Bob Haynie: Cautiously Optimistic about 2013

[Crazysilver03]

What does my career have to do with anything? Cheap shot man. Really cheap, but predictable.

So let me get this right: if I say PA is a penny-pinching tightwad, I'm a troll and I don't know anything about the business and I am repeating what we already know.

If you say it, then you're proving you know more than me and that I am living in a fantasy world for wanting to make improvements within the confines of PAs wallet.

Right.

MSK

Are you going to address what these "steps backward this team made?"

[MemorialStadKid]

Not folks. Just me.

What was your point, then? That you know more than DD? That DD was lying, PA is cheap, and the sky is falling?

Okay. In order: No. No. We all know this. No.

My points are:

1) Originally, some members of the press say what some people on the OH say about standing pat.

2) There are some press that feel - like I do - that the Orioles haven't done enough to compete in 2013.

3) The attitude on here shifts strangely. A while ago, when we stank, people argued against signing free agents and making bigger trades because we weren't at the level we needed to be. Now, after 2012, folks are still saying that we shouldn't sign free agents or make certain trades. Doesn't make sense to me. I get the whole issue with the farm and draft-picks, but there were options out there.

4) We still seem to be stuck in the small-thinking, fear-based, slow-to-act GM mode typified by Andy MacPhail.

And then there's the typical Team-Hate-on-MSK rebuttals.

MSK

[CA-ORIOLE]

What does my career have to do with anything? Cheap shot man. Really cheap, but predictable.

So let me get this right: if I say PA is a penny-pinching tightwad, I'm a troll and I don't know anything about the business and I am repeating what we already know.

If you say it, then you're proving you know more than me and that I am living in a fantasy world for wanting to make improvements within the confines of PAs wallet.

Right.

MSK

It has to you not being able to accept or see reality. Maybe your career/aptitude has something to do with it. I'm not bashing your career. From what I've seen you appear to be pretty good science fiction writer. You seem unable to grasp or accept fairly clear logic though.

Case in point here. I'm not calling you out for calling PA a penny pincher. In fact, I'm the one that has indicated over and over in this thread that PA IS a penny pinching tightwad. Yet you ignore that point and state that I'm picking on you over a point that I actually made.

From there you go on further with your ridiculous strawman that you're being picked on because you're the only one that wants PA to open his wallet. Pretty ingenous really. Would be interesting if I hadn't seen the same routine 100 times already.

[MemorialStadKid]

Are you going to address what these "steps backward this team made?"

Not signing Swisher. OR. Not signing Greinke.

Not signing Bourne. OR. Not signing Hamilton.

Not making a single significant trade that upgraded offense or defense.

Reynolds leaving was good. Andino leaving was good.

Thome and Saunders, okay.

2B is a mess. Sorry. I love BRob, but he is done.

The rotation is not improved. Everything thus far is a bunch of "Ifs."

I would like a sure thing once in a while.

MSK

[Crazysilver03]

Not signing Swisher. OR. Not signing Greinke.

Not signing Bourne. OR. Not signing Hamilton.

Not making a single significant trade that upgraded offense or defense.

Reynolds leaving was good. Andino leaving was good.

Thome and Saunders, okay.

2B is a mess. Sorry. I love BRob, but he is done.

The rotation is not improved. Everything thus far is a bunch of "Ifs."

I would like a sure thing once in a while.

MSK

Only Saunders and Reynolds could be argued as this team taking a step backwards. While everything else would have added to this team, those lack of moves doesn't mean this team has taken a step back.

[CA-ORIOLE]

Only Saunders and Reynolds could be argued as this team taking a step backwards. While everything else would have added to this team, those lack of moves doesn't mean this team has taken a step back.

Well, its clear that DD decided to forgo the price of some moves and bet on further progession/health of many of the younger than 30 players. We'll see how it goes.

[Nigel Tufnel]

Okay. In order: No. No. We all know this. No.

My points are:

1) Originally, some members of the press say what some people on the OH say about standing pat.

2) There are some press that feel - like I do - that the Orioles haven't done enough to compete in 2013.

3) The attitude on here shifts strangely. A while ago, when we stank, people argued against signing free agents and making bigger trades because we weren't at the level we needed to be. Now, after 2012, folks are still saying that we shouldn't sign free agents or make certain trades. Doesn't make sense to me. I get the whole issue with the farm and draft-picks, but there were options out there.

4) We still seem to be stuck in the small-thinking, fear-based, slow-to-act GM mode typified by Andy MacPhail.

And then there's the typical Team-Hate-on-MSK rebuttals.

Well, again, I don't think anyone really wanted to stand pat. But you've got to face reality - PA doesn't like to spend and seems to hate risk on top of that. Hamilton or a big money pitcher just wasn't going to happen. I would have liked to have seen moves made, but I also trust DD, so the lack of moves might just mean that he didn't think the available players were worth their costs, or he didn't have the money. Simple as that.

