Latest Roch ...

[Fan4Life]

I think basing anything on such a ridiculously small sample size as either of their major league careers is foolish. You have to look at their minor league numbers. Now maybe Hernandez will outplay his minor league track record and Fahey won't, but even if that happens, then Hernandez is probably only equal to Fahey.

Neither are going to have any pop, but Fahey at least is just bad at getting on base and not utterly abysmal. Fahey has a career .322 OBP in the minors, Hernandez is .299.

Both are terrible, but its clear that Fahey has the better minor league numbers and is therefore more likely to have the better MLB numbers. Neither are even remotely likely to be above replacement level though. And either would be absolutely terrible choices to start in Baltimore ever. Better options are available for free all across the league and even in places like the Mexican Leagues.

Offensively I think we agree there isn't a lot of difference... do you value Fahey over LH defensively?

[Mackus]

Offensively I think we agree there isn't a lot of difference... do you value Fahey over LH defensively?

I don't agree that there isn't a lot of difference offensively. I think its quite clear that Fahey is far better, and will likely be at least 50 points higher in OPS. Now, Fahey is still terrible offensively, but terrible is far better than whatever Hernandez' offense can be described as. Hernandez will have a legit shot next year at one of the lowest OPS in all of baseball by a regular in the past 10-20 years.

I think the defenses are close. I've seen more of Fahey than Hernandez, and I've liked it. I'd lean towards Fahey, but don't begrudge those who think Hernandez is better. I do disagree with anyone who thinks either of their defenses make up for how pathetic their offenses are. A defense-first SS would be a fine move, as long as he's not completely devoid of offense, as Fahey and even moreso Hernandez are.

[Mackus]

Just for fun, here are the lowest OPS over the past 20 years by a player qualified for the batting title:

.512 Alfredo Griffin, SS, 1990

.518 Billy Ripken, 2B, 1988

.530 Matt Walbeck, C, 1994

.542 Einar Diaz, C, 2001

.544 Jose Lind, 2B, 1992

.576 Scott Brosius, 3B, 1997

Source It was sorted by position, so there are probably a few other 2B, SS, and C between the .544 and .576, but not many. Hernandez had a .592 OPS at AA and a .546 OPS at AAA last year.

[Sports Guy]

Well, if he does start, then I expect he will have a ton of people rooting both for him and against him for reasons that have zero to do with him. Personally, when a young kid gets a shot at the big leagues wearing an O's uniform, I hope he does well, and that's true no matter what side of anybody's OPS-dogma he happens to be on. However, I fully expect that some folks would hope he falls on his face simply because they are so invested in what his MiL OPS said. Which is pretty sad, if you ask me.

No, we don't want him starting because we like winning...He isn't someone who help you win games. He has negative value.

Obviously, you don't cherish getting back to prominance like the rest of us do but some do care about that.

[Sports Guy]

Just for fun, here are the lowest OPS over the past 20 years by a player qualified for the batting title:

.512 Alfredo Griffin, SS, 1990

.518 Billy Ripken, 2B, 1988

.530 Matt Walbeck, C, 1994

.542 Einar Diaz, C, 2001

.544 Jose Lind, 2B, 1992

.576 Scott Brosius, 3B, 1997

Source It was sorted by position, so there are probably a few other 2B, SS, and C between the .544 and .576, but not many. Hernandez had a .592 OPS at AA and a .546 OPS at AAA last year.

But this doesn't mean anything!!

Obviously he can be better hitter against the best in the world mackus! Duh...You are so stupid!

[Fan4Life]

I don't agree that there isn't a lot of difference offensively. I think its quite clear that Fahey is far better, and will likely be at least 50 points higher in OPS. Now, Fahey is still terrible offensively, but terrible is far better than whatever Hernandez' offense can be described as. Hernandez will have a legit shot next year at one of the lowest OPS in all of baseball by a regular in the past 10-20 years.

I think the defenses are close. I've seen more of Fahey than Hernandez, and I've liked it. I'd lean towards Fahey, but don't begrudge those who think Hernandez is better. I do disagree with anyone who thinks either of their defenses make up for how pathetic their offenses are. A defense-first SS would be a fine move, as long as he's not completely devoid of offense, as Fahey and even moreso Hernandez are.

