Withholding Judgment

[LookitsPuck]

Rep to you, OP. The Orioles are taking the TBR's approach. Develop young players, exploit the market where possible (in this case, finding low risk, high reward international guys) and platooning where necessary. The difference between the O's and the Rays is that the O's can have a $80-$100 payroll, so they can retain more of their core guys.

[24fps]

I think I agree with your points here. I'll be clear that I'm not suggesting a lack of discussion or debate. Certainly a lot of the value of the Hangout would be lost if everyone just said "Well, I'll wait to see how the season goes to decide what were the good decisions and what were the bad ones."

My main point was just to counter those who are acting as if we can already assign a thumbs-up or thumbs-down for the 2013 roster despite the fact that many of last year's biggest moves hadn't even been thought of or rumored at this point in the winter.

The post from Tx Oriole that I responded to is representative of a mindset that is starting to pop up all over the board. "In DD We Trust". In most of my posts about the offseason so far I've include the disclaimer that I give him the benefit of the doubt. I do which in my book is much different than unquestioning acceptance. Nothing in your OP indicates you're advocating the latter so maybe I'm experiencing a displaced reaction to a perfectly good thread elsewhere about the Orioles' increasingly hard to ignore inaction, a thread that has devolved into troll-bashing.

If the O's had won 83 games last year instead of 93 the debate about DD's current inactivity would be cast in a much different light. Like it or not, the Orioles competitive window has opened and a lot of us are looking for something we can point to that shows we're not alone in recognizing that. If the Orioles come crashing back to Earth in 2013 after an off season of minor fiddles, I wouldn't want to be the one who had the job of explaining the virtues of continued patience.

Edit: Well it looks like the troll-bashing was warranted after all.

[tntoriole]

I agree with this post completely. DD is a professional and I believe he has hired excellent people thus far to the organization. I believe he also communicates well within his organizational staff and appears to communicate regularly with Buck and they both have earned my trust. I believe DD is continuing to work on improvements all the time.

[scOtt]

Davis doesn't count as an upgrade. He was here last year.

But Davis at first (and letting Reynolds go) was a calculated move. And an upgrade IMO.

[scOtt]

Agree with withholding judgement though I am skeptical that there is a Chen or MGon type of free agent out there for us. Absent a bold trade, I think we are more likely to see our FO take on a rebound project (Mourneau, Smoak) or two.

That's something that worries me a little. It was great scouting but also some luck too. How many more times can DD pull a rabbit out of his hat?

[Frobby]

But Davis at first (and letting Reynolds go) was a calculated move. And an upgrade IMO.

Why? Reynolds appears to be the better defensive 1B, so it's a downgrade to the defense. Therefore, it can only be an upgrade if Reynolds' at bats are going to go to someone who is a better hitter than he is, and the difference needs to be more than marginal in light of the fact that the defense is taking something of a hit. And, there is a depth issue, too.

[wildcard]

But Davis at first (and letting Reynolds go) was a calculated move. And an upgrade IMO.

It may be calculated but to make it work DD has to sign a replacement at DH/OF/1B because Davis is busy manning first and can't do that job any more. With Betemit moving to LH DH the bench took a hit so when someone is hurt there is no Betemit to come off the bench and fill the void.

Even DD says he needs a MOO hitter.

[Orange_Crush]

This is where I come out, as well. So far, I think this has been a medicore offseason. But (1) it's not over yet, and (2) Duquette has earned the right to be judged in 2013 on end results, not mere impressions of whether his moves were good or not. A lot of his moves last winter worked out surprisingly well.

While you have a point there the problem is hoping that all of those same guys(who mostly have no true track record)repeat their 2012's. That seems a little dangerous.

[Orange_Crush]

But Davis at first (and letting Reynolds go) was a calculated move. And an upgrade IMO.

Calculated in the sense that...the word cheap comes to mind. Its not like the guy was going to get $100 million or anything.

[Frobby]

While you have a point there the problem is hoping that all of those same guys(who mostly have no true track record)repeat their 2012's. That seems a little dangerous.

I can't say that the players overperformed last year, when I look at them individually. It's the team as a whole that arguably overperformed.

