Latest Roch ...

[Sandwich Pick]

Actually, now that you say that, i would require 2 of Kotchman, Kendrick and Wood....Then Adenhart.

I would be fine with 3 of them.

Kendrick, Wood, Adenhart easily bests the M's and Reds rumored proposals. I, however, do not see LAA making that deal IMO. If we expanded the deal to include Roberts, I think it is possible to get that trio plus others.

[bigbird]

I don't think LAA is even in the mix at this point.

[Sports Guy]

I don't think LAA is even in the mix at this point.

Yea, i doubt they are either.

Do you know which team Sonny was referring too?

[Mackus]

Yea, i doubt they are either.

Do you know which team Sonny was referring too?

I've thought he was talking about the Rangers nearly every time he's brought it up. Who knows though.

[orifan]

I don't think LAA is even in the mix at this point.

IYO, is it because they are not interested, or because McP doesn't see a good return coming from them?

[hoosiers]

Actually, now that you say that, i would require 2 of Kotchman, Kendrick and Wood....Then Adenhart.

I would be fine with 3 of them.

Good luck with this. We can't get three top prospects for EB and you ask for two quality major leagues and another top prospect.

[RShack]

Right. To me, that's just downright bizarre. It's also a contrast from what he did in AA when he was 21, when his OBP was 70 points above his BA. Like I said before, he was never especially great at taking walks, but that total for AAA/ML is just a freaky number. The only way I can make sense of it is that he was just trying too hard. I don't know what else it could be.

Could it be that LH was overmatched? Could it be that LH's pitch recognition was not AAA or MLB caliber?

Well, it happened before and he recovered from it. If you look where he mainly played, year-by-year, and look at how he did with BB's at whereever he got most of his AB's for each year, you see something that's almost a pattern. When he was 18, he drew a walk once for every 10 AB's. In the subsequent 2 years, he got worse: once for every 14 AB's when he was 19, and then once for every 25 AB's when he was 20. So, you might say he was couldn't see pitches by the time he got to A+ ball. But then as a 21 year old in AA, he got it back to where it had been: a BB for every 10 AB's again. Then as a 22 year old it got worse, back to 14 again, and as a 23 year old in AA it went back to 20. So far, it's something that he gets and then he loses. Dunno why. All we know for sure is that he's had very, very different years in this regard, and that prior to his AAA/ML number, it was almost like a repeating pattern. All I know is that he's been quite different at it, year by year. Dunno why. Maybe he had a different coach every year telling him to do something different, or maybe he was just pressing. Your guess is as good as mine.

[ON BASE %]

Well, it happened before and he recovered from it. If you look where he mainly played, year-by-year, and look at how he did with BB's at whereever he got most of his AB's for each year, you see something that's almost a pattern. When he was 18, he drew a walk once for every 10 AB's. In the subsequent 2 years, he got worse: once for every 14 AB's when he was 19, and then once for every 25 AB's when he was 20. So, you might say he was couldn't see pitches by the time he got to A+ ball. But then as a 21 year old in AA, he got it back to where it had been: a BB for every 10 AB's again. Then as a 22 year old it got worse, back to 14 again, and as a 23 year old in AA it went back to 20. So far, it's something that he gets and then he loses. Dunno why. All we know for sure is that he's had very, very different years in this regard, and that prior to his AAA/ML number, it was almost like a repeating pattern. All I know is that he's been quite different at it, year by year. Dunno why. Maybe he had a different coach every year telling him to do something different, or maybe he was just pressing. Your guess is as good as mine.

Unfortunately the trend the past two years hasn't been good for LH. But like you said the walk rates did improve in several seasons.

I can say this much, LH won't be getting much help from Crowley or the minor league hitting coaches. Their track record for improving walk rates is not good.

So it's going to be up to LH to adapt to AAA/MLB pitching. IMO, he's going to have to sink or swim on his own.

It's very difficult to see where AM and the front office are headed right now. But I have a feeling that the Orioles brass thinks enough of LH that he will be getting regular playing time either at AAA or MLB. So by the end of 2008 we'll have a more definitive answer on LH. His future in professional baseball may well hinge on plate discipline.

[Sports Guy]

The problem is, since his first stint in AA, his walk rate is awful...As he moved up the ladder, this became a problem.

Holding onto hope for him would be like saying that some pitcher had a 2 ERA in single A but since then, it has been 5....So, would you hold out hope that he would be that 2 ERA guy again or would you assume that was a fluke?

[Fan4Life]

The problem is, since his first stint in AA, his walk rate is awful...As he moved up the ladder, this became a problem.

Holding onto hope for him would be like saying that some pitcher had a 2 ERA in single A but since then, it has been 5....So, would you hold out hope that he would be that 2 ERA guy again or would you assume that was a fluke?

