Orioles sign OF Chris Dickerson to minor league deal

[DrinkinWithFermi]

I think you're under the false impression that when someone says "He has a high BABIP", they mean that his BABIP is way higher than his avg. That isn't what they mean. They mean that his BABIP is higher than his career BABIP. In other words, the relationship between BABIP and average probably has some meaning, but it's not at all the one you're using it for.

I read about this stuff a lot, and I can't remember one instance of an analyst using the difference between the two to draw any type of conclusion. It's not something that people use.

I get what you're saying, but I think I would be more concerned if a player suddenly posted a BABIP 60 points higher than his AVG when he generally posts one about 25 points higher. That seems more indicative of luck to me than him simply exceeding his career average BABIP. I mean both B-Rob and Markakis have had outlier years where they exceeded their career average BABIP by like 25-30 points without dropping off a cliff the next year.

All that said though, I wouldn't be floored if Nate reverted next year- I just don"t think 2 months of slightly higher than normal BABIP is a slam dunk indicator. We shall find out...and fairly soon, thank God.