One scout's early take on the 2013 Orioles and the AL East

[Enjoy Terror]

It's going to be about the pitching, bottom line. The pitching is what killed this team for years.

I personally wouldn't mind the .300/.400/.500 bat in the middle of the lineup, but a full year of Reimold/Jones/Davis is 90 homeruns in the 3-4-5 spot. It think our team is more balanced 1-9 than a lot of other teams

[Tony-OH]

This is what has got me worried, we have to hope that most of these things come out good for us. A mediocre bullpen and we're in trouble. One or two of our starters we are counting on fail and we're in trouble. A couple of our 1-6 hitters have really bad years and we're in trouble. 3 of the teams besides us play around or over .500 ball and we're in trouble. We really need a lot to go good for us. Now in my opinion we are a good club and I do expect us to still be a pain to play against as I feel our pitching and defense will be really good this year and that should keep us in a lot of games. I just wish there was a trade that we could make that would not mortgage our future but it sounds like everyone wants players we are going to be needing in the years to come. There is still a lot of time for things to sort themselves out and I love the moves DD did last year so lets hope he can perform his magic for us again because I could really get used to watching our Orioles in the playoffs every year.

Actually, I think we have some nice depth in the starting rotation, especially if the Orioles re-sign Saunders. If Saunders resigns, I see the opening day rotation barring injury as Hammel, Gonzalez, Chen, Tillman, Saunders. That leaves Britton, Steve Johnson, Zach Clark and maybe even Matusz (I like him in the pen) as depth for the rotation. Then you have Bundy and Gausman knocking on the door, possibly as early as mid-year. I'm not sure many team have that much solid depth among rotation options.

I'm more concerned over our offense needing a lot of guys to repeat performances and take the next step without that one hitter that scares the opposition. I admit, I'm concerned over Davis' K-BB ratio and his streakiness. I'm concerned that Wieters will have to bat too high in the lineup. I'm concerned that Buck will put Markakis back at the number 3 hole and he'll try to start hitting for power again.

[Tony-OH]

It's going to be about the pitching, bottom line. The pitching is what killed this team for years.

I personally wouldn't mind the .300/.400/.500 bat in the middle of the lineup, but a full year of Reimold/Jones/Davis is 90 homeruns in the 3-4-5 spot. It think our team is more balanced 1-9 than a lot of other teams

If we get that production from those guys then I agree we don't need a MOO. I just don't think you are going to see that kind of production in 2013 from those three.

[Brendan25]

If we get that production from those guys then I agree we don't need a MOO. I just don't think you are going to see that kind of production in 2013 from those three.

I think Davis has a huge year.

[El Gordo]

We don't need a MOO bat nearly as much as we need more guys getting on base. The second half we upped our team OPS from .702 to .755, yet we only scored 12 more runs.

[Tony-OH]

I think Davis has a huge year.

He might, but his K-BB ratio suggests he also could come crashing back down to earth. He's not a given. If he does crash or stays in prolonged slumps, this lineup is in big trouble. Try and make a good lineup if Davis gets hurt or struggles for long periods of time like he did last year. If every hitter has a great year our offense should be sufficient as long as our pitching is solid, but by no means is Davis a given for production, and Reimold certainly is not. I just think this lineup needs one more given MOO hitter. A guy you know is good for 30+ homers, a .340+ OBP and a .875+ OPS. Davis to me is a number five hitter, Wieters is a #6 hitter at best, especially while batting left-handed.

[Brendan25]

He might, but his K-BB ratio suggests he also could come crashing back down to earth. He's not a given. If he does crash or stays in prolonged slumps, this lineup is in big trouble. Try and make a good lineup if Davis gets hurt or struggles for long periods of time like he did last year. If every hitter has a great year our offense should be sufficient as long as our pitching is solid, but by no means is Davis a given for production, and Reimold certainly is not. I just think this lineup needs one more given MOO hitter. A guy you know is good for 30+ homers, a .340+ OBP and a .875+ OPS. Davis to me is a number five hitter, Wieters is a #6 hitter at best, especially while batting left-handed.

If Davis struggles, then Wieters would need to have a huge season. I agree.

