Trade Jim Johnson!

[Tryptamine]

Its a big gamble. He has gotten worse every year. I would not trade Strop for him. The Tigers have the offense to cover for him with his high ERA hits and WHIP. The O's don't.

He has not gotten worse every year. Stop looking at ERA/WHIP. His defense is absolutely horrible which means he gives up more hits and in turn more runs. That is why we have FIP/xFIP to adjust for things like defense. Put Porcello in front of a defense that doesn't completely suck and his babip drops substantially which leads to a much lower ERA and WHIP. His peripherals have actually gotten better every single year, not worse.

[DrinkinWithFermi]

I was furious when we didn't trade BJ Ryan at the deadline some years back.

That said, this is different. We have a very good chance to contend next year, and the bullpen will be a major factor in determining our fate. I'm not even sure I would trade Patton for Morse- that's how crucial I believe it will be. Jim has value, no doubt about it. But I worry that removing him from the formula could cause the entire chemical compound to break down.

It's a tough call, for sure.

[SrMeowMeow]

I was furious when we didn't trade BJ Ryan at the deadline some years back.

That said, this is different. We have a very good chance to contend next year, and the bullpen will be a major factor in determining our fate. I'm not even sure I would trade Patton for Morse- that's how crucial I believe it will be. Jim has value, no doubt about it. But I worry that removing him from the formula could cause the entire chemical compound to break down.

It's a tough call, for sure.

I don't want Morse, so I agree. But I think our bullpen is a) a 100% guarantee to regress towards the mean and their FIPs, and b) one of the few actual areas in which we can deal from a surplus. This is a good time to be smart and take some good risks.

[tilgaham]

Its a big gamble. He has gotten worse every year. I would not trade Strop for him. The Tigers have the offense to cover for him with his high ERA hits and WHIP. The O's don't.

Porcello's WHIP and ERA paint a picture who is getting worse. The advanced metrics paint a pitcher who is gaining velocity, and who's defense has gone from decent in 2009 to HORRENDOUS in 2012.

Porcello would look GREAT in Orange and Black, although I'd rather give up Strop than Jim Johnson.

[oriolefan1035]

I haven't seen too many people address what I consider to be the main point of my post...that JJ is one of the strongest sell-high candidates that we have. I didn't throw his name out randomly.

That is opposed to Strop, who I consider sell-medium or so, and Tillman, whose stock I think is considerably lower. I am strongly opposed to trading Tillman when other teams don't see the potential that we saw this past half-season.

The reality is that nobody is going to give an overwhelming trade offer for a reliever with one year left on his contract. In that essence, he's really not 'sell high'. To quote one of my favorite movies, "WE'RE CONTENDERS NOW". I fully expect that he's worth more to us making a playoff run this year than anything we could realistically expect from him in trade. Like I said, if we find ourselves out of it around the ASB, then by all means, look to deal him then. But not now.

[The Maestro]

If Detroit came calling for Jim Johnson, Castellanos has to be the starting point for me. No way in hell I'm dealing him for Porcello alone.

[theobird]

If Detroit came calling for Jim Johnson, Castellanos has to be the starting point for me. No way in hell I'm dealing him for Porcello alone.

I agree with this. But I do think there is serious opportunity to really rake in a deal with Detroit. They are a team on the verge of world championship, and the only two weaknesses they have are defensive ss and closer. We have Manny Machado playing out of position due to the presense of JJ Hardy at SS. Hardy is a great guy, a great defensive ss. Jim Johnson saved 50+ games last year. Those two guys would put them over the top imo, and I can imagine them unloading the best of the farm plus Porcello to get them. I am big time in favor of dealing both of them for the right return. Gotta strike while the Irons hot.

[Orange_Crush]

Trade him! His stock is higher than it might ever be We all know relievers are ficl;r and 95% of them are up and down. They for the most part are interchangable.

[Frobby]

The reality is that nobody is going to give an overwhelming trade offer for a reliever with one year left on his contract. In that essence, he's really not 'sell high'. To quote one of my favorite movies, "WE'RE CONTENDERS NOW". I fully expect that he's worth more to us making a playoff run this year than anything we could realistically expect from him in trade. Like I said, if we find ourselves out of it around the ASB, then by all means, look to deal him then. But not now.