[Satyr3206]

This thread has really headed downhill. It's Spring Training. The O's have a pretty good team. Try enjoying baseball.

[wildcard]

The argument against Saunders, I think, is that we have quite a few talented younger pitchers and we need the space in the rotation to let the best of them compete at the big league level and learn what they need to learn. I know that's a hard message to sell when we've seen Matusz, Arrieta, Britton, and Tillman take their lumps over the last four years after being so hyped up in the minors. But there is an argument for letting them (plus Steve Johnson and eventually Wada) compete for spots, learn from experience, and then maybe Bundy or Gausman gets a shot if most of those guys fail, and if that doesn't work, then going and getting a Saunders-equivalent for the pennant stretch if we're still in it. Tillman finally seemed to step up last year, and maybe 2013 is the year that someone else figures it all out. I think a Saunders acquisition would have made all the sense in the world if making the playoffs again in 2013 was the only goal we had, but I think that is only one of our goals. We are trying to build an organization and a culture for the long run, while also competing for a playoff spot at the same time. It's a tough balancing act and you could argue it either way IMO.

I think this is poor argument. I will almost guarantee you that if you asked Buck what his #1 goal is for this season its to win the World Series. Every other goal pails in comparison. Signing Saunders would have given the O's more to trade at the deadline. It pushes Arrieta, Britton, Johnson, Wada and maybe Matusz to the minors where they can try to dominant and raise their value. Meanwhile, Hammel, Tillman, Gonzalez Chen and Saunders would all be trying to increase their value for a deadline trade. If any of their values was high enough to bring back a MOO bat or a TOR starter at the deadline one of the AAA pitchers can join the rotation.

Not that all of the starters were going to stay healthy. We know that one or more of the starters are likely to spend time of the DL. Saunders would just have made the O's deeper. There is only one significant down side. They had to pay Saunders 6.5M that they did not want to spend. That's it.

I am not saying that the path that DD picked will not work. It may. But this rationalization that the O's are better off without Saunders is bunk. The O's know they need a MOO of the bat. DD said it all winter. Let's not try to kid ourselves here.

I think DD's plan right now is to trade for a MOO bats probably in July. That has not changed. Saunders would have helped that plan.

[Frobby]

Lack of movement? We added 11 new players to our 40 man roster, significantly increasing our depth, so when injuries do occur, we don't end up like the Blue Jays did in 2012.

Again, the first half of the season, the team was lucky, the second half, they were just good.

To be clear, the team significantly outperformed its Pythagorean record in both halves of the season. But their Pythag was pretty good in the second half (91-win pace).

I've said it over and over -- whether we contend again depends on the starting pitching. If Tillman and Gonzalez are for real, and Chen and Hammel are healthy, we'll be in the hunt. The Orioles are a good team when their pitchers keep them in the game -- that was even true in 2011. The pitchers just let thing get out of hand way too often. Tell me how many quality starts the O's get in 2013 and I bet I could guess their win total within 5 games.

[Dipper9]

Instead of trashing MSK, maybe you can give us reasons why we should think everything is going to be fine. Show us why the Orioles will be as good as last year. You spend a lot of times trashing opposing opinion but I don't see you providing a lot of data or opinions from national sources that agree with your rosy outlook.

I love ya man, and I know you mean well and you generally are a positive guy, but MSK has yet to act like a jerk in these threads.

Couple things I want to address. My list of things that the media says is more of my outlook on National writers than any kind of statement against MSK. I'm sure the article/interview was well done and showed why we can't repeat last year's success. But for me, they are all the same. All the National writers (and most local for that matter) take the easy approach when dealing with the Orioles....we didn't make any moves to get better, last year was a fluke, and the other teams in the East are better, thus we will suck. I KNOW that's their take. I've seen it time and again. So I won't waste my time reading it or listening to these interviews. Again, it has NOTHING to do with MSK and everything to do with lazy journalism.

My other point was made already. MSK and others make statements saying "the Orioles did nothing." Well, in the strictest sense of the word, he's absolutely correct. But in some circumstances, I'd rather do nothing than to trade away good young pitching for the Billy Butlers of the world. (I intentionally leave out the Hamilton's and Greinke's of the world because we KNOW Angelos won't play that game.)

My last point is, and I know this was a long time ago, but look at the 83 Birds. Aside from Cal and Eddie, and maybe Singy, the lineup was not that great. Dempsey, Dauer, Bumbry, Brother Low, I LOVE all these guys, but many of them wouldn't have been starting on other teams. It was pitching that won those early Championships for the Birds, and from what I see in 2013, it will be pitching again that makes the difference. Playing devil's advocate, even if we signed Hamilton and Greinke, it STILL would depend on our young pitching and our core players to determine what we do this season. If they fail, then it wouldn't matter anyway picking up the "superstars."

