Mariners still alive in Bedard hunt

[hoosiers]

Just a hypothetical...in 2010 when a similar player to Bedard is on the block, what would the 2010 O's trade offer be for the pitcher?

This should take into consideration that the 2010 O's are now on the cusp of being competitive, but need one more top of the rotation starting pitcher. Wieters (C and cleanup), Rowell (3B and hitting 5th), Reimold (4th OF), Snyder (1B), Liz (closer), Erbe (#4), Spoone(#5), Patton (swingman), and Arrieta (bullpen) are now producing and the O's have continued to draft well. The 2006 and 2007 draft were a success and the two Tylers (Henson, SS, and Kolodny, 3B) are now 2 of our top 3 prospects in our system. Remember you can't use 2009 draft picks in the trade, so the #4 pick in 2008 (our top prospect) can be in the trade package. Also remember we've acquired, a young CF who is starting and hitting 2nd, young SS who has lived up to his potential, and a pitcher (bust) for Bedard.

So who do you trade? Rowell? Spoone? Top prospect?

We'd have to give up a comparable package to what we are asking for - something in the neighborhood of about four top 10 prospects including an overall Top 25 prospect and an overall top 75 prospect both above AA.

There's too much projection required of our lower level prospects, but I'd say that package could be comprised of our 2008 number one pick, Brandon Erbe (assuming a successful two years for him), Zach Britton and our next quality international signing .

[nyjimbo]

Ty: Your analysis shows why some of the posters on this board are unrealistic in the packages we will be getting back for Bedard. Excellent question. How willing will some of these people be in 2010 if teams are asking for our top prospects?

[tywright]

Ty: Your analysis shows why some of the posters on this board are unrealistic in the packages we will be getting back for Bedard. Excellent question. How willing will some of these people be in 2010 if teams are asking for our top prospects?

Exactly... we have to really examine both sides of the equation. The M's, Reds, Dodgers, Cards, etc. are definitely in a tough position. AM knows this and he's banking on one of the GMs giving in to our demands. And yes the posters on here still need to lower their expectations.

[tywright]

When you are looking at this, you also have to look at the competition you are facing. We may be competitive but you can bet the Red Sox and Yankees will still be there and you still have to leap over them. Their resources make this divison very hard to win

Now you have the NL Central, where just about any team besides the Pirates is in the race. But if the Pirates added say 30-40 million in payroll with quality players, they could have a shot as well. In other words the NL Central is very winnable. Same with the NL West and the AL West. They are all weak divisions. The AL East is the toughest division in baseball because of the two juggernauts.

So we may not be willing to gamble as much for a Bedard like player because one player won't make a difference here, whereas Bedard could be enough of a difference to put that one team into the playoffs in a weak division that the M's Reds and Dodgers are in.

Yes but also remember, the Reds have Bailey and Cueto who have ace potential...same goes for Dodgers (Kershaw) and M's (Hernandez). We don't have a legitimate ace in our system and Loewen isn't going to be an ace. Basically what I'm saying is, the Reds, M's and Dodgers need Bedard less than the hypothetical 2010 O's need a Bedard like player. There's no way the O's compete with the MFY and Sox without 2 legitimate aces.

[clarence]

The Rays may be a bigger obstacle in 2010 and beyond than anyone else in the East. I wonder if all the trades in the world are going to allow us to compete with them over the next decade.

[oandb21]

The Rays may be a bigger obstacle in 2010 and beyond than anyone else in the East. I wonder if all the trades in the world are going to allow us to compete with them over the next decade.

Another team that won't be able to keep all there young players, when they make it to the bigs. They won't be much of a problem.

[rolliefingers]

Just a hypothetical...in 2010 when a similar player to Bedard is on the block, what would the 2010 O's trade offer be for the pitcher?

