Jurrjens Silence is Deafening (Deal in doubt?)

[Il BuonO]

The susbtance of the decision not to offer Sele the contract certainly seems defensible, based on the medical diagnosis at the time, and the actual outcome. However, the process was all screwed up. If I recall correctly, the offer was made after the Orioles had already been sent the medical records that ultimately led them to pull their offer off the table. So, if the medical records gave a good reason not to offer Sele a four-year deal, they never should have offered it in the first place, rather than offereing it and then have the owner overrule the baseball people and pull the offer off the table. You can either chalk this up to improper meddling by Angelos in baseball decisions, or very sloppy work by the baseball people (Syd Thrift et al. at the time) that required Angelos to jump in. Either way, it reflected poorly on the organization, even though from a baseball point of view they were better off not doing the Sele deal.

One more postscript: Sele then signed a 2-year, $14.5 mm deal with Seattle, and then a 3-year, $24 mm deal with the Angels. So, he got just about the same amont of money in 2000-03 from the Mariners and Angels as he would have gotten from the Orioles, plus he got an extra year from the Angels thrown in at the end. The Mariners made out like bandits on their two-year deal while the Angels took a terrible bath.

This is correct. Angelos often meddled in the business of baseball early on. I would add that it should have never reached PA. Someone made a mistake by ever making an offer in the first place. So, while there were times when he didn't let his baseball people run the team, this is one time he was right to step in.

Yes, the organization looked bad and I'm sure there were some repercussions because of it, but today even though it may seem like PA's heavy hand is driving the Jurrjens situation I'm sure DD has it well in hand.

[MurphDogg]

So, while there were times when he didn't let his baseball people run the team, this is one time he was right to step in.

Not to mention the '96 trade deadline where Angelos vetoed trades that would have hurt our chances of winning the wild card. Of course, we didn't win the World Series that year and his decision cemented his opinion that sometimes he was smarter than his baseball people, so it definitely did more harm than good overall.

[epic]

?I hope so, the only thing I can do is keep working and getting ready,? Jurrjens said by phone Wednesday. ?We?re still trying to discuss some small stuff on the contract. ? We are getting close, just some small details we want to make sure we go through before we sign.?

http://www.baltimoresun.com/sports/orioles/blog/bal-orioles-and-jair-jurrjens-still-in-waiting-game-20130206,0,1979120.story

I'm optimistic this will get done. Sounds like Jurrjens is too.

[Number5]

I think the Orioles were stupid for having an interest in Sele to begin with. But saying that his performance in 2000-03 vindicated Angelos is flat-out wrong. From 1996-99 Sele had a 100 ERA+ in 752 innings. From 2000-03 he had a 97 ERA+ in 708 innings. He was, for all intents and purposes, exactly the same pitcher on aggregate as he was over the preceding four years. He pitched almost exactly as well as you could have expected. If the Orioles were going to sign him on the basis of him being the pitcher he'd been over then-recent history, well... that's almost exactly what he ended up being.

All Angelos avoided was a near-repeat of the performance that piqued their interest to begin with.

I would disagree with you on this point. To me, there is a difference between a 97 ERA+ and a 100 ERA+, especially when compared over a large sample size like four years each. Additionally, there is clearly a significant difference in WAR between those two 4-year groupings: 6.7 to 3.5. His K/9 dropped precipitously, as well, in the 2000-2003 period from the 1996-1999 period. He also had a 6% reduction in innings pitched. 11 innings less in a given year may not seem like all that much, but an average of 11 innings per year for four years makes it something worth noting, IMO. No, Sele was not the same pitcher, IMO, in the four years 2000-2003 that he was in the four years 1996-1999 by any measure that I can see.

Now, in my mind, none of that really matters when considering whether the decision to void the contract was a good one or not. That decision must occur prior to the results of the next four years, obviously, and therefore cannot be fairly looked at in hindsight. As FRobby pointed out, it appears that perhaps the mistake was made by Thrift in offering the contract in the first place, when the medical issues were known to exist. The Orioles were made to look bad, IMO, by offering the contract when they already had the medical information, only to then have the owner nix the deal based on that same information.

[DrungoHazewood]

I would disagree with you on this point. To me, there is a difference between a 97 ERA+ and a 100 ERA+, especially when compared over a large sample size like four years each. Additionally, there is clearly a significant difference in WAR between those two 4-year groupings: 6.7 to 3.5. His K/9 dropped precipitously, as well, in the 2000-2003 period from the 1996-1999 period.

You make good points about peripherals and value dropping, but there really is no substantive difference between a 97 and a 100 ERA+. I'm sure you could find thousands of cases where a 97 ERA+ guy had better secondary numbers than the 100 ERA+ guy, or a wide disparity in earned/unearned runs that favored the lower ERA+ pitcher. Both pitchers are well within the "roughly league average" bin, and there's no reason to pretend we have more fidelity in the data.

