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"The impact of qualifying offers on the FA class"


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Tacking on this fascinating piece of analysis by Dave Cameron from Fangraphs.

Not about Boras, but about the qualifying offers.


That speculation gains some steam when we look at the prices for players who did not receive a qualifying offer, but were eligible to receive such an offer. Among those who didn’t receive an offer for 1/13:

Edwin Jackson: 4 years, $52 million

Angel Pagan: 4 years, $40 million

Mike Napoli: 3 years, $39 million

Torii Hunter: 2 years, $26 million

Three of the four signed deals for the exact same $13 million AAV that was established by the qualifying offer, but got that price on a multi-year deal rather than on a one year commitment. Pagan is the only one who fell short of an $13 million AAV, but given that he got four years at $10 million apiece, he’s obviously doing better than if he would have accepted 1/13. Toss in Cody Ross getting 3/26, and there are five free agents who weren’t offered, but then found a much better deal on the market.

A twitter update from Cameron:

David Cameron ‏

It will be interesting to see if guys headed towards free agency start negotiating anti-qualifying offer language into their deals.

David Cameron ‏

And now I see that the new CBA explicitly prohibits those kinds of agreements. Well, crap.
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