This should take into consideration that the 2010 O's are now on the cusp of being competitive, but need one more top of the rotation starting pitcher. Wieters (C and cleanup), Rowell (3B and hitting 5th), Reimold (4th OF), Snyder (1B), Liz (closer), Erbe (#4), Spoone(#5), Patton (swingman), and Arrieta (bullpen) are now producing and the O's have continued to draft well. The 2006 and 2007 draft were a success and the two Tylers (Henson, SS, and Kolodny, 3B) are now 2 of our top 3 prospects in our system. Remember you can't use 2009 draft picks in the trade, so the #4 pick in 2008 (our top prospect) can be in the trade package. Also remember we've acquired, a young CF who is starting and hitting 2nd, young SS who has lived up to his potential, and a pitcher (bust) for Bedard.

So who do you trade? Rowell? Spoone? Top prospect?

This question requires a nearly absurd amount of speculation and projection, but I would definitely give up top prospects if the 2010 O's were in a position wherein a Bedard-type player could be the difference between good and great.

I think that some of these teams are focusing too much on the talent of their prospects vs. the money that FAs like Kuroda require instead of how much better Bedard is than those FAs. However, they could be right - especially the NL teams - that their league and divisions aren't that good, and therefore they'd rather focus on getting into the playoffs and taking their chances in short series. That's a coherent philosophy, and I can respect it, even though it hurts us.

[BoysofArbutus]

The Rays may be a bigger obstacle in 2010 and beyond than anyone else in the East. I wonder if all the trades in the world are going to allow us to compete with them over the next decade.

Tampa will be another Marlins-esque franchise. Much like the former Expos, a glorified major league farm club for the big time players.

They will continue to deal 25-26 year old budding stars for 20-21 year old potential stars.

[clarence]

Say what you want about how the Marlins have gone about their business, but they do have trophies to show for it.

[hoosiers]

Tampa will be another Marlins-esque franchise. Much like the former Expos, a glorified major league farm club for the big time players.

They will continue to deal 25-26 year old budding stars for 20-21 year old potential stars.

When did they last deal a 25-26 year old budding star?

When someone posts Marlins-esque, I think of a team with two to four year cycles of legitimately competing for a WS and then being very poor team. I'm sure Tampa Bay would be thrilled with that comp and the AL East would be extraordinarily competitive at times.

[tennOsfan]

This question requires a nearly absurd amount of speculation and projection, but I would definitely give up top prospects if the 2010 O's were in a position wherein a Bedard-type player could be the difference between good and great.

I think that some of these teams are focusing too much on the talent of their prospects vs. the money that FAs like Kuroda require instead of how much better Bedard is than those FAs. However, they could be right - especially the NL teams - that their league and divisions aren't that good, and therefore they'd rather focus on getting into the playoffs and taking their chances in short series. That's a coherent philosophy, and I can respect it, even though it hurts us.

Moreover, if you clean out your farm system for a 1-2 year push, you guarantee you'll only have a shot for 1 or 2 years. By keeping a steady stream of young AND CHEAP talent, you're positioned to at least have a fighting chance, year in and year out.

With us chasing the Red Sox and Yankees, it's hard for us to comprehend such a position.

[JTrea81]

Figured I'd post this here because it was getting lost in that Cubs/Brewers discussion...

Another good article from Churchill on prospectinsider.com:

One executive of an NL club recently let it slip that the Mariners are linked in trade talks with every team his own club has been negotiating with, including the Minnesota Twins, Baltimore Orioles and San Francisco Giants.

Clearly the Twins and Orioles are all about Johan Santana and Erik Bedard, but what are the M’s and Giants talking about? Possibly Richie Sexson or Noah Lowry - or both.

“They’re going to make some more moves, I’d bet anything on it,” said the front office rep. “They have too many seeds planted. I don’t think they are willing to part with enough to get Santana, but Bedard is possible and we think the Mariners are our main competition, judging from what we are being told from everyone we talk to on the other side.”

We pretty much know the M’s will make more moves. But will they be smart moves that don’t ignore 2009 and beyond?

