Jump to content

AL East Predictions


Rene88

Recommended Posts

Does anyone really know what will happen? Yankees could be beset by injuries.Do the O's play alot of close games and win? Do the Blue Jays become the Marlins of last year? Signed alot of name free agents but Marlins self destructed. Does Tampa pitching keep them on top? Do the Red Sox make a comeback with a new attitude and dugout cancer clearing. Have a couple of former MVP candidates. I don't think anyone honestly picked the O's to finish one game behind the Yanks.
How is this a question compared to the others. It will keep them at least near the top. They are head and shoulders above the other teams in terms of pitching. In fact if they had the nerve they could put togeteher a package to get Stanton, and still have the strongest SP in the AL East. Imagine Stanton hitting behind Longoria.
Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Replies 91
  • Created
  • Last Reply
The AL East turns on who has the best SP. Right now that's TB. But any one of the MFY, TOR, BAL. or BOS, can step up or fall by the wayside depending on the health and effectiveness of their SP quetion marks.

Completely agree with this.

I like the O's because they have the most depth to comensate for their question marks.

I would agree they have a lot of bodies. I don't know how much depth they have.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

A lot has been made of the O's record in one-run games, but isn't everybody kinda double counting here. I believe that our record in regulation was 19 and 7 in one-run games and 10 and 2 in extra inning one-run games. I believe that this is more a result of Duq and Buck's Norfolk-Balt. express and Buck's masterful day-to-day management of the bullpen than the non-quantifiable excuse that the pundits ( and some OHers) give-LUCK. I believe that Duq know this and will do their best to repeat a winning bullpen management strategy.IMHO

So if Buck has a way to win one-run games at a historically unprecedented rate, why didn't he use it prior to 2012? His career one-run record up to last year was under .500, IIRC.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Completely agree with this.

I would agree they have a lot of bodies. I don't know how much depth they have.

Name the next 6 SP in line for the other AL East teams. How do they match up with Matusz, Arrieta, Johnson, Wada, Jurrjens, McFarland, and Hunter(assuming Britton is the #5)?
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Of course... how could we be so stupid ;)

It is understandable that this fan base has an inferiority complex. We have been dumped on by poor management for 15+ years. What has happened, imho, is that we lucked into competent management who lucked into a solid base that if coached well, will blossom. I've played and coached this game for over 40 years. While I understand the theory behind some of the advanced metrics, many of those using those tools are clueless about what goes on for 9 months, in the dugout. What we have is a core of young players, entering their prime who like each other. Not only do they like each other, they like their manager. Not only do they like their manager, they like the city and they like the stadium they play in.

I'm telling you people, this is a perfect storm. DD is smart enough to leave well enough alone. Given an equality of injuries, I predict a dominant performance by the O's.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Additions: Danny Valencia, Alexi Casilla, Jair Jurrjens.

Subtractions: Mark Reynolds, Robert Andino, Joe Saunders, Jim Thome, Endy Chavez, Randy Wolf, Nick Johnson, Bill Hall.

A full season of Manny Machado lends promise. Maybe one of the starting pitchers -- Chris Tillman? -- breaks out. Maybe Brian Roberts is healthy enough to contribute. Maybe Dylan Bundy makes an impact similar to Machado's in 2012. But there aren't enough solid reasons to expect another 90-win season here.

A full season of Nolan Reimold, Nate McLouth, Jason Hammel and Miguel Gonazalez also lends promise. I don't see that any rational Orioles fan is going into 2013 "expecting" another 90-win season. But it's certainly not too much to realistically hope for. At least you can have a conversation about it and not be mocked -- for the first time in about 7-8 years. (I'd argue that it would have been realistic to "hope" for 90ish wins in 2004-05, though obviously those teams fell woefully short).

Link to comment
Share on other sites

We wanted to trade for Billy Butler as a MOO bat. If Nolan Reimold can stay healthy for a full season I don't think it is a reach to think he can put up aButlers career average .830 OPS with 20 HR as a DH, with the added bonus of actually being able to play LF and RF to boot. He won't hit for as much average or OBP, but he will hit for more power and his OBP should be decent. If that were to happen an 86 W team might contend for the WC. And there are other realistic posibilities for improved production from both position players and SP. IMO the chances of some players stepping up is greater than the chances of players regressing, barring injury.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

While I understand the theory behind some of the advanced metrics, many of those using those tools are clueless about what goes on for 9 months, in the dugout. What we have is a core of young players, entering their prime who like each other. Not only do they like each other, they like their manager. Not only do they like their manager, they like the city and they like the stadium they play in.

I think you would have to admit that many teams like their manager and teammates and where they are and win 72 games. The Orioles liked Buck, liked their teammates, liked Baltimore, and in 2011 they won 69 games.

And yes, any metric is going to be agnostic on what happens in the dugout for nine months. And yet past performance and general trends are pretty good at informing us about what is going to happen. Not perfect, obviously. There are exceptions. And that's what we're rooting for - another big exception.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

TB

O's

Jays

Yanks

Sox

I think it's a three team race in the AL East all season. The Rays, Jays and O's are the class of the division in my opinion. Baseball is again a young mans sport and those three teams have the youngest talent in the division. Should be a fun season.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Name the next 6 SP in line for the other AL East teams. How do they match up with Matusz, Arrieta, Johnson, Wada, Jurrjens, McFarland, and Hunter(assuming Britton is the #5)?

