Jurrjens Silence is Deafening (Deal in doubt?)

[nate22]

Everything I've read said the contract will still be signed. They are just putting him through a very extensive physical.

Yes. I've heard much of the delay is because the O's are still waiting on the Anal Probe machine to be shipped in from Zeta Reticuli.

[sevastras]

Yes. I've heard much of the delay is because the O's are still waiting on the Anal Probe machine to be shipped in from Zeta Reticuli.

[WEAVERMAN]

Stating the obvious, but have I missed anything or is it pretty clear that this signing may be in jeopardy. I think Roch or maybe Encina might have speculated about more tests being done, but I could be completely wrong.

Is this just the normal Angelos way of checking medicals? I hope it's just normal business.

Dr. Angelos, calling Dr. Angelos.

[scOtt]

Didn't Angelos personally decide that Aaron Sele failed his physical because he thought he saw something on a scan?

Yeah. But that was a long time ago. Before he got beat down.

Angelos? Or Sele?

Maybe Joe Saunders is their fallback plan if Jurrjens doesn't pass the physical. Personally, I'd like for us to sign them both. You can never have too much pitching.

But seriously, Joe Saunders has nothing to do with Jurrjens. The Orioles wanted and still want Joe. JJ is a project they're STILL not quite willing to sign on the dotted line for. The two are mutually exclusive.

[SrMeowMeow]

No, I don't think Angelos made the medical diagnosis, but he's the one who decided he wanted to modify the deal with Sele after the doctors found "moderate wear and tear that potentially could worsen by the third or fourth year of Sele's contract." http://articles.baltimoresun.com/2000-01-11/sports/0001110013_1_sele-orioles-gillick

It's interesting to see that Sele then had two excellent seasons, deteriorated pretty significantly in Year 3, and had a very poor Year 4.

2000: 34 starts, 211 IP, 4.51 ERA

2001: 33 starts, 215 IP, 3.60 ERA

2002: 26 starts, 160 IP, 4.89 ERA

2003: 25 starts, 121 IP, 5.77 ERA

Using fWAR, Sele was not worth $29 mm over the four years, though he was worth about $19 mm in the first two seasons.

So, good job Angelos? That's how I read this, anyway.

[mi_oriolesfan]

So, good job Angelos? That's how I read this, anyway.

I agree. If Angelos really did step in here, he sure did the right thing! :thumbsup1:

[Can_of_corn]

So, good job Angelos? That's how I read this, anyway.

I disagree. I think pulling stuff like this is part of the reason why Baltimore because a home for Free Agents that couldn't do better.

[MurphDogg]

I disagree. I think pulling stuff like this is part of the reason why Baltimore because a home for Free Agents that couldn't do better.

Either that or the fact that other team's offer more money. Free agents tend to go to whatever place offers them the most money, ie they couldn't do better elsewhere.

[Frobby]

No, I don't think Angelos made the medical diagnosis, but he's the one who decided he wanted to modify the deal with Sele after the doctors found "moderate wear and tear that potentially could worsen by the third or fourth year of Sele's contract." http://articles.baltimoresun.com/2000-01-11/sports/0001110013_1_sele-orioles-gillick

It's interesting to see that Sele then had two excellent seasons, deteriorated pretty significantly in Year 3, and had a very poor Year 4.

2000: 34 starts, 211 IP, 4.51 ERA

2001: 33 starts, 215 IP, 3.60 ERA

2002: 26 starts, 160 IP, 4.89 ERA

2003: 25 starts, 121 IP, 5.77 ERA

Using fWAR, Sele was not worth $29 mm over the four years, though he was worth about $19 mm in the first two seasons.

So, good job Angelos? That's how I read this, anyway.

I agree. If Angelos really did step in here, he sure did the right thing! :thumbsup1:

I disagree. I think pulling stuff like this is part of the reason why Baltimore because a home for Free Agents that couldn't do better.

