One scout's early take on the 2013 Orioles and the AL East

[Can_of_corn]

I stopped reading once he mentioned protection.

[ShaneDawg85]

It's amazing how people within MLB see with absolute clarity what the Orioles' situation is like, but a lot of fans on the OH that follow the team religiously keep saying that we're going to be okay when we won't. Roy gets it, Tony gets it, other sports writers get it, but for a lot of the OH mainstays, few seem to realize that we succeeded through a combination of luck, players over-performing and the Red Sox falling apart.

The Red Sox players have something to prove and they will score and score often. Blue Jays are going to be monsters. Yankees and Rays will not go away.

These are the best points:

Even if Baseball America did a comprehensive analysis of the reality of our situation, you'd still get someone here saying that it isn't the case. We do need a MOO hitter. All the name calling and naysaying won't change that. That's what a lot of us have been saying.

The ostrich syndrome is getting out of hand these days.

MSK

No more than your broken record syndrome.

ShaneDawg85

[MemorialStadKid]

No more than your broken record syndrome.

ShaneDawg85

Sure, call it what you wish, dismiss me if you wish, but it doesn't make me wrong.

I want the Orioles to win.

We had one miracle season on the cheap and Angelos believes that by not investing in the team we can recreate that by continuing not to invest. How does that make any sense?

What's scary, is how many fans are on board with that lunacy.

MSK

[Frobby]

Sure, call it what you wish, dismiss me if you wish, but it doesn't make me wrong.

I want the Orioles to win.

We had one miracle season on the cheap and Angelos believes that by not investing in the team we can recreate that by continuing not to invest. How does that make any sense?

What's scary, is how many fans are on board with that lunacy.

MSK

It is possible to be dissatisfied with what the Orioles have done this winter, and at the same time have good reason to believe that the Orioles will be competitive again in 2012.

Most of these points have been discussed to death. Everyone knows that even if the bullpen is above average again in 2013, we won't have nearly as good a record in one run games and extra inning games. I don't know a single poster on this board who expects that to happen again, or who expects the bullpen to be as good in 2013 as it was in 2012. We all know the bullpen will slip some.

But what you and those who agree with you seem to ignore is that the Orioles played great baseball in August and September, and that wasn't luck. It was a function of plugging a gaping hole in LF with a decent ballplayer, and plugging a huge defensive hole at 3B with a plus defender who also showed he could hit pretty well for a kid who just turned 20. The Orioles team that finished the year was a very good team despite not having Markakis for the final month and despite not having Reimold. The Orioles outscored their opponents by 43 runs after the all-star break (which includes 3+ weeks before McLouth and Machado got called up), and their pythagorean winning percentage over that span was .563, which translates to a 91-win season over 162 games. And that has nothing to do with winning one-run games and extra inning games.

This was a very good team at the end of the year, and it's a good team now. Would I like to see the Orioles make some moves to solidify their position? Yes, I would. But if this scout thinks the O's are going to slide back into oblivion if they don't make some dramatic move, well, I disagree.

[SilentJames]

Personally, I hope that the players keep hearing they are DOA in January. I think the constant questioning of their season fueled them down the stretch.

[Tony-OH]

Folks, the only trolling go on in this thread are the folks going after MSK. He has a different opinion than you, that's fine. Calling him a troll when he wrote a well thought out response is actually the trolling. His comments are on par with teh subject of the thread. All views, as long as they expressed well are allowed on this board. Let's keep it on the subject and off each other.

[ChaosLex]

Folks, the only trolling go on in this thread are the folks going after MSK. He has a different opinion than you, that's fine. Calling him a troll when he wrote a well thought out response is actually the trolling. His comments are on par with teh subject of the thread. All views, as long as they expressed well are allowed on this board. Let's keep it on the subject and off each other.

Tony, what do you think of the scout's opinion? Do you give it much clout?

[Tony-OH]

Tony, what do you think of the scout's opinion? Do you give it much clout?

I think it's one-man's opinion. He makes a lot of good points, and I agree with some of them, but at the same time, no one picked the Orioles to do anything but succumb to their 15th straight losing season at this time last year so I'm not too concerned. I'm on record as saying this team needs a true MOO and probably a number one pitcher to really be a top contender going into this season. The Orioles as currently built have a lot of hoping to do. They have to hope guys like Hammels, Markakis, Davis, Gonzalez, Tillman, and McLouth are their 2012 versions and not their previous year's versions. They have to hope the bullpen can repeat it's fantastic pitching despite the volatility of relief pitchers from year to year. They have to hope that team's like Tampa, New York, and Toronto have serious injury issues like they did last year. They have to hope that Wieters and Machado take that next step in their development and that Jones and Davis do not regress. They have to hope that Bundy and Gausman stay healthy and continue to develop.

That's a lot of hope.

It doesn't mean it won't happen, but it does mean I can see why some observers are picking the Orioles to fall back after a 93-win season.

