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Pecota 2013


jjdman

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I wouldnt be suprised to see all 5 teams between 80-87 wins. No team is that great this year and I could see one injury derailing any team. If any the teams has one of their star players gets hurt for more than 90 games, I could see their respective teams falling hard.

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I was about to post a fairly heavily redacted list of O's PECOTAs, but seeing this thread I'll hold off.

My first observation here was the level of regression PECOTA sees in the pen. They're projecting O'Day with a 3.47 ERA, Johnson with a 3.77, and nobody else under 4.00. So they're taking the pen that led the universe in WPA, had their top five guys with ERAs under 2.65, and saying they'll end up with an ERA well over 4.00.

Yea, if that happens 74 wins might be optimistic.

Not only that, but they're also projecting every member of the rotation to be below average, too. Bundy below replacement. Hammel giving back just about everything he gained last year. And Tillman regressing past his 2012 FIP/SIERA to something nearer his career ERA.

I think Gordo said last week Zips should be our worst-case scenario. No, I think PECOTA takes that title and runs with it. And you guys thought I was pessimistic.

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I'm so sick of projections. I wish we could just play ball. I don't see the justification for any projection that has Boston ahead of Toronto.

I doesn't. It has the Red Sox essentially even with the Rays and Blue Jays. I'm sure they'd tell you that early February projections separated by one win are really no separation at all, and both teams are in a +/- five win bin.

I'm not a fan of their pen projections, but in the rotation the only real difference between the O's and Sox is that they think both Lester and Hammel will revert towards career averages (obviously in different directions).

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Just for frame of reference, does anyone have their 2012 projections handy?

Not sure why you'd ask... It obvious the Orioles way over performed last year. You could go back the last ten years and see the similar projections that were pretty close. How far off they were last year has little significance or guaranteed success to this year. Our GM stated that he wanted a MOO bat and another rotation arm. They accomplished neither. That tells me that DD saw shortcomings and attempted to fill in the off season. The cost of whatever he thought he could get done. I'd expect the projections to be low...the same as I expect the Blue Jays to be high. Neither is a guarantee of success.

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Did anyone really think that the various projection systems were going to say that a team that won in the ways the O's won last year was going to hold onto most of its gains?

What would you think of a system that said some non-Orioles team was going to repeat a +13 WPA from the pen and outplaying their Pythag by 11 games? We'd mock them mercilessly.

Let's not act like projection of a big regression is a surprise. It was a given.

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