickson.

It's funny, because we just had the discussion about how the Royals were maybe the only team in baseball that uses stats to back up scouting rather than vice versa, and this is the kind of deal you only make if that's how you're looking at it. Because James Shields is only this good if you ignore his entire body of work to focus on his occasional great games, which is what you do if you don't look at stats first.

[Whammer]

The Royals got two years of Shields, who isn't a frontline starter, and three or four of Davis for six or seven of Wil Myers, who could very well be a stud, and Jake Odorizzi, who shouldat least be Wade Davis and could be Jeremy Hellickson.

Yeah - if they handed out rings for "could" and "should", the Rays definitely got the better end of this deal.

[waroriole]

Yeah - if they handed out rings for "could" and "should", the Rays definitely got the better end of this deal.

So would you trade Bundy for Willingham? Gausman for Morse?

[mark_beckens]

Yeah and if the Orioles traded Dylan Bundy and Jonathan Schoop and Kevin Gausman for Bruce Chen and Jonathan Sanchez then they could have done that too. This argument holds no water.

I do not understand the love affair all of baseball seems to hold for James Shields. He is a #3 starter, a #4 on a good team. When he's good, he's very, very good, but when he's not, he's mediocre. If you only look at his good starts, then maybe you can squint your way into seeing him as being worth Wil Myers and Jake Odorizzi. But a pitcher is not only his good starts, especially when he's 31 and has a track record of being generally just "pretty good" with occasional years where everything breaks right and he's an ace, but just as many years where everything breaks wrong and he isn't an ML pitcher. Wade Davis is a back end guy who now has to readjust to starting after being in the bullpen for a full year.

The Royals got two years of Shields, who isn't a frontline starter, and three or four of Davis for six or seven of Wil Myers, who could very well be a stud, and Jake Odorizzi, who should at least be Wade Davis and could be Jeremy Hellickson.

It's funny, because we just had the discussion about how the Royals were maybe the only team in baseball that uses stats to back up scouting rather than vice versa, and this is the kind of deal you only make if that's how you're looking at it. Because James Shields is only this good if you ignore his entire body of work to focus on his occasional great games, which is what you do if you don't look at stats first.

Shields is better then any SP'er we have.

[Frobby]

Yeah and if the Orioles traded Dylan Bundy and Jonathan Schoop and Kevin Gausman for Bruce Chen and Jonathan Sanchez then they could have done that too. This argument holds no water.

I do not understand the love affair all of baseball seems to hold for James Shields. He is a #3 starter, a #4 on a good team.

That is overstating the case. The guy throws a ton of innnings (222 innings a year on average for the last six years), at a 107 ERA+. That's extremely valuable.

[wildbillhiccup]

Yeah and if the Orioles traded Dylan Bundy and Jonathan Schoop and Kevin Gausman for Bruce Chen and Jonathan Sanchez then they could have done that too. This argument holds no water.

I do not understand the love affair all of baseball seems to hold for James Shields. He is a #3 starter, a #4 on a good team. When he's good, he's very, very good, but when he's not, he's mediocre. If you only look at his good starts, then maybe you can squint your way into seeing him as being worth Wil Myers and Jake Odorizzi. But a pitcher is not only his good starts, especially when he's 31 and has a track record of being generally just "pretty good" with occasional years where everything breaks right and he's an ace, but just as many years where everything breaks wrong and he isn't an ML pitcher. Wade Davis is a back end guy who now has to readjust to starting after being in the bullpen for a full year.

The Royals got two years of Shields, who isn't a frontline starter, and three or four of Davis for six or seven of Wil Myers, who could very well be a stud, and Jake Odorizzi, who should at least be Wade Davis and could be Jeremy Hellickson.

It's funny, because we just had the discussion about how the Royals were maybe the only team in baseball that uses stats to back up scouting rather than vice versa, and this is the kind of deal you only make if that's how you're looking at it. Because James Shields is only this good if you ignore his entire body of work to focus on his occasional great games, which is what you do if you don't look at stats first.