Fahey's carrer MiLB #'s over 6 seasons:

.307 .336 .266

LH over 6 seaons

.289 .323 .246

You see that as a larger difference? It's hardly a large difference to me. And Fahey has done squat at the ML level..... I might consider a platoon between them.... :002_ssuprised:

[RShack]

Obviously, you don't cherish getting back to prominance like the rest of us do but some do care about that.

You just never know when to stop. I disagree with what I consider to be your unreasonable and poorly thought-thru priorities about a good-D SS during a year that doesn't matter, and you claim I don't want the O's to be a good franchise again. I guess this is another case of "either you're with us or against us". Great thinking, as always.

[Mackus]

Fahey's carrer MiLB #'s over 6 seasons:

.307 .336 .266

LH over 6 seaons

.289 .323 .246

You see that as a larger difference? It's hardly a large difference to me. And Fahey has done squat at the ML level..... I might consider a platoon between them.... :002_ssuprised:

33 OPS points isn't meaningless. And Fahey has been even more better (guh, how bout that phrasing) at the higher levels than Hernandez has.

I have little doubt that Fahey would outhit Hernandez by the tune of about 50 OPS points, maybe even more.

Obviously neither of these guys are guys you actually want starting, but between the two of them, Fahey is the better option, as he is far more likely to be less embarassing at the plate (but embarassing nonetheless).

My current #1 option is Mora at SS.

[TommyD4207]

Not by any sort of real analysis. Fahey's put up a .716 OPS at AAA in '06 and a .625 OPS in '07. Hernandez put up a .592 at AA and a .546 at AAA last season.

Fahey is bad, Hernandez is worse.

I'll take Fahey's glove over Hernandez' as well, although they are both above average defensively.

Fahey is better than LH....The defensive edge goes to LH but not be a lot and Fahey will give us 75-100 points more in OPS.

I would agree that the defensive edge certainly goes to LH and I think it's by a significant amount, as well.

In 23 games at SS last year, LH had 5 RAR2 (my personal favorite fielding stat) and his Rate2 was 108.

In 18 games at SS last year, Fahey had -1 RAR2 and his Rate was 72.

I have no idea how Fahey is supposedly better at SS.

While we're at it, there's also WARP.

In 30 games, LH had a WARP of 0.3. Extrapolate that over the course of the season and you get approximately 1.62 WARP. Pretty pathetic, I'll give you. Can't say I'm supporter of him being a starting SS.

However, in 40 games, Fahey had a WARP of -0.4. That comes out to a -1.62 WARP over the course of 162 games.

That puts Hernandez as about 3 1/4 games better than Fahey over the course of last year.

Even in Fahey's year in 2006 where he was certainly better, his WARP was only 0.5 over the course of 84 games. That puts him at less than 1 game WARP.

From watching them both and looking at fielding statistics, it is apparent in my opinion that Hernandez is a much better defensive SS.

As far as hitting goes, Fahey entered professional baseball when he was 21 years of age. He'll be 27 before the season starts. Luis Hernandez will still be 23 when the season starts.

I don't want either of them as the Orioles starting SS next year really, but I don't really see why there's anything close to a clear edge to Fahey at all whatsoever.

[Fan4Life]

I would agree that the defensive edge certainly goes to LH and I think it's by a significant amount, as well.

In 23 games at SS last year, LH had 5 RAR2 (my personal favorite fielding stat) and his Rate2 was 108.

In 18 games at SS last year, Fahey had -1 RAR2 and his Rate was 72.

I have no idea how Fahey is supposedly better at SS.

While we're at it, there's also WARP.

In 30 games, LH had a WARP of 0.3. Extrapolate that over the course of the season and you get approximately 1.62 WARP. Pretty pathetic, I'll give you. Can't say I'm supporter of him being a starting SS.

However, in 40 games, Fahey had a WARP of -0.4. That comes out to a -1.62 WARP over the course of 162 games.

That puts Hernandez as about 3 1/4 games better than Fahey over the course of last year.

Even in Fahey's year in 2006 where he was certainly better, his WARP was only 0.5 over the course of 84 games. That puts him at less than 1 game WARP.

From watching them both and looking at fielding statistics, it is apparent in my opinion that Hernandez is a much better defensive SS.

As far as hitting goes, Fahey entered professional baseball when he was 21 years of age. He'll be 27 before the season starts. Luis Hernandez will still be 23 when the season starts.

