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Pecota 2013

jjdman

By jjdman
in Orioles Talk

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kidrock Major Leaguer Cup of Coffee

kidrock

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I wouldnt be suprised to see all 5 teams between 80-87 wins. No team is that great this year and I could see one injury derailing any team. If any the teams has one of their star players gets hurt for more than 90 games, I could see their respective teams falling hard.

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DrungoHazewood Hangout Grand Counsel

DrungoHazewood

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I was about to post a fairly heavily redacted list of O's PECOTAs, but seeing this thread I'll hold off.

My first observation here was the level of regression PECOTA sees in the pen. They're projecting O'Day with a 3.47 ERA, Johnson with a 3.77, and nobody else under 4.00. So they're taking the pen that led the universe in WPA, had their top five guys with ERAs under 2.65, and saying they'll end up with an ERA well over 4.00.

Yea, if that happens 74 wins might be optimistic.

Not only that, but they're also projecting every member of the rotation to be below average, too. Bundy below replacement. Hammel giving back just about everything he gained last year. And Tillman regressing past his 2012 FIP/SIERA to something nearer his career ERA.

I think Gordo said last week Zips should be our worst-case scenario. No, I think PECOTA takes that title and runs with it. And you guys thought I was pessimistic.

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DrungoHazewood Hangout Grand Counsel

DrungoHazewood

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I'm so sick of projections. I wish we could just play ball. I don't see the justification for any projection that has Boston ahead of Toronto.

I doesn't. It has the Red Sox essentially even with the Rays and Blue Jays. I'm sure they'd tell you that early February projections separated by one win are really no separation at all, and both teams are in a +/- five win bin.

I'm not a fan of their pen projections, but in the rotation the only real difference between the O's and Sox is that they think both Lester and Hammel will revert towards career averages (obviously in different directions).

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Roll Tide Hangout Grand Counsel

Roll Tide

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Just for frame of reference, does anyone have their 2012 projections handy?

Not sure why you'd ask... It obvious the Orioles way over performed last year. You could go back the last ten years and see the similar projections that were pretty close. How far off they were last year has little significance or guaranteed success to this year. Our GM stated that he wanted a MOO bat and another rotation arm. They accomplished neither. That tells me that DD saw shortcomings and attempted to fill in the off season. The cost of whatever he thought he could get done. I'd expect the projections to be low...the same as I expect the Blue Jays to be high. Neither is a guarantee of success.

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DrungoHazewood Hangout Grand Counsel

DrungoHazewood

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Did anyone really think that the various projection systems were going to say that a team that won in the ways the O's won last year was going to hold onto most of its gains?

What would you think of a system that said some non-Orioles team was going to repeat a +13 WPA from the pen and outplaying their Pythag by 11 games? We'd mock them mercilessly.

Let's not act like projection of a big regression is a surprise. It was a given.

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  • Posts

    • maybenxtyr
      Hyde Hot Seat

      By maybenxtyr · Posted

      I think there's something else beyond the injuries,  but a person would have to be naive to think this lineup wouldn't be drastically different with even 2 of the RH hitters on that list. 
    • e16bball
      Hyde Hot Seat

      By e16bball · Posted

      Also, our Bad Manager had Mullins bunt with men on 1st and 2nd and nobody out precisely…two games ago, on Sunday in Detroit. Fouled off the first two, then flied out rather meekly to center field (advancing the runners anyway on nice tag-ups by Soto and Henderson). But then Santander popped up and Kjerstad hit a weak tapper back to the pitcher, so we went empty. Gave up an out with one of our hottest hitters — just to set up two dudes who couldn’t come through. I didn’t see Hyde getting too much praise as a Good Manager for doing that on Sunday. If he’d gone right back to the same strategy that failed a couple days ago in the exact same situation, then we’d be telling him “job well done” this time? Only if it worked, I’d wager…
    • NashLumber
      Hyde Hot Seat

      By NashLumber · Posted

      Different era obviously, but Rochester AAA manager Earl Weaver replaced O's skipper Hank Bauer in '68, just a year and a half after Bauer won the World Series. 
    • Safelykept
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      By Safelykept · Posted

      A good manager would have instructed him to bunt Well not for nothing, but I would like 100 dollars for every time a Good Manager did not bunt with first and second with nobody out. Now if the SF pitcher was LH, I would be onboard. If they were down by 1, maybe. Why would you not let Mullins hit there?
    • e16bball
      The New Guys

      By e16bball · Posted

      Putting aside the issue of “not counting” stats that don’t fit the argument, I’m curious who he would have had hit there. What were the other options? Eloy Jimenez (1 for his last 23) Coby Mayo (3 for 37 with 21 Ks as a pro) Jackson Holliday (0 for last 22 vs LHPs  with 12 Ks) Livan Soto (~.600 career AAA OPS vs LHPs)   Not saying Slater was some slam dunk pick, but I honestly don’t really even understand how folks can criticize Hyde for those types of decisions anymore. Every lever he has available to pull is clearly marked *WRONG* in flashing red lights. 
    • waroriole
      Hyde Hot Seat

      By waroriole · Posted

      Is it really the injuries?  
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      By terpoh · Posted

      People born in 1984 are 40 now and have never seen the O’s get past the ALCS

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