[OsLuvrInKy]

It's amazing how people within MLB see with absolute clarity what the Orioles' situation is like, but a lot of fans on the OH that follow the team religiously keep saying that we're going to be okay when we won't. Roy gets it, Tony gets it, other sports writers get it, but for a lot of the OH mainstays, few seem to realize that we succeeded through a combination of luck, players over-performing and the Red Sox falling apart.

MSK

One really dumb question. Are these the same folks who predicted the Orioles to be one of the worst teams in baseball last year? Sorry MSK but DD proved enough last year that I am going to give him the benefit of several doubts. He has shown he will cut a player he picked up quickly, that he has his scouts scouring the far corners of the world for talent, will do an in season trade quickly, and is not afraid to call up talent from the minors quickly. We finally have a GM who seams to do quite well within the constraints that King Peter places on him.

[joeyc]

I love how the whole point of ever criticism is they can't do it again because they can't.

Why can't Miguel Gonzalez maintain? Seriously why not? The game is filled with late-bloomers and people out of nowhere. One, for example, just won the Cy Young last year. Why can't Hammel do what he did last year? Why can't Machado and Davis take their next steps?

Why can't Jim Johnson do what he did again?

It seems to me the only reason that these guys can't do it again is the name on the front of their jerseys.

Because you are being totally unrealistic to think we can win that many 1 run games and extra inning games again. It's unrealistic to think of players that have a history of being mediocre all of a sudden being great for the rest of there carreer. Let's face it, these guys did play way over their heads. I agree that we will finish in 4th place, but I do see the Rays coming in at least 2nd. I think the Jays are the team to beat, after all their moves, this winter.

[Grt 2BA FL Gator]

It is possible to be dissatisfied with what the Orioles have done this winter, and at the same time have good reason to believe that the Orioles will be competitive again in 2012.

Most of these points have been discussed to death. Everyone knows that even if the bullpen is above average again in 2013, we won't have nearly as good a record in one run games and extra inning games. I don't know a single poster on this board who expects that to happen again, or who expects the bullpen to be as good in 2013 as it was in 2012. We all know the bullpen will slip some.

But what you and those who agree with you seem to ignore is that the Orioles played great baseball in August and September, and that wasn't luck. It was a function of plugging a gaping hole in LF with a decent ballplayer, and plugging a huge defensive hole at 3B with a plus defender who also showed he could hit pretty well for a kid who just turned 20. The Orioles team that finished the year was a very good team despite not having Markakis for the final month and despite not having Reimold. The Orioles outscored their opponents by 43 runs after the all-star break (which includes 3+ weeks before McLouth and Machado got called up), and their pythagorean winning percentage over that span was .563, which translates to a 91-win season over 162 games. And that has nothing to do with winning one-run games and extra inning games.

This was a very good team at the end of the year, and it's a good team now. Would I like to see the Orioles make some moves to solidify their position? Yes, I would. But if this scout thinks the O's are going to slide back into oblivion if they don't make some dramatic move, well, I disagree.

This is pretty much everything I have been trying to say the past few days. Well done.

[NedFromYork]

So we need a bat capable of hitting 40 HRs!?! Based on what analysis!?! Sounds like a scout from the old world who is out of date.

"An offense consisting of nine Scott Hattebergs would have been the best offense in baseball in 2002." Scott Hatteberg hit .280 with 15 HRs.

[wildbillhiccup]

This assessment has some flaws, but the part about Baltimore not doing anything to improve their club is spot on. Whether you think they should have or haven't signed FAs, made trades, etc. it's hard to argue against this point. My personal opinion is that they're actually worse (as of right now) then they were last year, but I seem to put more stock Reynold's bat and defense than most, so take that with or without a grain of salt.

If they go into the season with their current roster, I'm predicting a fourth place finish. The're record last year in extra inning games is unstainable and I think the downgrade defensively at 1b (going from Reynolds to Davis) will cost them a few games too. And as the writer alluded to, their bullpen, while still good, is not likely to be "as good" as it was last season.

[Mayor McCheese]

I see Tampa in the bottom portion of the AL East. Pitching they will be solid, Offensively they will really struggle.

[Tony-OH]

This assessment has some flaws, but the part about Baltimore not doing anything to improve their club is spot on. Whether you think they should have or haven't signed FAs, made trades, etc. it's hard to argue against this point. My personal opinion is that they're actually worse (as of right now) then they were last year, but I seem to put more stock Reynold's bat and defense than most, so take that with or without a grain of salt.

If they go into the season with their current roster, I'm predicting a fourth place finish. The're record last year in extra inning games is unstainable and I think the downgrade defensively at 1b (going from Reynolds to Davis) will cost them a few games too. And as the writer alluded to, their bullpen, while still good, is not likely to be "as good" as it was last season.

Perhaps, or maybe they are the same. The only problem is that Boston and Toronto definitely got better and if any team in baseball can afford to trade away their top pitcher and still be competitive it's the Rays. I honestly think the Orioles are still a decent team and if I had a gun put to my head, I'd say they are an 85-win team right now. That's probably 4th place in this Division, maybe 3rd depending on how things shake out.