Johnson has two years left before he's a free agent. Koji got us Davis and Hunter with 1.3 seasons remaining, despite being older and less durable. I'm not advocating trading Johnson unless we get a lot in return, but I'd be open to seeing what's out there.

[all Maryland]

I'd trade him. Your never going to get the same performance from year to year with pitchers in the bullpen .

[wildcard]

Porcello's WHIP and ERA paint a picture who is getting worse. The advanced metrics paint a pitcher who is gaining velocity, and who's defense has gone from decent in 2009 to HORRENDOUS in 2012.

Porcello would look GREAT in Orange and Black, although I'd rather give up Strop than Jim Johnson.

Your argument about the poor Tigers defense affecting Porcello is very weak. He pitches with the same defense as:

Verlander, 2.64 ERA, 1.06 WHIP

Scherzer, 3.74 ERA, 1.27 WHIP

Fister, 3.45 ERA, 1.19 WHIP

Smyly, 3.99 ERA, 1.27 WHIP

Sanchez, 3.74 ERA, 1.29 WHIP

and then they is:

Porcello, 4.59 ERA, 1.53 WHIP

[Bulgaria]

If Detroit came calling for Jim Johnson, Castellanos has to be the starting point for me. No way in hell I'm dealing him for Porcello alone.

Not even a slim chance.

[Brooks The Great]

Your argument about the poor Tigers defense affecting Porcello is very weak. He pitches with the same defense as:

Verlander, 2.64 ERA, 1.06 WHIP

Scherzer, 3.74 ERA, 1.27 WHIP

Fister, 3.45 ERA, 1.19 WHIP

Smyly, 3.99 ERA, 1.27 WHIP

Sanchez, 3.74 ERA, 1.29 WHIP

and then they is:

Porcello, 4.59 ERA, 1.53 WHIP

Yeah, but Verlander and Scherzer are high strikeout pitchers, whereas Porcello is a pitch-to-contact guy. A bad defense hurts him worse than any of those other pitchers. And it would be safe to say that Scherzer, Fister, and Smyly's WHIP and ERA would be even better with a good defense behind them.

I really dislike Porcello. But I agree with those that say he would be significantly better with a good defense. I just wouldn't want to give up anything of value for him. The Tigers are aggressive, close to a World Series contender, and spending is no big thing to them. I wouldn't mind getting Porcello on the cheap. I would want Porcello, Castellanos, and another solid prospect for Johnson. Or maybe Patton for Porcello. And I think the Tigers would be willing to do something like that since they were burned so badly by Valverde last season and they (over)value veterans with experience.

[Pruke]

He's a team leader & tone setter for this team. Brings more value than saves. Good relationship with Weiters. Not sure I'm game for moving unless we were completely overwhelmed. Not sure I'm game, even then.

[The Rick]

Yeah, but Verlander and Scherzer are high strikeout pitchers, whereas Porcello is a pitch-to-contact guy. A bad defense hurts him worse than any of those other pitchers. And it would be safe to say that Scherzer, Fister, and Smyly's WHIP and ERA would be even better with a good defense behind them.

I really dislike Porcello. But I agree with those that say he would be significantly better with a good defense. I just wouldn't want to give up anything of value for him. The Tigers are aggressive, close to a World Series contender, and spending is no big thing to them. I wouldn't mind getting Porcello on the cheap. I would want Porcello, Castellanos, and another solid prospect for Johnson. Or maybe Patton for Porcello. And I think the Tigers would be willing to do something like that since they were burned so badly by Valverde last season and they (over)value veterans with experience.

Why do you dislike Porcello, and don't want to give up anything for him, if you yourself say he would be significantly better with a good defense. Significantly better looks somethign like a 3.75-4.00 ERA as a 24-YO next season with 3 years of service time remaining. You don't have any interest in a young #3 starter, with possibly even more upside? Why?

BTW, I agree with your first part of your post. It's pretty poor to point to better starters ERA's and WHIP's and act like the Tigers defense is good or something.