Latest Roch ...

[Frobby]

I agree that you have a perfectly rational case and, as I said, I was not dismissing your prediction. However, I do think it's still premature, based on the guy's history. The pattern you cite for the last 3 years is somewhat similar to the pattern of his 1st three years in professional ball. Here is the pattern, looking at his performance at whichever level he had his most AB's for a given year:

• Age 18 (and 21): a BB for each ~10 AB's
• Age 19 (and 22): a BB for each ~14 AB's
• Age 20 (and 23): a BB less often than each 20 AB's

Observe that after his 20-year-old season (which also was at a higher level than he had experienced before), he bounced back at the next higher level by returning to his "BB for each 10 AB's" level. So, all I'm saying is that we've seen this movie before. Also note that the greatest number of AB's last year were at AA, so that's the ratio I'm looking at.

Now, I agree completely that his 1 BB per 175 AB's in AAA/ML is downright bizarre. Note that it spans 3 teams in different years. My head is not in the sand about that; to the contrary, I believe that I'm the first one here to have pointed it out. Nor do I expect that he will magically become some paragon of drawing walks. I'm simply pointing out that he's had decent walk-rates in 2 non-contiguous seasons before, and that previous efforts to raise his BA have been associated with a significant decrease in BB's. That makes me think that a big part of this is him trying too hard. It could also be the result of having different coaches each year telling him different things, but we don't have any info about that. All I know for sure is that he has not presented a consistent story about BB's, and has been more inconsistent in that regard than have other players with whom I am familiar. As with any phenomenon, a history such as this makes prediction much more uncertain than does a consistent history.

Anyway, my core point is not that he's gonna become an OBP machine, because I don't expect that. I think the truth of the matter is that this history is sufficiently different, year-by-year, that we have stats available to slice-and-dice to support either the "all-is-doomed" conclusion or the "too-soon-to-tell" conclusion, depending on how you look at them. The whole way this got started is that I was suggesting alternative hypotheses to the single hypothesis offered by vatech about what the O's are thinking. I offered 2 alternate hypotheses, 1 of which is that his OBP might improve, just as it has done before, that's all. And, as usual around here, anyone who suggests any possibility other than "LH is garbage" gets lambasted by more-than-several people. In contrast to most, your view is rational and non-emotional, and is based on more than just a superficial glance at summary data devoid of any context (which is all that most of the yellers seem to do). So, respect to you. If he does get an ample supply of big-league AB's, it will be interesting to see what his OBP proves to be. While I grant that it could prove to be sub-.300, I also believe that outcome is neither predestined nor certain nor almost-certain. That's why they play the game, to see what happens. And, silly me, if a kid is getting his big chance in an O's uniform, I'm looking for bright spots and rooting for him like crazy. It's how my daddy raised me.

Well, I agree with your last point, i.e., you never know for sure until you put them out there and see what happens. And I also agree that he will walk more often than once every 175 AB, even if he doesn't suddenly become a walk machine. Otherwise, though, I really feel the odds against LH putting up a .300+ OBP are very long.

Maybe a better question is, what OBP is acceptable? I can conjure up scenarios where LH has an OBP of .310 with no power to speak of. Would that be good enough? To me, LH would have to be one of the top 2-3 defensive shortstops in baseball for that to merit any consideration at all. Adam Everett, who by several measures is the best defensive SS around, just got DFA'd by the Astros. His career offensive line is .248/.299/.357, which is actually a little better than LH's career minor league line of .250/.299/.325. Even so, the Astros couldn't carry his glove any longer.

[RShack]

Maybe a better question is, what OBP is acceptable? I can conjure up scenarios where LH has an OBP of .310 with no power to speak of. Would that be good enough? To me, LH would have to be one of the top 2-3 defensive shortstops in baseball for that to merit any consideration at all.

I agree with this. And, if the O's choose to find out, I can't think of a better season that '08 to do so, what with the if-fy kid pitchers and zero chance to contend. If they had a chance to contend, I'd be way less motivated to find out, which seems to run contrary to much of the loud opinion around here.

ps. I think the upside scenario is Vizquel. When they each moved to A+ LH was a slightly better, while Vizquel was slightly better upon arrival in AA, but their respective OPS were very similar both times. SEA took a chance on Vizquel from AA and tolerated a 5-something OPS to let him develop. It's not that Vizquel was lights-out better in the minors. If you look at their MiL history, LH was actually better than Vizquel at getting hits. The main place he was worse was at drawing walks.