[Frobby]

Perhaps, or maybe they are the same. The only problem is that Boston and Toronto definitely got better and if any team in baseball can afford to trade away their top pitcher and still be competitive it's the Rays. I honestly think the Orioles are still a decent team and if I had a gun put to my head, I'd say they are an 85-win team right now. That's probably 4th place in this Division, maybe 3rd depending on how things shake out.

85 wins is about where I see them, too. One thing -- the Rays did not trade their best pitcher. That would be David Price.

[Frobby]

It's going to be about the pitching, bottom line. The pitching is what killed this team for years.

I personally wouldn't mind the .300/.400/.500 bat in the middle of the lineup, but a full year of Reimold/Jones/Davis is 90 homeruns in the 3-4-5 spot. It think our team is more balanced 1-9 than a lot of other teams

I agree it will mostly be about the pitching. If what we saw from Hammel, Chen, Tillman and Gonzalez last year was real, the Orioles will be pretty good.

I also thought the Orioles had a more balanced lineup than some teams, but last year they were sub-.700 at SS and LF and sub-.600 at 2B. So, if there is not going to be a top-end bat added, we need to better at those three spots to improve.

[Enjoy Terror]

This is what has got me worried, we have to hope that most of these things come out good for us. A mediocre bullpen and we're in trouble. One or two of our starters we are counting on fail and we're in trouble. A couple of our 1-6 hitters have really bad years and we're in trouble.

It's guaranteed that the failures are going to happen. In that respect, we're not in terrible trouble; planning for the failure is where I think DD is better than a lot of other GMs.

Certainly no replacement player is going to be a perfect substitute for a starter, but keep in mind we had terrible misfortune last year; we lost Arrieta, Matusz and Britton from the rotation, but DD added Chen, Gonzalez, and Hammel, and Tillman and Johnson had good years to warrant coming up. He also added Saunders who had a nice story as well. We also lost Reimold to the lineup, but DD came through by signing McLouth to AAA. Quintanilla was an adept move, for what brief role he played. Steve Pearce was a good platoon guy. DD planned well for depth last year and it turned out in a big way for us.

Consider that even if our rotation fails us and Chen, Hammel, Gonzalez, Tillman and Johnson all go south... Arrieta, Matusz, Britton, and Hunter are there, plus Zach Clark, Patton, and eventually Bundy and Gausman. The rotation has a ton of backup plans. There's going to be a lot of guys for the bullpen we're going to see too; I predict we'll see a lot of Dan McCutchen next year and probably Mike Wright.

There's no reason to think our hitters are going to have bad years; none of them are old enough or have numbers to indicate that a decrease in production is coming. If anything Hardy should return to his averages, Markakis and Reimold should be healthy, and Machado should definitely improve. I'd be concerned about Brian Roberts, but there are four other second basemen to help him if he's a liability.

I think that so far this is a well planned ball club with the potential for long term growth and not a turn for the worse.

[weams]

85 wins is about where I see them, too. One thing -- the Rays did not trade their best pitcher. That would be David Price.

Yes, but they will.

[Enjoy Terror]

I agree it will mostly be about the pitching. If what we saw from Hammel, Chen, Tillman and Gonzalez last year was real, the Orioles will be pretty good.

I also thought the Orioles had a more balanced lineup than some teams, but last year they were sub-.700 at SS and LF and sub-.600 at 2B. So, if there is not going to be a top-end bat added, we need to better at those three spots to improve.

2B, I agree, it's a hole. Hardy should rebound; there's nothing to indicate he shouldn't.

[VeveJones007]

Having the Red Sox 3rd or above makes me not elieve anything he says.

This. And him believing in lineup protection.

[Abadie]

I'm going out on a limb here, but I really think that Buck/Dan are going to place a heavy emphasis on base stealing.

*Casilla

*T. Robinson

*Return of Brob

*Resigning of McClouth

*Return of Nolan

All of the above 5 guys are base stealers. With that being said, I get the feeling that they don't feel that MOO bat is needed to compete in the AL East and make the playoffs. I know a lot has to due w/those guys staying healthy, but don't be surprised if we make a SIGNIFICANT jump in SB's this season.

[Can_of_corn]

2B, I agree, it's a hole. Hardy should rebound; there's nothing to indicate he shouldn't.

Except that middle infielders tend to decline at an earlier age.

For the record I do expect Hardy to rebound, just not very much.