I can't speak to what the other AL East teams have in terms of their next 6 guys. What I would say is that I still think we have question marks in our first 5 let alone the guys you list. There is not one starting pitcher that I would be willing to bet has a sub 4.00 ERA this year. It doesn't mean they won't it just means that I have questions. I am hopeful because I am a fan but I am not willing to say we have "depth" based on one year of success for some of our rotation and a list of guys who either have struggled mightily recently or are coming off of injury.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I can't speak to what the other AL East teams have in terms of their next 6 guys. What I would say is that I still think we have question marks in our first 5 let alone the guys you list. There is not one starting pitcher that I would be willing to bet has a sub 4.00 ERA this year. It doesn't mean they won't it just means that I have questions. I am hopeful because I am a fan but I am not willing to say we have "depth" based on one year of success for some of our rotation and a list of guys who either have struggled mightily recently or are coming off of injury.

The Orioles might have the smallest spread in baseball between the quality of their #1 through #8 starters. The issue is that I think the mean value of those eight starters might be 5th in the AL East.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The Orioles might have the smallest spread in baseball between the quality of their #1 through #8 starters. The issue is that I think the mean value of those eight starters might be 5th in the AL East.

Exactly! So it goes to the question of, is it depth if they all suck? Probably not. I am not taking a position whether they suck or not just saying there is enough uncertainty to keep me from declaring the team has depth.

I do think there is a possibility that the pitching is very good, I just wouldn't bet my paycheck on it. That isn't a knock on anyone, just that I am not convinced. If Hammel, Chen, Gonzalez, and Tillman repeat their 2012 season then I will be much more confident next year.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I can't speak to what the other AL East teams have in terms of their next 6 guys. What I would say is that I still think we have question marks in our first 5 let alone the guys you list. There is not one starting pitcher that I would be willing to bet has a sub 4.00 ERA this year. It doesn't mean they won't it just means that I have questions. I am hopeful because I am a fan but I am not willing to say we have "depth" based on one year of success for some of our rotation and a list of guys who either have struggled mightily recently or are coming off of injury.
I'm not sure there is any pitcher in the MFY rotation I'd be willing to bet has a sub 4.00 ERA. Pitching is just too iffy. There are plenty of question marks on all the AL East rotations except TB IMO. My point is if one of the Yankee question marks struggles, how long are they going to have to stick with him until they bring up someone else? And who is that likely to be? I think we have 4 or 5 guys who can be brought up fairly quickly and do a decent job for 8-10 starts, if some one struggles or goes on the DL. Who replaces CC if he goes down?
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.


  • Posts

    • Yeah, basically this, that Westburg's underlying numbers (EV, barrel %, xwOBA) seem to point at this being pretty real, or at least that there's nothing 'undeserved / lucky' about this hot streak, if it's just that. 
    • The problem with a Cowser/Kjerstad/Stowers/Bradfield outfield roster is there are no right handers to handle LHP. I don't think and completely left handed outfield is the destination for an organization the values versatility.
    • Looks maybe concussion related. 
    • How can you not be romantic about baseball? This seems slightly poetic. I enjoyed reading, and correlated your experience in the stands back to what I watch in Game 1 on MASN.  It was also pretty cool to hear Jim Palmer give you a shout out in Game 2 of the series on Live TV.
    • I am not worried.  It just doesn’t remotely meet the eye test.  He has been great in the field . I can think of at least 3 outstanding plays he has made and not any that I thought he should have gotten but didn’t. Meanwhile Holliday is 3 OAA and I can’t think of an outstanding play and can think of a number I thought he should have made. 
    • Nicely stated Roy. Every since I was 9 years old and saw the O's vs. the Tokyo Giants in Tokyo in 1971, I've been infected with the Orange/Black virus. There is no cure and I don't want one. You and I sat at the lunch table with Jim Palmer at the 1970 World Series Champs reunion, and its still one of my enduring baseball memories. You said I looked like Carlton Fisk! I was at all 3 games in this Angels series, right behind the O's dugout. I got to see all our boys, and just simply love to watch this team play. And in true baseball fashion, the one game on paper we should have dominated (GRod vs. 8+ ERA Channing), we end up down 7-0 and lose. But watching Gunnar's homers, his electric triple, and he made a fantastic play today on a ball that went under Westburg's glove, Adley do Adley things, Cowser, holy crap. Kimbrel v. Trout with bases loaded, bottom of 9th, 2 outs, down by 2? That was fun. Next game Trout bats leadoff and torches a GRod fastball for a homer to the opposite field.  An observation.... If you didn't know anything about the team, and you only watched game 1 batting practice, you'd think Cowser and O'Hearn were the studs of the team. Mountcastle was taking BP with the reserves and he put on a show as well.  Home after 3 straight days watching this O's team, so jealous of the Balt fans in Balt that get to see the team with regularity. It's a special bunch.
  • Popular Contributors

×
×
  • Create New...