More Smoak and Mirrors on Free Agency

[Tx Oriole]

True, but you're also getting a pretty good (though not elite) prospect back in the deal, and Matusz's profile isn't all that different from Smoak's at this point.

Maybe but I don't feel good about trading Matusz for Smoak.

[LookinUp]

I wouldnt trade Steve Johnson for him. I think the kid really showed us something last year and it isnt about 'stuff" or velocity. Ask around, alot of people

were very impressed with what he and Gonzo did on a consistent basis.And Johnson kept getting skipped and moved around and STILL pitched well when

called upon. Im a Steve Johnson fan. I think he's a good option for the Orioles and would hate to throw him away.

I'm not sure whether I agree or disagree with this. There's a school of thought that you want to go with guys who "know how to pitch." There's another school of thought that you go with high upside guys. There was a time when Brad Bergesen had real value. Is Steve Johnson the next Bergesen, or does he have the stuff to have staying power?

I have no idea, which is one reason they don't pay me to do DD's job.

[El Gordo]

I'm not sure whether I agree or disagree with this. There's a school of thought that you want to go with guys who "know how to pitch." There's another school of thought that you go with high upside guys. There was a time when Brad Bergesen had real value. Is Steve Johnson the next Bergesen, or does he have the stuff to have staying power?

I have no idea, which is one reason they don't pay me to do DD's job.

Bergesen isn't a good comparison with SJ. Begergesen got by with a sinker then he lost it. Johnson gets by with pitchability and command.

[Bohs&O's]

Bergesen isn't a good comparison with SJ. Begergesen got by with a sinker then he lost it. Johnson gets by with pitchability and command.

A guy like Kris Medlen from the ATL might compare to him better. Expecting him to ever be that good might be a pipe dream though.lol

[NCRaven]

I don't think Smoak qualifies as the kind of bat Duquette wants to add. He'd be a nice add for depth or for AAA, but I see no way we'd give up an Arrieta for this guy. Not with the way Duquette is valuing the likes of Arrieta/Britton/Matusz.

I don't think this is about the quest for a "MOO bat" for this year's lineup. It's about adding a high-ceiling prospect to our system using our excess pitching (if there is really such a thing!). Also, I don't think that this trade would end Duquette's efforts to bolster the major league roster. It's like the minor league signings that some people lambaste with "get your WS tickets" comments (not that I think you're doing that here). It's possible to do both.

[Dark Helmet]

I don't think this is about the quest for a "MOO bat" for this year's lineup. It's about adding a high-ceiling prospect to our system using our excess pitching (if there is really such a thing!). Also, I don't think that this trade would end Duquette's efforts to bolster the major league roster. It's like the minor league signings that some people lambaste with "get your WS tickets" comments (not that I think you're doing that here). It's possible to do both.

The problem is, Smoak isn't a high-ceiling prospect anymore. He's a reclamation project that may never figure it out. Same as Matusz and Arrieta. But imo, SP is still more valuable. I wouldn't give up much to get Smoak.

[Tony-OH]

Arrieta for Smoak is a good trade for both teams. Both guys have a good upside but both have been pretty big disappointments at the major league level. The problem is that Smoak had a nice Sept/Oct and the Mariners may value him higher because of the hot finish. I would not move Matusz for him.

[McNulty]

Haha, I forgot about that. Whatever the name was (I forget) he would put the initials (i.e. MSK) at the end of every post, and then try to pretend it wasn't him. I think he was trying to avoid LuckyJim because he kept welching on their bet.

Bilbo Baggins.

[Barnaby Graves]

Reynolds, or Reynolds-lite, doesn't seem like a terrible comp for Smoak at this point. The walks are actually there. He's also a victim of Safeco as his away stats are decidedly more impressive. 4 home runs at home and 15 away, same number of games, a few more away plate appearances. Nice guy to take a flyer on but he's much more of a gamble than Davis, neither plays a great 1st from what I've seen, so they both occupy the same kind of space as quasi-DHs.

[LookinUp]

The problem is, Smoak isn't a high-ceiling prospect anymore. He's a reclamation project that may never figure it out. Same as Matusz and Arrieta. But imo, SP is still more valuable. I wouldn't give up much to get Smoak.

Who knows? He had an OPS over 1.000 over the last 26 games. He played a ton in Safeco. Here's a guy who played in Safeco and left.

5 years with Seattle: OPS was .716, .792, .802, .784, .683

Next 3 years: OPS was .919, .892, .921

[Scrat1]

The problem is, Smoak isn't a high-ceiling prospect anymore. He's a reclamation project that may never figure it out. Same as Matusz and Arrieta. But imo, SP is still more valuable. I wouldn't give up much to get Smoak.

This doesn't really make sense. He may not be a prospect anymore, but his ceiling hasn't really changed much. With his muddled major league career thus far, he's less likely to reach that ceiling, but the ceiling is still very high.

[weams]

I wouldnt trade Steve Johnson for him. I think the kid really showed us something last year and it isnt about 'stuff" or velocity. Ask around, alot of people

were very impressed with what he and Gonzo did on a consistent basis.And Johnson kept getting skipped and moved around and STILL pitched well when

called upon. Im a Steve Johnson fan. I think he's a good option for the Orioles and would hate to throw him away.

I'm a Steve Johnson fan as well. There is something that he does that gets a swing and miss. Koji like.

[Barnaby Graves]

I'm a Steve Johnson fan as well. There is something that he does that gets a swing and miss. Koji like.

Koji's results come from a very, very late release point. Not sure about Johnson but it's certainly a possibility.

[PaulFolk]

I'm surprised that some people wouldn't trade Steve Johnson for Smoak. I understand the skepticism about Smoak, and I wouldn't give up a ton for him, but the opportunity to take a chance on a guy who is young and still has potential to be a legitimate slugger is certainly worth giving up a third-tier pitching prospect for.

Steve Johnson looked good for the O's in 2012, but it was 12 games. Only 4 starts. Talk about small sample size. His minor-league track record does not suggest that he's bound for long-term major-league success, at least not as a starter. I'm not buying the idea that he has a supernatural ability to fool hitters at the big-league level-- if that were the case, why didn't he have such success against inferior hitters in the minors?

[Scrat1]

I'm surprised that some people wouldn't trade Steve Johnson for Smoak. I understand the skepticism about Smoak, and I wouldn't give up a ton for him, but the opportunity to take a chance on a guy who is young and still has potential to be a legitimate slugger is certainly worth giving up a third-tier pitching prospect for.

Steve Johnson looked good for the O's in 2012, but it was 12 games. Only 4 starts. Talk about small sample size. His minor-league track record does not suggest that he's bound for long-term major-league success, at least not as a starter. I'm not buying the idea that he has a supernatural ability to fool hitters at the big-league level-- if that were the case, why didn't he have such success against inferior hitters in the minors?

Yeah, as I said earlier in the thread, Johnson for Smoak would be a coup for the Orioles. Moot point, though, because the Mariners would never make that trade.