What level would you classify the Venezuelen League he played in this winter? He had 9 BB's in 131 abats. Perhaps thats a very low level of competition.

[Sports Guy]

What level would you classify the Venezuelen League he played in this winter? He had 9 BB's in 131 abats. Perhaps thats a very low level of competition.

Well first of all, that is only about 40 walks in a 600 at bat season...That's not much at all.

Secondly, I would guess that is around A ball but I really am not sure.

[Frobby]

But I never did that. I said that I think Frobby jumped to a conclusion about LH's ML OBP that is a premature conclusion based on my view of LH's stats. My opinion is based on looking at his MiL stats too, and in some detail. So, sorry for busting your knee-jerk reaction, but both sides of this are based on looking at stats. In general, I think it's how you look at stats that makes a difference. In this case, Frobby and I were looking at stats and seeing similar-but-still-different things.

Now, I would never lump Frobby into any category except into the category "guys who are reasonable and fair-minded". But that doesn't mean he's always right either.

I wouldn't claim to be right all the time. But I have a very hard time believing LH is going to put up an OBP in the majors that is north of .300.

Let's just look at AA, where LH has had the majority of his AB for each of the last 3 years:

2005: .243/.315/.311 (415 AB)

2006: .268/.308/.329 (380 AB)

2007: .242/.276/.316 (364 AB)

No small sample sizes there, just pretty consistent poor hitting. BA right around .250, OBP right around .300 in 1159 AA at bats. That's completely consistent with what he did in his other 1050 minor league AB. So why would I expect the guy to move up to the majors and have his OBP improve?

Just a little test here (career OBP in minors and majors):

Brian Roberts -- .026 drop from minors to majors

Nick Markakis -- .023 drop from minors to majors

Kevin Millar -- .024 drop from minors to majors

Aubrey Huff -- .041 drop from minors to majors

Melvin Mora -- .004 gain from minors to majors

Ramon Hernandez -- .053 drop from minors to majors

Corey Patterson -- .040 drop from minors to majors

Jay Payton -- .048 drop from minors to majors

Jay Gibbons -- .086 drop from minors to majors

Miguel Tejada -- .004 drop from minors to majors

Freddy Bynum -- .048 drop from minors to majors

Tike Redman -- .016 drop from minors to majors

Chris Gomez -- .007 drop from minors to majors

Paul Bako -- .039 drop from minors to majors

Alberto Castillo -- .043 drop from minors to majors

Brandon Fahey -- .034 drop from minors to majors

So out of 16 players who played for the O's in 2007 and who have had a signficant number of major league AB, 15 of them have had a career OBP in the majors that is worse than what they did in the minors. On average, the group dropped by .034.

Now consider that:

1. The comparison above is with career averages. It would probably be worse if I looked at the first year in which the player exceeded 100 major league at bats.

2. Hernandez has not really spent any substantial time above AA, with only 175 AB above that level. So he'd really be jumping two levels. It can be done (see Nick Markakis), but its one more reason for his OBP to suffer.

Add all this up and you have a very tough case for an OBP above .300, in my opinion.

[ON BASE %]

I wouldn't claim to be right all the time. But I have a very hard time believing LH is going to put up an OBP in the majors that is north of .300.

Let's just look at AA, where LH has had the majority of his AB for each of the last 3 years:

2005: .243/.315/.311 (415 AB)

2006: .268/.308/.329 (380 AB)

2007: .242/.276/.316 (364 AB)

No small sample sizes there, just pretty consistent poor hitting. BA right around .250, OBP right around .300 in 1159 AA at bats. That's completely consistent with what he did in his other 1050 minor league AB. So why would I expect the guy to move up to the majors and have his OBP improve?

Just a little test here (career OBP in minors and majors):

Brian Roberts -- .026 drop from minors to majors

Nick Markakis -- .023 drop from minors to majors

Kevin Millar -- .024 drop from minors to majors

Aubrey Huff -- .041 drop from minors to majors

Melvin Mora -- .004 gain from minors to majors

Ramon Hernandez -- .053 drop from minors to majors

Corey Patterson -- .040 drop from minors to majors

Jay Payton -- .048 drop from minors to majors

Jay Gibbons -- .086 drop from minors to majors

Miguel Tejada -- .004 drop from minors to majors

Freddy Bynum -- .048 drop from minors to majors

Tike Redman -- .016 drop from minors to majors

Chris Gomez -- .007 drop from minors to majors

Paul Bako -- .039 drop from minors to majors

Alberto Castillo -- .043 drop from minors to majors

Brandon Fahey -- .034 drop from minors to majors

So out of 16 players who played for the O's in 2007 and who have had a signficant number of major league AB, 15 of them have had a career OBP in the majors that is worse than what they did in the minors. On average, the group dropped by .034.

