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Orioles drop demand for Jay Bruce


ChaosLex

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He certainly should be ok with Bedard taking the ball on opening day' date=' that decision wouldn't neccessarily be without merit. But I am of the opinion that this statement he made was clearly posturing. Clearly the time to trade the guy is before opening day.[/quote']

Posturing is kind of a loaded word, but I agree with you. I think what happened is that the Reds said no dice on Bruce and the O's said we aren't bending over on Bedard and not much more was communicated. Still plenty to talk about IMO.

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Posturing is kind of a loaded word, but I agree with you. I think what happened is that the Reds said no dice on Bruce and the O's said we aren't bending over on Bedard and not much more was communicated. Still plenty to talk about IMO.

Absolutely, there certainly is more to discuss. And I feel Krivsky and Bavasi also have done a bit of posturing. Which tells me one thing, Bedard is still likely to be dealt to one of those 2 teams. Probably the Reds as we same to want him the most. Which means after Christmas (if we don't hear something sooner, which we might) I am expecting talks to resume.

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What if Votto is only a DH?

What if he is not good enough defensively to play 1B on a regular basis? His Fielding percentage at AA and AAA over the last two years is a consistent .988-.989. That would place last or very close to last in all the MLB defensively.

Votto's stats:

http://minors.baseball-reference.com/players.cgi?pid=15203

1B League fielding stats:

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/stats/fielding?groupId=9

Do you take Votto as the major offensive piece in a trade for your Ace pitcher if he really is only capable of being a DH?

To put that is perspective, you watched Audrey Huff play 1B last year. He is probably totally unacceptable as a regular 1B of a contending team. In 51 games, Huff's fielding percentage was .993. Votto was several degrees worst then that.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/h/huffau01.shtml

Fielding %...Votto having a fielding % that was .004% worse than Huff's is classified as several degress worse? Over a full season, this is like 5 or 6 plays maybe. Fielding % is virtually meaningless unless you are talking about a huge amount of errors.

The real factor you need to look at is his range (and not his range factor, another meaningless stat). Reports say he is an average first baseman, limited athletically, but solid enough. Could also play LF.

Now, I would not take that Reds deal. They have to add one more player. I would add something back. Personally, I would take Stubbs out and add Maloney, Dorn, and another arm from the lower levels of their MiL system. I'll throw in a reliever and a fringy prospect if they want.

But in any case, for the deal in the poll, in addition to Votto, you are getting a top-flight pitching prospect in Cueto addition to Stubbs. So its not that bad of a deal.

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First, just because this reporter is saying it, doesn't make it true. So much BS gets spewed this time of year, it's hard to know what's legit and what's not.

Second, I hope it is BS. IMO, Bedard is a bonafide #1, and trading for a guy like that requires parting with top prospects. If the Reds want him, that means giving up Bruce, IMO.

Then the Reds don't want Bedard I guess. There is no reason for the Reds to be desperate right now and trading Bruce would not only be incredibly stupid, it would be a desperate act. Jay Bruce won't be traded under any circumstances. That is known throughout baseball. If Mac calls and only wants to talk about Bruce than I guarantee the phone call doesn't last long.

The Reds aren't going to trade arguably the best hitting prospect in ten years for a 2 year rental that probably wouldn't even extend with the organization. Bedard has proven he can dominate at the major league level and Bruce has not, that said Bedard still has major risks like any other pitcher in this game. Jay Bruce is a sure thing and with Hamilton traded is not even going to be discussed. The Reds are stacked with major league ready talent. I can't imagine the Orioles turning down a Bailey, Votto, Stubbs, Maloney package. I wouldn't count on that either though. Wayne loves Maloney and I think he is counting on a rotation of Harang, Vosquez, Cueto, Bailey, and Maloney. One thing about Wayne Krivsky is that he scouts talent better than almost any other GM in baseball. He's not perfect, but he's damn close in that regard.

Nice board by the way, great posters and intelligent discussion. Some of you should stop by Redszone.com sometime. You will get the same type of discussion I guarantee.

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Fielding %...Votto having a fielding % that was .004% worse than Huff's is classified as several degress worse? Over a full season, this is like 5 or 6 plays maybe. Fielding % is virtually meaningless unless you are talking about a huge amount of errors.