[Number5]

You make good points about peripherals and value dropping, but there really is no substantive difference between a 97 and a 100 ERA+. I'm sure you could find thousands of cases where a 97 ERA+ guy had better secondary numbers than the 100 ERA+ guy, or a wide disparity in earned/unearned runs that favored the lower ERA+ pitcher. Both pitchers are well within the "roughly league average" bin, and there's no reason to pretend we have more fidelity in the data.

In any given year, I would agree with you. As the sample size grows, however, I think that the difference becomes more meaningful. We are talking about four year sample sizes here. The peripherals and WAR differences bear this out.

[SilentJames]

I think part of the issue the O's have had with free agents is directly attributable to what happened with Sele.

But didn't Angelos turn out to be kinda right with Sele?

[Can_of_corn]

But didn't Angelos turn out to be kinda right with Sele?

That would be irrelevant with how other Free Agents view the Orioles.

[weams]

That would be irrelevant with how other Free Agents view the Orioles.

Free Agents view the Orioles as a premier destination. If the Orioles even bid. And have the top money. I suspect it has turned around to being and Oriole disdain for high priced FAs and no longer the other way around.

[Rene88]

I am assuming no updates? Big thread on Sele though, wow. Perhaps we are working him out too?

[scOtt]

I know that W/L record is a poor stat for evaluating pitching performance, but.... in regard to the 2000 season, substitute Sele's 17/10 in 34 starts for Jason Johnson's 1/10 and Scott Erickson's 5/8 in their combined 41 games and 29 starts, and the Orioles would have accumulated 85 wins, only two behind the division-winning Yankees. Throw in the fact that better performance would have probably prevented the wholesale jettisoning of veterans that occurred mid-season--which probably worsened the O's record in the remaining games--and Sele could, conceivably, have single-handedly saved the season and roster. Yes, the Orioles needed eventually to unload their aging position players, but the trades were rash and, outside of Melvin Mora, brought us nothing useful. Mussina, who went to the Yankees after that season, mentioned that the trades were one of several signs to him that the team was a sinking ship. Put Mussina and Sele at the head of the 2001 rotation and the Orioles would definitely not have sunk to a 63 and 98 record dependent on a rotation of Johnson, Jose Mercedes, Josh Towers, Sidney Ponson, Willis Roberts, and Calvin Maduro, supplemented by Pat Hentgen, Rick Bauer, Sean Douglass, Chuck McElroy, etc.

I'm not saying that would have made Sele's contract a good one in the end, but it could have helped to set a vastly different, much better course for the team.

I should neg rep just for reminding me of all those names.

[SrMeowMeow]

In any given year, I would agree with you. As the sample size grows, however, I think that the difference becomes more meaningful. We are talking about four year sample sizes here. The peripherals and WAR differences bear this out.

I agree that WAR and peripherals are a better measure of Sele's value than ERA+, but the difference between a 97 and a 100 ERA+ (over a hypothetical infinite and perfect sample) is going to be a whopping drop of...3%. Not really meaningful.

[isestrex]

I should neg rep just for reminding me of all those names.

I was psyched when we signed 2 time world series champion and Cy Young winner Pat Hentgen.

...I was a very ignorant fan in those days <a href="http://s1106.beta.photobucket.com/user/isestrex/media/Emoticons/eusa_shifty.gif.html" target="_blank"><img src="http://i1106.photobucket.com/albums/h367/isestrex/Emoticons/eusa_shifty.gif" border="0" alt=" photo eusa_shifty.gif"/></a>

[Il BuonO]

I was psyched when we signed 2 time world series champion and Cy Young winner Pat Hentgen.

...I was a very ignorant fan in those days

I'd still be excited if we signed a two time world series champ and CY winner.

[PaulFolk]

Eduardo Encina of the Sun thinks the Jurrjens deal could fall through:

As for Jurrjens, it is becoming increasingly unclear whether the one-year deal between him and the Orioles will come to fruition. Vetting his physical has become a week-long process and it doesn’t seem like it’s heading in a positive direction.

The Orioles have long had concerns about Jurrjens’ health, especially the strength of his right knee. That dates back to last offseason, when the team tested the trade waters with the Braves in a possible deal involving Adam Jones. And that was before the velocity on his fastball continued to diminish and he pitched to a 6.89 ERA last season. They were concerned then, and they’re concerned now.

http://www.baltimoresun.com/sports/orioles/blog/bal-friday-morning-orioles-observations-saunders-jurrjens-arbitration-20130208,0,6044638.story