Now consider that:

1. The comparison above is with career averages. It would probably be worse if I looked at the first year in which the player exceeded 100 major league at bats.

2. Hernandez has not really spent any substantial time above AA, with only 175 AB above that level. So he'd really be jumping two levels. It can be done (see Nick Markakis), but its one more reason for his OBP to suffer.

Add all this up and you have a very tough case for an OBP above .300, in my opinion.

FRobby, thanks that was very well put together. It's just my opinion but if LH starts for the Orioles in 2008 I think his OBP will fall between .270 and .300, which is probably optimistic.

[Frobby]

FRobby, thanks that was very well put together. It's just my opinion but if LH starts for the Orioles in 2008 I think his OBP will fall between .270 and .300, which is probably optimistic.

I'd agree with the .270-.300 range. Throw in an SLG not much above .300 (if at all) and you're looking at a player who may not surpass .600 OPS, and if he does, it won't be by much.

With that kind of hitting, he'd have to be an absolute magician with the glove to be a starter.

[RShack]

1. The comparison above is with career averages. It would probably be worse if I looked at the first year in which the player exceeded 100 major league at bats.

2. Hernandez has not really spent any substantial time above AA, with only 175 AB above that level. So he'd really be jumping two levels. It can be done (see Nick Markakis), but its one more reason for his OBP to suffer.

Add all this up and you have a very tough case for an OBP above .300, in my opinion.

I agree that you have a perfectly rational case and, as I said, I was not dismissing your prediction. However, I do think it's still premature, based on the guy's history. The pattern you cite for the last 3 years is somewhat similar to the pattern of his 1st three years in professional ball. Here is the pattern, looking at his performance at whichever level he had his most AB's for a given year:

• Age 18 (and 21): a BB for each ~10 AB's
• Age 19 (and 22): a BB for each ~14 AB's
• Age 20 (and 23): a BB less often than each 20 AB's

Observe that after his 20-year-old season (which also was at a higher level than he had experienced before), he bounced back at the next higher level by returning to his "BB for each 10 AB's" level. So, all I'm saying is that we've seen this movie before. Also note that the greatest number of AB's last year were at AA, so that's the ratio I'm looking at.

Now, I agree completely that his 1 BB per 175 AB's in AAA/ML is downright bizarre. Note that it spans 3 teams in different years. My head is not in the sand about that; to the contrary, I believe that I'm the first one here to have pointed it out. Nor do I expect that he will magically become some paragon of drawing walks. I'm simply pointing out that he's had decent walk-rates in 2 non-contiguous seasons before, and that previous efforts to raise his BA have been associated with a significant decrease in BB's. That makes me think that a big part of this is him trying too hard. It could also be the result of having different coaches each year telling him different things, but we don't have any info about that. All I know for sure is that he has not presented a consistent story about BB's, and has been more inconsistent in that regard than have other players with whom I am familiar. As with any phenomenon, a history such as this makes prediction much more uncertain than does a consistent history. I believe that the idea that a guy stops developing as a hitter the minute he turns 23 is ludicrous and, while I don't see any reason whatsoever to expect him to become strong at drawing walks, I think his history provides ample room for uncertainty about whether or not he will prove to be bad at it.

Anyway, my core point is not that he's gonna become an OBP machine, because I don't expect that. I think the truth of the matter is that this history is sufficiently different, year-by-year, that we have stats available to slice-and-dice to support either the "all-is-doomed" conclusion or the "too-soon-to-tell" conclusion, depending on how you look at them. The whole way this got started is that I was suggesting alternative hypotheses to the single hypothesis offered by vatech about what the O's are thinking. I offered 2 alternate hypotheses, 1 of which is that his OBP might improve, just as it has done before, that's all. And, as usual around here, anyone who suggests any possibility other than "LH is garbage" gets lambasted by more-than-several people. In contrast to most, your view is rational and non-emotional, and is based on more than just a superficial glance at summary data devoid of any context (which is all that most of the yellers seem to do). So, respect to you. If he does get an ample supply of big-league AB's, it will be interesting to see what his OBP proves to be. While I grant that it could prove to be sub-.300, I also believe that outcome is neither predestined nor certain nor almost-certain. That's why they play the game, to see what happens. And, silly me, if a kid is getting his big chance in an O's uniform, I'm looking for bright spots and rooting for him like crazy. It's how my daddy raised me. So, I'm glad, not disappointed, that he hit .290, and my hope is that he can keep on hitting singles while he gets better at drawing walks. Somehow, that makes people start yelling that the kid is garbage, which to me seems pretty sad. Personally, I'm glad the kid made the most of his big chance last year, and I hope he does well in whatever opportunities he gets in 2008.