The susbtance of the decision not to offer Sele the contract certainly seems defensible, based on the medical diagnosis at the time, and the actual outcome. However, the process was all screwed up. If I recall correctly, the offer was made after the Orioles had already been sent the medical records that ultimately led them to pull their offer off the table. So, if the medical records gave a good reason not to offer Sele a four-year deal, they never should have offered it in the first place, rather than offereing it and then have the owner overrule the baseball people and pull the offer off the table. You can either chalk this up to improper meddling by Angelos in baseball decisions, or very sloppy work by the baseball people (Syd Thrift et al. at the time) that required Angelos to jump in. Either way, it reflected poorly on the organization, even though from a baseball point of view they were better off not doing the Sele deal.

One more postscript: Sele then signed a 2-year, $14.5 mm deal with Seattle, and then a 3-year, $24 mm deal with the Angels. So, he got just about the same amont of money in 2000-03 from the Mariners and Angels as he would have gotten from the Orioles, plus he got an extra year from the Angels thrown in at the end. The Mariners made out like bandits on their two-year deal while the Angels took a terrible bath.

[Can_of_corn]

Either that or the fact that other team's offer more money. Free agents tend to go to whatever place offers them the most money, ie they couldn't do better elsewhere.

I said it I think it was a factor not the only cause. Remember Confederate money? Vlad kept the O's hanging for weeks while praying for a better offer. There have been other cases where the O's offered as much or more and still got turned down.

[LA2]

No, I don't think Angelos made the medical diagnosis, but he's the one who decided he wanted to modify the deal with Sele after the doctors found "moderate wear and tear that potentially could worsen by the third or fourth year of Sele's contract." http://articles.baltimoresun.com/2000-01-11/sports/0001110013_1_sele-orioles-gillick

It's interesting to see that Sele then had two excellent seasons, deteriorated pretty significantly in Year 3, and had a very poor Year 4.

2000: 34 starts, 211 IP, 4.51 ERA

2001: 33 starts, 215 IP, 3.60 ERA

2002: 26 starts, 160 IP, 4.89 ERA

2003: 25 starts, 121 IP, 5.77 ERA

Using fWAR, Sele was not worth $29 mm over the four years, though he was worth about $19 mm in the first two seasons.

I know that W/L record is a poor stat for evaluating pitching performance, but.... in regard to the 2000 season, substitute Sele's 17/10 in 34 starts for Jason Johnson's 1/10 and Scott Erickson's 5/8 in their combined 41 games and 29 starts, and the Orioles would have accumulated 85 wins, only two behind the division-winning Yankees. Throw in the fact that better performance would have probably prevented the wholesale jettisoning of veterans that occurred mid-season--which probably worsened the O's record in the remaining games--and Sele could, conceivably, have single-handedly saved the season and roster. Yes, the Orioles needed eventually to unload their aging position players, but the trades were rash and, outside of Melvin Mora, brought us nothing useful. Mussina, who went to the Yankees after that season, mentioned that the trades were one of several signs to him that the team was a sinking ship. Put Mussina and Sele at the head of the 2001 rotation and the Orioles would definitely not have sunk to a 63 and 98 record dependent on a rotation of Johnson, Jose Mercedes, Josh Towers, Sidney Ponson, Willis Roberts, and Calvin Maduro, supplemented by Pat Hentgen, Rick Bauer, Sean Douglass, Chuck McElroy, etc.

I'm not saying that would have made Sele's contract a good one in the end, but it could have helped to set a vastly different, much better course for the team.

[Frobby]

I said it I think it was a factor not the only cause. Remember Confederate money? Vlad kept the O's hanging for weeks while praying for a better offer. There have been other cases where the O's offered as much or more and still got turned down.

I don't think it's even debatable that free agents were avoiding Baltimore for a number of years, unless they simply couldn't get similar money anywhere else. I think we're past that now. I have no problem with the O's studying Jurjjens' medical records to their heart's content, since it was always clear that his deal was contingent on a physical, etc.

[NCRaven]

No, I don't think Angelos made the medical diagnosis, but he's the one who decided he wanted to modify the deal with Sele after the doctors found "moderate wear and tear that potentially could worsen by the third or fourth year of Sele's contract." http://articles.baltimoresun.com/2000-01-11/sports/0001110013_1_sele-orioles-gillick

It's interesting to see that Sele then had two excellent seasons, deteriorated pretty significantly in Year 3, and had a very poor Year 4.