I don't want either of them as the Orioles starting SS next year really, but I don't really see why there's anything close to a clear edge to Fahey at all whatsoever.

They're going to tell you that you are using the wrong numbers. I don't think so... but they do....

[Mackus]

I would agree that the defensive edge certainly goes to LH and I think it's by a significant amount, as well.

In 23 games at SS last year, LH had 5 RAR2 (my personal favorite fielding stat) and his Rate2 was 108.

In 18 games at SS last year, Fahey had -1 RAR2 and his Rate was 72.

I have no idea how Fahey is supposedly better at SS.

While we're at it, there's also WARP.

In 30 games, LH had a WARP of 0.3. Extrapolate that over the course of the season and you get approximately 1.62 WARP. Pretty pathetic, I'll give you. Can't say I'm supporter of him being a starting SS.

However, in 40 games, Fahey had a WARP of -0.4. That comes out to a -1.62 WARP over the course of 162 games.

That puts Hernandez as about 3 1/4 games better than Fahey over the course of last year.

Even in Fahey's year in 2006 where he was certainly better, his WARP was only 0.5 over the course of 84 games. That puts him at less than 1 game WARP.

From watching them both and looking at fielding statistics, it is apparent in my opinion that Hernandez is a much better defensive SS.

As far as hitting goes, Fahey entered professional baseball when he was 21 years of age. He'll be 27 before the season starts. Luis Hernandez will still be 23 when the season starts.

I don't want either of them as the Orioles starting SS next year really, but I don't really see why there's anything close to a clear edge to Fahey at all whatsoever.

Well the sample sizes are clearly incredibly small. From what I've seen of the two, and from the error totals from the minors, I think Fahey is a bit better.

Using those same numbers you used, Fahey had a 4 RAR2 and a 101 Rate2 in 2006. Again a small sample size, so I don't think any of those stats prove much other than they're both plus defenders. I'm fine if you think Hernandez is better, I think tis close but I'd give a slight edge to Fahey.

I disagree pretty vehemently if you're gonna argue he's better offensively though.

[TommyD4207]

Well the sample sizes are clearly incredibly small. From what I've seen of the two, and from the error totals from the minors, I think Fahey is a bit better.

Using those same numbers you used, Fahey had a 4 RAR2 and a 101 Rate2 in 2006. Again a small sample size, so I don't think any of those stats prove much other than they're both plus defenders. I'm fine if you think Hernandez is better, I think tis close but I'd give a slight edge to Fahey.

I disagree pretty vehemently if you're gonna argue he's better offensively though.

Error totals are a very, very misleading statistic to use. If player A never gets to 20 balls, they all go for basehits but player B gets to all of them and 18 go for outs and 2 are for errors, well, player B has more errors, but who's the better fielder?

From what I could see, LH clearly had better range so I would say that's a probable case.

The problem with using the 2006 is that he played 53 games in LF. You're using only 17 games, and a lot of those games were late substitutions that got counted as "games." That's evidenced by the fact that he had "17 games" but only 11 PO's. In 23 games, for comparison's sakes, Hernandez had 31 PO's.

As of right now, I would say that I would want neither to start, no questions asked. I would say that Hernandez has a clear edge defensively as a SS and that being that he's only 23 years old and that Fahey's 27, there's clear room for improvement with LH. I would say keep LH down in the minors and who knows, maybe he'll improve a bit. Fahey is a lost cause at this point IMO.

[Sports Guy]

You just never know when to stop. I disagree with what I consider to be your unreasonable and poorly thought-thru priorities about a good-D SS during a year that doesn't matter, and you claim I don't want the O's to be a good franchise again. I guess this is another case of "either you're with us or against us". Great thinking, as always.

The fact that you disagree with me gives me even more confidence that I am right..Thank you for that.

[Sports Guy]

They're going to tell you that you are using the wrong numbers. I don't think so... but they do....

He is using the right numbers but the sample sizes are so small that they are virtually meaningless(talking ML numbers here).

[TommyD4207]

He is using the right numbers but the sample sizes are so small that they are virtually meaningless(talking ML numbers here).

Disagreed. Way to back up your point as well.

When you say that Fahey is not better by a lot, you're relying on...a small sample size?