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Buck called Davis 3 weeks ago and informed he would be the 2013 1st baseman.


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I take more from his other 183 games where he was considered a decent defensive first baseman. I don't have a calculator but 183 is much larger than 38. I expect the fact that he knows he will be the full time first baseman to mean he will do better next year.

I thought Davis went into 2012 as the full time first baseman. Reynolds was the full time 3B. I am not wishing Davis any ill will. I hope he can hold down the spot. However, DeMarlo Hale was the infield coach last year and he was suppose to be highly thought of also. Davis still didn't do well. I will feel a whole lot better when Davis' actions speak louder than his words.

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I can't believe he would actually just say that to the media. Shouldn't every professional take anything said between himself and the manager in private, regarding future events, to be confidential? Bizarre. Buck shouldn't be put into the position of now having to answer that same question, 'Is Davis the starting 1st baseman'. Buck clearly doesn't like to get backed into that corner.

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OK...sounds good....so it sounds like our lineup is set:

C - Wieters

1B - Davis

2B - Roberts/Casilla

SS - Hardy

3B - Machado

LF - McLouth

CF - Jones

RF - Markakis

DH - Betemit/Reimold

OF - Robinson

I'm guessing that's the position players we go north with. Obviously, if Roberts is not back, they will let Casilla play second and have another utility guy.

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OK...sounds good....so it sounds like our lineup is set:

C - Wieters

1B - Davis

2B - Roberts/Casilla

SS - Hardy

3B - Machado

LF - McLouth

CF - Jones

RF - Markakis

DH - Betemit/Reimold

OF - Robinson

I'm guessing that's the position players we go north with. Obviously, if Roberts is not back, they will let Casilla play second and have another utility guy.

Need a backup catcher there. Casilla, Reimold, Teagarden, and Valencia is my guess at the bench.

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Assuming Davis can play an average first base, I'm comfortable with the position players we have. But if they aren't going to upgrade at 1B/DH, then I'd really like to see those resources used elsewhere. For example, instead of signing Saunders, maybe sign Marcum.

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Errors are not charged to the 1B when the throw bounces. That is one of the areas that Davis had big problems with last year. Not being able to scoop throws. Reynolds was excellent at that skill.

Davis started 38 games at 1B last year. That is 23% of the season. That's a pretty good trial. I hope they practice the heck out of him at 1B this spring. I hope he can improve.

According to DRS, Davis was a minus 4 in GFP's (good fielding plays) at first base last year while Reynolds was a plus 4 in that category. That's an 8 "run" differential which is huge considering the number of innings we're talking about here. GFP's are plays that do not include range (something Davis appears to be better at than Reynolds) and do include scoops/scoop rate among other factors. So in this case, there does appear to be some statistical validity to what our eyes told last year.

Interestingly, the raw number of scoops per inning favors Davis over Reynolds. Davis had 21 scoops in only 343 innings at first base while Reynolds had 43 scoops in 957 innings last year. Meaning Davis got a heck of a lot more bad throws (rate) than Reynolds did (which makes sense, since Reynolds and Betemit where his primary third basemen). Of course the scoop "rate" is what tells the story and I don't have that data. Somebody with a Bill James account could probably shed more light on it.

The good news is that scoop rates typically aren't major factors in first base defense. Usually less than 25% in significant cases, with 75% or more of value attributed to range. Also, Davis's GFP's in previous years appear neutral.

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According to DRS, Davis was a minus 4 in GFP's (good fielding plays) at first base last year while Reynolds was a plus 4 in that category. That's an 8 "run" differential which is huge considering the number of innings we're talking about here. GFP's are plays that do not include range (something Davis appears to be better at than Reynolds) and do include scoops/scoop rate among other factors. So in this case, there does appear to be some statistical validity to what our eyes told last year.

Interestingly, the raw number of scoops per inning favors Davis over Reynolds. Davis had 21 scoops in only 343 innings at first base while Reynolds had 43 scoops in 957 innings last year. Meaning Davis got a heck of a lot more bad throws (rate) than Reynolds did (which makes sense, since Reynolds and Betemit where his primary third basemen). Of course the scoop "rate" is what tells the story and I don't have that data. Somebody with a Bill James account could probably shed more light on it.

The good news is that scoop rates typically aren't major factors in first base defense. Usually less than 25% in significant cases, with 75% or more of value attributed to range.

That's a great point! Never even thought about Davis having to catch his balls from Betemit and Reynolds vs Reynolds catching his from Machado.

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Guest rochester
And yet, Dan Duquette was being quoted as late as Nov. 27-28 as saying they were going to have discussions about keeping Reynolds. I'm still not happy about him making that statement.

Frobby - It is unusual for you to be stuck on something. It seems that (at least) the way communicates there may be more to the Reynolds debacle than meets the eye. I am not saying anyone is lying, etc. but I am not sure it fits.

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Machado sailed a few in there as well. He did great last year considering but he definitely needs to work on the throws from third.

Yeah, I really can't say if a bad throw from Machado is any better than a bad throw from Betemit/Reynolds. In the end it should be more about the rate of efficiency in handling them (in evaluating the first baseman anyways) .

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