Matt Wieters wants to stay in Baltimore!!!

[waroriole]

It's like crazy pills -- I think I just went through this like three days ago in another thread.

I don't know, I guess I'd have to decide if I wanted to extend him first. But something that makes sense could be worked out. Probably something like:

13 - $4.5 MM

14 - $8.5 MM

15 - $12.5 MM

16 - $16 MM

17 - $16 MM

18 - $18 MM (team option w/$8 MM buyout)

Not sure what combination of bonus $, option management, no trade, etc. would come into play. That's 5/65 guaranteed and I'd allow it to climb to 6/80 or so without much issue. Good chance he is worth that deal, with an opportunity to surpass that value.

I'd also be scrambling to trade for a young catcher were I the O's. There is nothing enticing at the college level in this draft class, so if you want a replacement for some time between 2014-2016, you have to jump on it immediately, I'd think.

Take out the option and that's almost exactly what I said.

[Number5]

It's like crazy pills -- I think I just went through this like three days ago in another thread.

I don't know, I guess I'd have to decide if I wanted to extend him first. But something that makes sense could be worked out. Probably something like:

13 - $4.5 MM

14 - $8.5 MM

15 - $12.5 MM

16 - $16 MM

17 - $16 MM

18 - $18 MM (team option w/$8 MM buyout)

Not sure what combination of bonus $, option management, no trade, etc. would come into play. That's 5/65 guaranteed and I'd allow it to climb to 6/80 or so without much issue. Good chance he is worth that deal, with an opportunity to surpass that value.

I'd also be scrambling to trade for a young catcher were I the O's. There is nothing enticing at the college level in this draft class, so if you want a replacement for some time between 2014-2016, you have to jump on it immediately, I'd think.

So your issue with the post wasn't the dollars, but the lack of an option for a third additional year on the extension. OK, I can see that he might not want to extend for only 2 additional years, but I do think that his signing an extension offering pretty close to his anticipated fair market value, as opposed to his only signing an extension where there appears to be an overpayment is reasonable.

[Tony-OH]

I don't think that's a fair comparison to his situation right now. Boras was a great choice coming out of the draft - it was always going to come down to the last minute with him, and Wieters was going to get a great bonus. And he did. The O's have treated him right, especially since Buck has been here and endorsed Matt as a leader. I think he's definitely more sold on staying long-term than he initially was, especially with Buck and Jones locked up.

We'll see. I'm pretty optimistic. Boras doesn't have as much clout as he used to IMO.

Besides your fandom, what gives you any indication that Boras doesn't have as much clout as he use to? What has Matt done since that gives you any indication he's not going let Boros handle his negotiations. I like Wieters as much as the next guy, but as long as he's a Boras guy, don't fool yourself into thinking Wieters is going to sign a team friendly extension any time soon.

[Stotle]

Take out the option and that's almost exactly what I said.

I don't know that he'd sign my deal either. But the option/buyout is a pretty large distinction between your offer and what I would think I'd be willing to offer.

[Stotle]

So your issue with the post wasn't the dollars, but the lack of an option for a third additional year on the extension. OK, I can see that he might not want to extend for only 2 additional years, but I do think that his signing an extension offering pretty close to his anticipated fair market value, as opposed to his only signing an extension where there appears to be an overpayment is reasonable.

I think you need the third year w/option/buyout in order to have the deal make sense for Wieters. No reason for him just to sign a market 2yr extension. The $18MM third year is possibly higher than he'd otherwise expect to get on an annual basis. The buyout would mean he netted $40 MM in his 1st two FA years, which again is more than I think he'd otherwise get.

[El Gordo]

Wieters has averaged 3.6 rWAR over his first 4 years. That's 16.5 M per. He should get more than jones IMO. 5/80 w 18 M option. Sooner than later he is going to have the monster year with the bat we've been expecting. After that he's off the charts. I think we best be looking for that good young C to trade for.

[luismatos4prez]

Wieters has averaged 3.6 rWAR over his first 4 years. That's 16.5 M per. He should get more than jones IMO.

You have to consider that Jones had about 4 months of team control left, while Wieters currently has three years of team control left. That drives his price down considerably.

Edit: Jones had 1 year and 4 months of team control left.

[Can_of_corn]

You have to consider that Jones had about 4 months of team control left, while Wieters currently has three years of team control left. That drives his price down considerably.

Service Time (01/2013): 5.139

[Stotle]

Wieters has averaged 3.6 rWAR over his first 4 years. That's 16.5 M per. He should get more than jones IMO. 5/80 w 18 M option. Sooner than later he is going to have the monster year with the bat we've been expecting. After that he's off the charts. I think we best be looking for that good young C to trade for.

Probably right.

[clapdiddy]

Probably right.

Yup...I'd be looking to shop Wieters after this season if we can't get him/Boras to agree to an extension. That gives a team 2 years of control over him (albeit expensive) and we should be able to get a haul of talent.

[luismatos4prez]

Service Time (01/2013): 5.139

Shoot, you're right. He wouldn't have been a free agent until after this year. I could have sworn I was right about that. Get it together Matos! Still about half of Wieters' current team control remaining.

[El Gordo]

You have to consider that Jones had about 4 months of team control left, while Wieters currently has three years of team control left. That drives his price down considerably.

He is going to get aroumd 4 M in arb this season. If he has a big year it will jump considerably. 8-10 M maybe. Third year could be 12-14M. He could cost as much as 28 M over the next 3 years IMO. And don't forget if you are negotiating an extension you are still dealing with Boras.

[brianod]

I think I would like to see one more year out of him. I think the time for this conversation might very well be next year. I don't believe he will ever be a monster offensively. If he doesn't drastically improve this year, I think that we can definitely say, he's good, not great offensively. That will go a long way to determining market value. I wouldn't offer him more because of his agent and I wouldn't expect any discounts. Wait a year and offer him market value. Alternatively, offer him market value now based on past statistics. What is the worst that can happen by waiting a year? He has a monster year next year? Oh well, I guess I can live with that.

[El Gordo]

I think I would like to see one more year out of him. I think the time for this conversation might very well be next year. I don't believe he will ever be a monster offensively. If he doesn't drastically improve this year, I think that we can definitely say, he's good, not great offensively. That will go a long way to determining market value. I wouldn't offer him more because of his agent and I wouldn't expect any discounts. Wait a year and offer him market value. Alternatively, offer him market value now based on past statistics. What is the worst that can happen by waiting a year? He has a monster year next year? Oh well, I guess I can live with that.

The risk you take is that if he does have a good year we can forget about any chance of extending him next year.

[DrinkinWithFermi]

Way too much. Something like this:

'13: 4.5M

'14: 8M

'15: 12M

'16: 16M

'17: 17M

That's 5/57.5 and probably a pretty fair deal.

Yeah, you're probably right. I had spent some time at the bar last night, and it may have affected my judgement.

Still, I would expect to overpay a bit on arbitration years in order to facillitate the deal, and I'm okay with that- I don't want to go back to the days when we were starting the Sal Fasanos and Paul Bakos of the world.