The real factor you need to look at is his range (and not his range factor, another meaningless stat). Reports say he is an average first baseman, limited athletically, but solid enough. Could also play LF.

Now, I would not take that Reds deal. They have to add one more player. I would add something back. Personally, I would take Stubbs out and add Maloney, Dorn, and another arm from the lower levels of their MiL system. I'll throw in a reliever and a fringy prospect if they want.

But in any case, for the deal in the poll, in addition to Votto, you are getting a top-flight pitching prospect in Cueto addition to Stubbs. So its not that bad of a deal.

I think the point to look at is not the fieldings stats as an absolute, but rather as an indicator.

If in fact Votto is marginal defensively, does he solve the 1B problem for the O's? Does he move them closer to being a contending team by filling the 1B hole for the next 6 years? Or is he a guy that will not be a good defensive 1B on a contender and therefore ends up at DH?

If he is really a DH, does he belong in a trade for the O's ace? This is the O's only shot to get value for Bedard, should a DH be a center piece of a major trade?

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The Reds are NOT going to give up BOTH Bailey and Cueto. Just because they made that trade yesterday does not mean they are going to give up even more pitching for a guy they could possibly only have for two years. Bailey/Cueto, Votto, and two other prospects is probably going to be the proposed deal and if the prospects are Stubbs and Maloney, that sounds very fair to me. EE has been the regular 3B for pretty much two seasons now so I don't think he's going anywhere, especially after the progress he made defensively this past season. He's also one of their only righties right now on a team filled with lefties so that makes him extra valuable in the lineup.

I'm tired of hearing how many top five prospects from the Reds we won't get for EB.

These proposed deals involve only Votto from the 25 man. We won't have access to their top prospect and now people are deciding how few of the next three prospects we'll get. I understand how good Bruce is and AM moving off that demand, but the Reds need to come a little stronger to the basket or just go with the team they have - which is fine.

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I will post a few things that I am reading about Votto:

ESPN.com, Will Harris, Sept 9, 2007

Votto's defense is suspect.

MLB.com, Lisa Winston

His defense is average at best.

Cincinnati.com, C. Trent Rosecrans

The hardest work for Votto still lies on the part of the game without the bat. He played just about every position on the field as a high school player in Canada. After being drafted in the second round of the 2002 draft, he played outfield and third base in his first season before being moved to first in 2003.

Since then he's improved his defense, although he still has a ways to go.

"I was a wreck at the very beginning. I've come a long, long way and I'm going to keep going with that," Votto said. "I was never a very good defensive player and now I've started to pull my weight and we'll go from there."

He's had some good plays and some bad plays defensively this spring. On Thursday he misplayed a popup that turned into two Tiger runs.

"He's not a Gold Glover by any stretch, but there are a lot of guys who have come to the big leagues at first base who aren't as good as he is," Narron said. "The easiest thing in the world is to look at a guy in AA and say he's not going o be any good at defense. As long as you're young and you work on it, you've got a chance to get better. He does that."

----

Several references that say he is a hard worker.

Reportedly has a strong arm.

Concern about him hitting lefthanded pitching:

Last year at AAA: vs lefties

121 ab, 2 hr, 240/347/322/669

http://www.minorleaguesplits.com/cgi-bin/pl.cgi?pl=458015&tm=LouIL&bp=b

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I think the point to look at is not the fieldings stats as an absolute, but rather as an indicator.

If in fact Votto is marginal defensively, does he solve the 1B problem for the O's? Does he move them closer to being a contending team by filling the 1B hole for the next 6 years? Or is he a guy that will not be a good defensive 1B on a contender and therefore ends up at DH?

If he is really a DH, does he belong in a trade for the O's ace? This is the O's only shot to get value for Bedard, should a DH be a center piece of a major trade?

Fielding % is not an indicator unless it is downright horrid.

If you need a scouting report, just ask or as you have done below, research it. Its just pointless to use fielding % to ask whether he has to DH.

From BA:

In a move to increase Votto's versatility, the Reds started playing him in left field last season. He took to the position more quickly than expected, showing average range with a plus arm. At first base, he's average with adequate range.

So basically an average, slightly below average defender. Its first base or left field, so its not a big deal.

