Jump to content

Pecota 2013


Recommended Posts

  • Replies 72
  • Created
  • Last Reply

I wouldnt be suprised to see all 5 teams between 80-87 wins. No team is that great this year and I could see one injury derailing any team. If any the teams has one of their star players gets hurt for more than 90 games, I could see their respective teams falling hard.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I was about to post a fairly heavily redacted list of O's PECOTAs, but seeing this thread I'll hold off.

My first observation here was the level of regression PECOTA sees in the pen. They're projecting O'Day with a 3.47 ERA, Johnson with a 3.77, and nobody else under 4.00. So they're taking the pen that led the universe in WPA, had their top five guys with ERAs under 2.65, and saying they'll end up with an ERA well over 4.00.

Yea, if that happens 74 wins might be optimistic.

Not only that, but they're also projecting every member of the rotation to be below average, too. Bundy below replacement. Hammel giving back just about everything he gained last year. And Tillman regressing past his 2012 FIP/SIERA to something nearer his career ERA.

I think Gordo said last week Zips should be our worst-case scenario. No, I think PECOTA takes that title and runs with it. And you guys thought I was pessimistic.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I'm so sick of projections. I wish we could just play ball. I don't see the justification for any projection that has Boston ahead of Toronto.

I doesn't. It has the Red Sox essentially even with the Rays and Blue Jays. I'm sure they'd tell you that early February projections separated by one win are really no separation at all, and both teams are in a +/- five win bin.

I'm not a fan of their pen projections, but in the rotation the only real difference between the O's and Sox is that they think both Lester and Hammel will revert towards career averages (obviously in different directions).

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just for frame of reference, does anyone have their 2012 projections handy?

Not sure why you'd ask... It obvious the Orioles way over performed last year. You could go back the last ten years and see the similar projections that were pretty close. How far off they were last year has little significance or guaranteed success to this year. Our GM stated that he wanted a MOO bat and another rotation arm. They accomplished neither. That tells me that DD saw shortcomings and attempted to fill in the off season. The cost of whatever he thought he could get done. I'd expect the projections to be low...the same as I expect the Blue Jays to be high. Neither is a guarantee of success.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Did anyone really think that the various projection systems were going to say that a team that won in the ways the O's won last year was going to hold onto most of its gains?

What would you think of a system that said some non-Orioles team was going to repeat a +13 WPA from the pen and outplaying their Pythag by 11 games? We'd mock them mercilessly.

Let's not act like projection of a big regression is a surprise. It was a given.

Link to comment
Share on other sites


This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Posts

    • I'll be surprised if it's not that trio with either Kremer or Gibson as the 4th starter if the Orioles need one during the playoffs. It's terrible Means was gone for nearly 1.5 years, but the plus side is his arm should be fresh.
    • If the Orioles can't get a good return and Norby doesn't win a job next spring, the odds may go up that he takes over in left in 2025 if the Orioles aren't going to pay both Hays and Mullins, or maybe neither.
    • 4 Ks and missed 6 bats. I missed the game tonight and it looks like he pitched well and he is certainly 3rd in the pecking order right now (which speaks to the staff more than anything) but I don’t have confidence in him vs top offenses if he can’t miss bats and strike guys out.
    • I think Kremer will be in the pen for the playoffs.   I think he can be a weapon out of the bullpen for us this year. Next year I imagine he will pitch in the rotation and continue to improve.  I see this guy pitching in MLB for a long time.  He has the drive and desire to be great.  He improves and adapts as he goes along.     I think they need to try and add and impact starter in the off-seasons and push competition.  I’d like to see two impact relief arms as well.     I’m not in the “the sky is falling” camp right now, but the last few weeks have shown the importance of high quality depth.  You can’t have too much talent. 
    • I bought tickets from the Birdland members presale. My wife and I have a 13-game plan. When it said you could only buy one set of tickets per series, I assumed that meant one pair for the Wild Card Series, one for the ALDS, and one for the ALCS. But I'm seeing people online say that they bought tickets for two games in the ALDS and one for the ALCS. I didn't realize that I could distribute my three games any way I wanted. Now I'm annoyed that I wasted tickets on two series that might not happen at all.
    • The Orioles have one more loss at home than on the road. So I would say about the same. The Rays on the other hand are .663 at home (53-27) vs. .553 on the road (42-34). The Orioles have Bradish and GRod going against the Nationals, at home, after a day off. They should win those games. If they win tomorrow, too, the deed would be nearly done by Wed. Winning tomorrow is not essential, they would be still in good shape with a loss. But it would help to avoid going deep into the week to resolve this.
  • Popular Contributors

  • Create New...