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Buck wants J.J. Hardy out of the 2 hole

weams

By weams
in Orioles Talk

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Brooks The Great Major Leaguer

Brooks The Great

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I'd bat him 5th between Davis and Wieters.

Healthy years from Markakis, McClouth, and Reimold are important for the top of the order.

Hardy should be hitting 8th or 9th. His OBP and double play propensity is poison to the rest of our lineup. His (mostly) solo home runs will play just as well at the bottom of the lineup.

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SrMeowMeow Hangout Grand Counsel

SrMeowMeow

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Mark Reynolds would have been a batter #2 hitter on basis of OBP. However, you then take Reynolds out of a better RBI spot in the #6 hole or whatever and replace him with the slumping Hardy there. There is also a team dynamic to think about. The question is, was the benefit so great by removing Hardy and putting Reynolds, Andino, or someone else there? Since most stat guys argue that lineup makeup makes little difference to begin with, I'd say the benefit is far from a no brainer. No one is arguing that any othe hitter would have statistically gotten on base more. Would the Orioles have scored signficantly more runs by having Andino in the #2 hole and Hardy lower in the lineup? Without a good #2 option the answer is, who cares!

There is an argument for putting Hardy in the #2 spot, which is: we shouldn't have expected him to be this bad, and a bad half season or whole season is not as predictive of future production as a sophisticated projection or even career stats in most cases. So I'd still have kept him there over Andino, but not over better options, like Markakis, Reynolds etc.

But yes, we would have scored more runs with a different hitter in the #2 spot. The more OBP you put at the top of your lineup, the more plate appearances they get, and the fewer outs your team makes. The real fiction is the idea of an "RBI spot". Batting order only starts from the top at the beginning of an inning (predictably) once a game. It doesn't matter who's the "leadoff man" and the "table-setter" and the "run producer". You just want to, generally, get your best hitters the most plate appearances, and not put, like, absolutely terrible OBPs at the top of the lineup. And even for his career, Hardy is not a good OBP guy. He's a good hitter for a shortstop, and a very good shortstop, but you don't want to be showcasing that bat in any way.

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mark_beckens Major Leaguer Rising Star

mark_beckens

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Mark Reynolds would have been a batter #2 hitter on basis of OBP. However, you then take Reynolds out of a better RBI spot in the #6 hole or whatever and replace him with the slumping Hardy there. There is also a team dynamic to think about. The question is, was the benefit so great by removing Hardy and putting Reynolds, Andino, or someone else there? Since most stat guys argue that lineup makeup makes little difference to begin with, I'd say the benefit is far from a no brainer. No one is arguing that any othe hitter would have statistically gotten on base more. Would the Orioles have scored signficantly more runs by having Andino in the #2 hole and Hardy lower in the lineup? Without a good #2 option the answer is, who cares!

Yeah, I thought protecting another hitter was a myth.

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