Reynolds - disappointing

Andino - disappointing

Hardy - disappointing

Wieters - slightly disappointing

Reimold - injured

Jones - outperformed expectations

Markakis - slightly outperformed expectations when healthy, but was injured for two months

Davis - outperformed expectations

Betemit - met expectations, but injured for two months

Starters -- Hammel, Gonzalez and Tillman exceeded expectations, Matusz, Britton, Hunter and Arrieta disappointed. Chen was where I expected him to be.

Bullpen -- I will grant you, this worked out almost perfectly. It won't go as well in 2013.

[russ snyder]

Calculated in the sense that...the word cheap comes to mind. Its not like the guy was going to get $100 million or anything.

While the calculation included money, I think that the decision went beyond a few bucks. Davis and Reynolds are similar offensively, and the team clearly did not want to go into the season with two power hitters who go through dry spells for a week or so at a time. Davis is obviously younger and cheaper. Further, I believe that he has more upside offensively than Reynolds. The calculated move was choosing Davis over Reynolds.

[Tx Oriole]

The post from Tx Oriole that I responded to is representative of a mindset that is starting to pop up all over the board. "In DD We Trust". In most of my posts about the offseason so far I've include the disclaimer that I give him the benefit of the doubt. I do which in my book is much different than unquestioning acceptance. Nothing in your OP indicates you're advocating the latter so maybe I'm experiencing a displaced reaction to a perfectly good thread elsewhere about the Orioles' increasingly hard to ignore inaction, a thread that has devolved into troll-bashing.

If the O's had won 83 games last year instead of 93 the debate about DD's current inactivity would be cast in a much different light. Like it or not, the Orioles competitive window has opened and a lot of us are looking for something we can point to that shows we're not alone in recognizing that. If the Orioles come crashing back to Earth in 2013 after an off season of minor fiddles, I wouldn't want to be the one who had the job of explaining the virtues of continued patience.

Edit: Well it looks like the troll-bashing was warranted after all.

I could piss and moan my head off about DD not making moves that I consider

the best for the team. But good would it do me? Piss me off because he

didn't get Hamilton or trade Bundy and more for Stanton? We all have

ideas of how DD could Improve the team. The final act is on DD. There is

still time for him to make moves to help the team. If he fails well then there

will be another year. At my age I try not to concern myself with things I can't

change. Life is too short.

[Frobby]

While the calculation included money, I think that the decision went beyond a few bucks. Davis and Reynolds are similar offensively, and the team clearly did not want to go into the season with two power hitters who go through dry spells for a week or so at a time. Davis is obviously younger and cheaper. Further, I believe that he has more upside offensively than Reynolds. The calculated move was choosing Davis over Reynolds.

Sure, it is a calculated move. For me, though, the calculation has to include making the 1B/DH combination better overall. I'm still a bit dubious that it's going to happen that way. Defensively, I doubt Davis will be as good as Reynolds was. So that means the offense from whoever mans DH (asssuming that Davis is at 1B) has to be significantly better than what Reynolds could provide. Right now, I only see that if Reimold is healthy and plays a lot of DH. Betemit's a good option vs. RHP but I don't like our other options vs. LHP very much.

[Oriolidae85]

Why? Reynolds appears to be the better defensive 1B, so it's a downgrade to the defense. Therefore, it can only be an upgrade if Reynolds' at bats are going to go to someone who is a better hitter than he is, and the difference needs to be more than marginal in light of the fact that the defense is taking something of a hit. And, there is a depth issue, too.

Nolan Reimold will blow Reynold's bat out of the water this year, IMO.

[fearthenoodle]

Sure, it is a calculated move. For me, though, the calculation has to include making the 1B/DH combination better overall. I'm still a bit dubious that it's going to happen that way. Defensively, I doubt Davis will be as good as Reynolds was. So that means the offense from whoever mans DH (asssuming that Davis is at 1B) has to be significantly better than what Reynolds could provide. Right now, I only see that if Reimold is healthy and plays a lot of DH. Betemit's a good option vs. RHP but I don't like our other options vs. LHP very much.

Reynolds' defense simply wasn't as good as people made it out to be. He had very little range, and he made other plays look more difficult than they really were, which is why to the naked eye they appeared to be much more impressive.