[Frobby]

I agree with this. And, if the O's choose to find out, I can't think of a better season that '08 to do so, what with the if-fy kid pitchers and zero chance to contend. If they had a chance to contend, I'd be way less motivated to find out, which seems to run contrary to much of the loud opinion around here.

I would think that they should have a very good idea of just how good his glove really is. We've only seen him for 139 innings at SS, but they had knowledgeable people watching him for 99 games at Bowie and Norfolk, plus whatever their scouts saw of him when he was in the Atlanta organization. I don't know what they think of his glove based on the information we don't have, but certainly they must have an opinion.

I don't really disagree with your logic as stated above. I just think it's a longshot all the way around that LH is going to be an acceptable answer at SS in the long run.

[Sports Guy]

LH's BA was an empty 290 and his BABIP was very lucky...Had his BABIP just been league average, his OPS is probably under 600 last year in his small sample size.

I wonder if that .290 BA wasn't there and his OPS didn't start with a 6 if anyone would still be clamoring for him???

[Frobby]

LH's BA was an empty 290 and his BABIP was very lucky...Had his BABIP just been league average, his OPS is probably under 600 last year in his small sample size.

I wonder if that .290 BA wasn't there and his OPS didn't start with a 6 if anyone would still be clamoring for him???

To be fair, I don't think Rshack is "clamoring" for him. That's not how I read his posts.

I agree with your points. The other factor is that, putting aside LH's individual performance, the O's played unexpectedly well in July while LH was here. The defense overall was stellar that month and the team had a winning record. The team won the first 7 times he started at SS. In some people's minds, LH is associated with that winning period and that's why they can imagine the team carrying him at SS.

Of course, they forget that he hit .333/.351/.389 during that callup, but only .242/.242/.333 when he was recalled.

[El Gordo]

I would think that they should have a very good idea of just how good his glove really is. We've only seen him for 139 innings at SS, but they had knowledgeable people watching him for 99 games at Bowie and Norfolk, plus whatever their scouts saw of him when he was in the Atlanta organization. I don't know what they think of his glove based on the information we don't have, but certainly they must have an opinion.

I don't really disagree with your logic as stated above. I just think it's a longshot all the way around that LH is going to be an acceptable answer at SS in the long run.

You would have to think they think a lot of it, otherwise there is no reason for him to be in baseball, let alone being considered as a fallback option to start.

[Sports Guy]

To be fair, I don't think Rshack is "clamoring" for him. That's not how I read his posts.

I agree with your points. The other factor is that, putting aside LH's individual performance, the O's played unexpectedly well in July while LH was here. The defense overall was stellar that month and the team had a winning record. The team won the first 7 times he started at SS. In some people's minds, LH is associated with that winning period and that's why they can imagine the team carrying him at SS.

Of course, they forget that he hit .333/.351/.389 during that callup, but only .242/.242/.333 when he was recalled.

Yep..Fully agree...Had we been under 500 with him as the SS and had his BABIP been normal and not lucky and his OPS was 580 and his BA was 240, would people even mention him??

This wouldn't take anything away from his defense, so they should but I doubt they would.

[Sandwich Pick]

December 27 2007

I haven't heard any talk about sending Jeremy Guthrie to the White Sox. That's a new one. I'd find it hard to believe that the Orioles would relinquish Guthrie, since he's exactly what they're looking for at this time - young, major league ready and under their control for a while.

Can anyone fill me in on why Roch would be shooting down a Guthrie-to-CWS rumor? I haven't heard anything about that anywhere else. Sounds like a steaming pile to me. Thanks!

[mtairydan]

December 27 2007

Can anyone fill me in on why Roch would be shooting down a Guthrie-to-CWS rumor? I haven't heard anything about that anywhere else. Sounds like a steaming pile to me. Thanks!

That was supposed to be a hot rumor on a CWS message board (no further details or a link was given) and I have not been able to find anything regarding this rumor as of yet.

Here is the posted comment from Roch's Blog: "Roch, there is a hot rumor on the White Sox site that the O's are going to send Guthrie and 4 prospects to the White Sox for Joe Crede and Juan Uribe. . Surely the O's are not that stupid!! Crede is just coming off back surgery and Uribe can't hit his weight. Guthrie is a solid #2 and will be even better this year. Check it out for inquiring minds please."