2000: 34 starts, 211 IP, 4.51 ERA

2001: 33 starts, 215 IP, 3.60 ERA

2002: 26 starts, 160 IP, 4.89 ERA

2003: 25 starts, 121 IP, 5.77 ERA

Using fWAR, Sele was not worth $29 mm over the four years, though he was worth about $19 mm in the first two seasons.

Thank you. It is amazing how total BS, over time, becomes gospel on the internet! The Orioles doctors were dead on on this deal and as an owner spending a pretty significant amount on that deal, Angelos was right to be concerned. He's screwed up tons over the years, but he was not wrong on Sele.

Edit: I must also agree with the additional point that, even if he was right on the merits, the process by which the team reached that decision was seriously flawed and did not reflect well on the team. I doubt it has any impact at all on our current situation and negotiations with free agents or our own players.

[Frobby]

I know that W/L record is a poor stat for evaluating pitching performance, but.... in regard to the 2000 season, substitute Sele's 17/10 in 34 starts for Jason Johnson's 1/10 and Scott Erickson's 5/8 in their combined 41 games and 29 starts, and the Orioles would have accumulated 85 wins, only two behind the division-winning Yankees. Throw in the fact that such an improved performance would have probably prevented the wholesale jettisoning of veterans that occurred mid-season--which probably worsened the O's performance in the remaining games--and Sele could, conceivably, have single-handedly saved the season and roster. Yes, the Orioles needed eventually to unload their aging position players, but the trades were rash and, outside of Melvin Mora, brought us nothing useful. Mussina, who went to the Yankees after that season, mentioned that the trades were one of several signs to him that the team was a sinking ship. Put Mussina and Sele at the head of the 2001 rotation and the Orioles would definitely not have sunk to a 63 and 98 record dependent on a rotation of Johnson, Jose Mercedes, Josh Towers, Sidney Ponson, Willis Roberts, and Calvin Maduro, supplemented by Pat Hentgen, Rick Bauer, Sean Douglass, Chuck McElroy, etc.

I'm not saying that would have made Sele's contract a good one in the end, but it could have helped to set a vastly different, much better course for the team.

You are assuming an awful lot here. Sele pitched for a Seattle team that scored 907 runs that season, compared to the 794 the Orioles scored. Most likely, he'd have been a .500ish pitcher for the Orioles at best. And, he probably wouldn't have supplanted Johnson (7.02 ERA) or Erickson (7.87 ERA) in the rotation. More likely, the O's would not have signed Pat Rapp (9-12, 5.90 ERA), who they signed 18 days after Sele signed with Seattle.

You look at that 2000 team and it was just very poorly constructed. The average age of the position players was 32.2 -- and it's only that low because of the trades made in late July. Baines was 41, Cal was 39, Brady and Will Clark were 36, Surhoff was 35, Bordick and Conine were 34, Belle was 33 with a degenerative hip condition. Most of those guys were still decent players, but let's face it, the Orioles had no future at that point in time.

[DrungoHazewood]

Thank you. It is amazing how total BS, over time, becomes gospel on the internet! The Orioles doctors were dead on on this deal and as an owner spending a pretty significant amount on that deal, Angelos was right to be concerned. He's screwed up tons over the years, but he was not wrong on Sele.

I think the Orioles were stupid for having an interest in Sele to begin with. But saying that his performance in 2000-03 vindicated Angelos is flat-out wrong. From 1996-99 Sele had a 100 ERA+ in 752 innings. From 2000-03 he had a 97 ERA+ in 708 innings. He was, for all intents and purposes, exactly the same pitcher on aggregate as he was over the preceding four years. He pitched almost exactly as well as you could have expected. If the Orioles were going to sign him on the basis of him being the pitcher he'd been over then-recent history, well... that's almost exactly what he ended up being.

All Angelos avoided was a near-repeat of the performance that piqued their interest to begin with.