“Considering how much action they (Baltimore) are getting on Bedard, if Seattle was going to give up too much, they would have already done so. I think now that they have the kid and three veteran arms, they can avoid that panic trade.”

Sure, they can. But will they?

“From what our guys are saying, it sure appears that Bill and Bob aren’t into trading Jones, let alone all the talk about their arm (Morrow) or any of the veterans,” said a scout from one of the half-dozen clubs the Mariners have had discussions with since the end of the Winter Meetings. “I know Bob from our days with the White Sox and it sounds like he’s rubbing off on Bill and the rest of their decision makers. He loves the younger talents and if he had his way he’d bet on (keeping and developing) them every time over the big contract guys.”

http://prospectinsider.com/2007/12/28/its-far-too-quiet-but/

[olehippi]

Figured I'd post this here because it was getting lost in that Cubs/Brewers discussion...

Another good article from Churchill on prospectinsider.com:

One executive of an NL club recently let it slip that the Mariners are linked in trade talks with every team his own club has been negotiating with, including the Minnesota Twins, Baltimore Orioles and San Francisco Giants.

Clearly the Twins and Orioles are all about Johan Santana and Erik Bedard, but what are the M’s and Giants talking about? Possibly Richie Sexson or Noah Lowry - or both.

“They’re going to make some more moves, I’d bet anything on it,” said the front office rep. “They have too many seeds planted. I don’t think they are willing to part with enough to get Santana, but Bedard is possible and we think the Mariners are our main competition, judging from what we are being told from everyone we talk to on the other side.”

We pretty much know the M’s will make more moves. But will they be smart moves that don’t ignore 2009 and beyond?

“Considering how much action they (Baltimore) are getting on Bedard, if Seattle was going to give up too much, they would have already done so. I think now that they have the kid and three veteran arms, they can avoid that panic trade.”

Sure, they can. But will they?

“From what our guys are saying, it sure appears that Bill and Bob aren’t into trading Jones, let alone all the talk about their arm (Morrow) or any of the veterans,” said a scout from one of the half-dozen clubs the Mariners have had discussions with since the end of the Winter Meetings. “I know Bob from our days with the White Sox and it sounds like he’s rubbing off on Bill and the rest of their decision makers. He loves the younger talents and if he had his way he’d bet on (keeping and developing) them every time over the big contract guys.”

http://prospectinsider.com/2007/12/28/its-far-too-quiet-but/

That last paragraph doesn't sound too promising for the O's. It seems the Reds might be out of the picture for the moment but, I think if another team enters into serious bidding for Bedard that the M's will cave and make the deal MacPhail wants.

Reading through the opinions on the M's board, it seems like many, if not most, M's fans want the team to trade for Bedard, but don't want to give up Jones AND Morrow. One poster made an interesting suggestion: Jones, Clements, Chen, and Morrow for Bedard and Roberts

[Runs2the1Show]

That last paragraph doesn't sound too promising for the O's. It seems the Reds might be out of the picture for the moment but, I think if another team enters into serious bidding for Bedard that the M's will cave and make the deal MacPhail wants.

Reading through the opinions on the M's board, it seems like many, if not most, M's fans want the team to trade for Bedard, but don't want to give up Jones AND Morrow. One poster made an interesting suggestion: Jones, Clements, Chin, and Morrow for Bedard and Roberts

If Roberts for some reason was to be included in the trade, the return would have to be much more. I'm thinking along the lines of including both Betancourt and Sherril to the names you listed. We can't trade Roberts and not get some sort of middle infielder in return.

[olehippi]

If Roberts for some reason was to be included in the trade, the return would have to be much more. I'm thinking along the lines of including both Betancourt and Sherril to the names you listed. We can't trade Roberts and not get some sort of middle infielder in return.

Chen plays 2B, but if Roberts is included, I agree there would have to be more coming back from Seattle.