[coe76]

I can think of a number of different trade scenarios the Os could do with the White Sox but Guthrie and 4 more of ours for Crede and Uribe certainly would be somewhere around # 3 trillion I think. That trade has as much chance of happening as me being named President of the U.S., dating Jessica Simpson, and winning the lottery all in the same day. Not...Gonna...Happen!

[Sandwich Pick]

That was supposed to be a hot rumor on a CWS message board (no further details or a link was given) and I have not been able to find anything regarding this rumor as of yet.

Here is the posted comment from Roch's Blog: "Roch, there is a hot rumor on the White Sox site that the O's are going to send Guthrie and 4 prospects to the White Sox for Joe Crede and Juan Uribe. . Surely the O's are not that stupid!! Crede is just coming off back surgery and Uribe can't hit his weight. Guthrie is a solid #2 and will be even better this year. Check it out for inquiring minds please."

Wow, what an awful deal. I highly doubt that was ever anything more than BS. Thanks for the info!

[bandy75]

I'm not sure we have the 4 prospects behind Guthrie to yield Crede and Uribe:eek: lol

[clarence]

Roch shouldn't even have acknowledged something that ridiculous. Guthrie straight up for those two would be questionable with our pitching situation.

[Sandwich Pick]

Roch shouldn't even have acknowledged something that ridiculous. Guthrie straight up for those two would be questionable with our pitching situation.

IMO Guthrie has way, way more value than both of those two combined.

[Sandwich Pick]

December 27, 2007

Projected and rejected

I took the advice of one reader and Googled the words “Marisa Miller” and “iPod.” My vision’s still blurred, but I’ll try to write this entry.

While contributing to a magazine’s baseball preview edition, I had to post a mock batting order, bench, rotation and bullpen for the Orioles. It’s still so early, but I needed to pretend that Opening Day was tomorrow. And I needed to resist the urge to scream.

Lineup:

2B – Brian Roberts

3B – Melvin Mora

RF – Nick Markakis

1B – Kevin Millar

DH – Aubrey Huff

C – Ramon Hernandez

LF – Luke Scott

CF – Jay Payton

SS – Luis Hernandez

I noted that Payton could platoon in left if he’s not traded. Tike Redman could play center. Freddie Bynum could play center. Paul Blair could come out of retirement. But for now, I’ve got Payton in center while waiting for the Orioles to make another move.

Was Corey Patterson so bad?

I put Bynum, Redman, Scott Moore, Jay Gibbons and catcher Guillermo Quiroz on the bench. Yes, Guillermo Quiroz is the early favorite to back up Ramon Hernandez. Maybe Brandon Fahey cracks this group. Maybe one of Chris Gomez’s old batting gloves becomes the 25th man.

The first four spots in the rotation were easy: Erik Bedard, Jeremy Guthrie, Adam Loewen and Daniel Cabrera. The winner of the fifth slot would be determined in a steel-cage match involving Garrett Olson, Brian Burres, Troy Patton, Matt Albers and Hayden Penn. Radhames Liz can hand out towels at the end before reporting to Norfolk.

Matt Clement might not be such a gamble afterall.

Now for the bullpen.

Should we really go there?

Jamie Walker and Chad Bradford are slam dunks. Burres can be the long man if he doesn’t make the rotation (I believe the other fifth-starter candidates should be starting in Norfolk if they’re not in the majors). Dennis Sarfate, acquired in the Miguel Tejada trade, is out of options and must make the team or someone will claim him off waivers. Randor Bierd is a Rule 5 pick who has to stick around or be offered back to the Tigers for $25,000 – roughly the cost of Aubrey Huff’s “incidentals” on road trips. Jim Hoey didn’t make much of an impression on manager Dave Trembley, and team president Andy MacPhail won’t rush any prospects. In my book, that spells N-O-R-F-O-L-K. But there’s always Fernando Cabrera, who allowed 14 runs and 12 hits, and walked nine, in 10 innings after joining the Orioles. And Greg Aquino, signed off waivers from the Brewers. And Rocky Cherry – porn star or ice cream flavor.

I’m getting sad.

It’s still early. Opening Day isn’t tomorrow. And that’s good, because there’s a lot of work to be done.

December 27, 2007

My God that lineup makes me want to puke. I truly hope we get these Roberts, Bedard, and other deals done before OD.