With all due respect, Shields IS a frontline starter. His respective era over the last five years has been 3.21, 3.67, 3,46, and 3.84, and his career average era is 3.68. He's among the league leaders in strikeouts each year (averaged over 8 per 9 innings for the last three years) and with the exception of 2010, has maintained a very respectable WHIP. And he's done all this in the best division in baseball. If this is what you consider "pretty good," then what's great? Tom Seaver?

As many have side, time will tell who "won" the trade, but there's no questin that it filled a need for both teams. Both teams traded from what the perceived to be a position of strength to fill a need, with KC looking to win now and Tampa having a bit more of an eye towards the future.

[luismatos4prez]

Yeah - if they handed out rings for "could" and "should", the Rays definitely got the better end of this deal.

That's a terrible argument. Joe Saunders and Jeremy Guthrie are consistent. Should we trade Bundy for Guthrie because he only could be an ace?

The Rays got the better end of this deal because they are working in the long term. The Royals traded the farm for a very good pitcher, but they still won't win the World Series and then they'll feel very foolish. It was a desperate move by a desperate GM who feels the hot seat under him.

[isestrex]

Yeah - if they handed out rings for "could" and "should", the Rays definitely got the better end of this deal.

By eliminating "could" and "should", you are basically eliminating all future analysis from the deal and taking it purely at face value for the present. By this argument, a strong case for Royals winning this deal does indeed exist.

However, we live in a time where there are a lot of smart people out there who make a good living analyzing the potential future of major league baseball players. They aren't perfect, but they're pretty darn accurate most of the time. Because of their tract record and performance, I feel very confident in using the words "could" and "should" in my arguments in bashing the Royals for this deal. Based on all that we know about the players involved, this trade should look like a robbery in 5 years.

[Whammer]

That's a terrible argument. Joe Saunders and Jeremy Guthrie are consistent. Should we trade Bundy for Guthrie because he only could be an ace?

The Rays got the better end of this deal because they are working in the long term. The Royals traded the farm for a very good pitcher, but they still won't win the World Series and then they'll feel very foolish. It was a desperate move by a desperate GM who feels the hot seat under him.

If Myers becomes the next Felix Pie and Odorizzi becomes the next Adam Loewen, and KC makes a run at the playoffs in 2013, would you still think the Rays got the better end?

It's ridiculous to declare a winner or loser at this point. It was a fair trade for both teams. There's risk with all trades.

[luismatos4prez]

If Myers becomes the next Felix Pie and Odorizzi becomes the next Adam Loewen, and KC makes a run at the playoffs in 2013, would you still think the Rays got the better end?

It's ridiculous to declare a winner or loser at this point. It was a fair trade for both teams. There's risk with all trades.

You have to look at the risk involved for both teams and weigh them against each other. The Royals sold the farm for no reason. The Rays still have a great, young rotation and now three more awesome prospects.

If this trade doesn't work out for the Royals, meaning Shields doesn't take them to the promised land, heads will roll and the franchise will be set back a few years. If this trade doesn't work out for the Rays, they'll be absolutely fine. They have Price, Moore, Hellickson, and Neimann still on the roster.

[CA-ORIOLE]

With all due respect, Shields IS a frontline starter. His respective era over the last five years has been 3.21, 3.67, 3,46, and 3.84, and his career average era is 3.68. He's among the league leaders in strikeouts each year (averaged over 8 per 9 innings for the last three years) and with the exception of 2010, has maintained a very respectable WHIP. And he's done all this in the best division in baseball. If this is what you consider "pretty good," then what's great? Tom Seaver?

As many have side, time will tell who "won" the trade, but there's no questin that it filled a need for both teams. Both teams traded from what the perceived to be a position of strength to fill a need, with KC looking to win now and Tampa having a bit more of an eye towards the future.

Not sure where you're getting those ERA numbers for Shields from, but his ERA was 5+ in 2010. Looks like he FIP's out to about 3.84/3.62 SIERA,/3.86 tERA. He's certainly a good pitcher.

Half of his stats are accumulated on one of the most friendly pitching environments in baseball. His career away ERA out of Tropicana is 4.54. I like Shields, and his last 2 years have been exceptionally good. His changeup is about the best there is right now. Maybe he's one of those guys that will excel in that 28-32 age band like many pitchers do, but I agree with eb45 that his overall track record doesn't indicate a TOR.