He's historically done alright against lefties, but luckily 500 of his ABs will come against RHP. Above average regular that is a borderline all star is probably his upside.

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Fielding % is not an indicator unless it is downright horrid.

If you need a scouting report, just ask or as you have done below, research it. Its just pointless to use fielding % to ask whether he has to DH.

From BA:

So basically an average, slightly below average defender. Its first base or left field, so its not a big deal.

He's historically done alright against lefties, but luckily 500 of his ABs will come against RHP. Above average regular that is a borderline all star is probably his upside.

I see a couple of red flags on Votto that really bother me.

Can you tell me why you say he is historically done alright against lefties? I just posted that he had a 669 OPS vs lefties at AAA last year. Now I see that Baseball Prospectus says he had trouble with lefties in 2006 at AA. If he has had trouble with lefties the last two years in the high minors, he might be a platoon player.

Do you have any information on why you think he has done alright against lefties?

Secondly, one source saying that he is average at 1st compared to several which say he is below average plus a quote from him that acknowledges that he has defensive problems makes me worried about him. I am not really concern with what he can do in leftfield. The O's have several option there. They need a solution at 1B.

If you have any other scouting information that say he is a good 1st baseman, I would love to see them.

A big concern to me is that the O's would be trading their ace to get him and he might be a questionable return. If the O's traded, say Hayden Penn for him that would be a different story, but to have him as a major piece of the Bedard trade seems scary right now to me.

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From ScoutingBook.com

Joey Votto

Born 9/10/1983

1B, CIN

He's got a New Yawk name, but he's the first-baseman of the future for Cincinnati. A .319 hitter with 22 HR's at AA last year, he also showed good speed, notching 24 steals in a full season.

While he may make the Reds out of spring training, a midseason callup is more likely, especially considering the aged state of Cincy's veteran fielders. Votto's only obvious shortcoming is an inability to do much against southpaws: he slugged only .399 against them last year. If he patches this hole, he could find his way to Cincinnati next year, and if manager Dusty Baker's penchant for benching rookies doesn't get in his way, he has a long and solid career as a platoon-player ahead of him. Of course, in Great American, that might still be enough for 30 homers.

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His demands are too high though...No one has jumped at the ridiculous demands..He needs to be realistic before the oppurtunities pass him by.

Actually, this is a quite logical demand now given the Reds recent trade. Maybe the deal can be expanded on the Orioles side in order to get all three, who knows? But AM is doing the right thing here by asking for what he wants. The other thing to consider is what is going on with Seattle. It seems to me of all of these players the one the Orioles most likely covet is Adam Jones because he is a centerfielder. It may be that this demand of the Reds is what he believes is required for them to beat a Mariners deal in his mind. I think Votto is going to be a very good player, but he just isn't as valuable a centerpiece as a potential stud centerfielder.

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I wonder how most of you would choose among the following, all final offers for EB...

#1. The Reds > RHSP's Bailey or Cueto (our choice), 1B Votto, CF Stubbs

#2. Mariners > CF Jones, C Clement or RHP Morrow, RHSP Tillman

#3. Rangers > OF Hamilton, RHSP Hurley, SS Andrus

#4. Keep EB.

........ I can hear the Jeopardy music playing in the background. =)

#2 would easily be my choice. Jones is the best of the group imo, Clement is pretty close to Votto, and Morrow/Tillman easily beats Stubbs. The Reds potential offer would be #2, with the Rangers #3.

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There is 100% no way to say that he's at his maximum trade value now. If there's a team at the deadline that has lost a starter or two, say the reds.... you'd think they'd be more willing to offer up Cueto + Bailey or perhaps Morrow + Jones. Deadline puts more pressure on teams to make a deal. Everyone thinks they've got a decent ballclub now because everyone's in first place. The deadline puts the pressure on some teams. If we don't deal him then, then next offseason is the time to panic, not now. The Orioles have to get a maximum return on this. That's 1000 times more important than going out there and worrying that he's going to get hurt every 5th day. You have to have confidence, and saying "we're going to get a win every 5th day with him" to the teams that want him is how you do it. Not "We're scared he's going to get hurt so we have to deal him now." The fear of injury shouldn't force you to trade anyone, especially a player the caliber of Bedard.

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