Anyway, that's it. That's my take. And I also want to thank Tony. Sometimes when I'm in a discussion, I come across as not being open minded to other people's opinions, and honestly, that's not me. So if I come across that way on occasion, then I sincerely apologize.

[Dipper9]

I guess you missed the part where I said: "This is about doing things WITHIN the spectrum of what PA is willing to do. DD said that PA gave his blessings to pursue Hamilton toward the end of the chase. I haven't seen any data that suggests that Hamilton would have been a bust if we signed him. I love it how every. single. FA. signing. is considered a bust despite the fact that every analyst and fan can see that it would only IMPROVE the Orioles."

If the report was true that PA authorized the pursuit of Hamilton, then something isn't right.

And who's whining? I want the Orioles to win as much as everybody else here. I hope I am wrong and they keep up the pace from the end of the season. The rest of the AL East just won't remain the same for us to win the same amount of games under the same circumstances.

What am I saying that is so crazy?

MSK

Let me ask you a serious question MSK, and for the record I am not attacking you, and I ASKING you. The bolded part above....why do YOU think DD didn't go after Hamilton? To me its one of two things. Either PA did NOT really give permission to go after Hamilton, or, Double D thought he wasn't worth the price. If its A, then there is nothing we can do about it, and if its B, then, no disrespect to you or the writers, but I trust Double D over the opinions of us and National writers. But I am curious, what are your thoughts on why DD didn't go after him????

[hallmt18]

For selfish reasons, I am pleased that this team didn't go free agent-heavy in the offseason.

For the teams that I follow: the more mercenary the team, the less I enjoy it. I loved the '89 O's that became the team in the early 90's that couldn't quite catch the Blue Jays. 1996 and 1997: I completely lost interest. Maybe, from a standpoint of winning in 2013, signing the likes of Greinke and Hamilton would have resulted in more wins (maybe not), but I just wouldn't care as much.

I love that I am going to have a chance to see this team get another shot at it. I can't wait for this season. I love this team.

[DrungoHazewood]

1) Originally, some members of the press say what some people on the OH say about standing pat.

Most of the press outside of Baltimore expects a 10, 15, 20 game regression from the team.

2) There are some press that feel - like I do - that the Orioles haven't done enough to compete in 2013.

I don't think that's a particularly controversial statement.

3) The attitude on here shifts strangely. A while ago, when we stank, people argued against signing free agents and making bigger trades because we weren't at the level we needed to be. Now, after 2012, folks are still saying that we shouldn't sign free agents or make certain trades. Doesn't make sense to me. I get the whole issue with the farm and draft-picks, but there were options out there.

Fans, especially fans of a team coming off of one of the most enjoyable seasons in many years, aren't going to be strongly tied to logic. If in a normal year where the O's won 65 games the OH predicts a 15-win improvment out of Kurt Ainsworth and Larry Bigbie, did you expect riots over whatever the team did this offseason? There is a plausible, if unlikely, path to contention in '13, and fans riding a wave of playoff excitement are going to latch onto it.

4) We still seem to be stuck in the small-thinking, fear-based, slow-to-act GM mode typified by Andy MacPhail.

Here's where I'm going to disagree. Duquette makes moves constantly. He acquires more players in two weeks than MacPhail woud do in two months. But Angelos is still in charge, and he still is an exceptionally risk-averse, fiscally hyperconservative owner. Not only that, but this was not a good free agent class. It was full of high-risk or moderate-return players. That's a very bad combination for someone who desperately wants a 1996-97 like free agent splash, with the new versions of Alomar and Raffy and Myers and others to suddenly appear.

I don't see how anyone could conclude that Duquette is out of the MacPhail mold. He's the most creative, forward-thinking GM the O's have had in generations. He signs Japanese pitchers and Koreans and New Zealand softballers, he was so aggressive in Korea the org got kicked out of the whole country. He's taken the Rick Peterson pitching program and instituted it full-force in an org that basically made up stuff as they went along for 20 years. If MacPhail were in charge Manny would be setting up for a 140-game stint as Norfolk's shortstop.

I think you confuse Angelos' payroll inflexibility and conservative nature with Duquette not wanting to do anything huge.

[Tony-OH]

I think this is poor argument. I will almost guarantee you that if you asked Buck what his #1 goal is for this season its to win the World Series. Every other goal pails in comparison. Signing Saunders would have given the O's more to trade at the deadline. It pushes Arrieta, Britton, Johnson, Wada and maybe Matusz to the minors where they can try to dominant and raise their value. Meanwhile, Hammel, Tillman, Gonzalez Chen and Saunders would all be trying to increase their value for a deadline trade. If any of their values was high enough to bring back a MOO bat or a TOR starter at the deadline one of the AAA pitchers can join the rotation.

Not that all of the starters were going to stay healthy. We know that one or more of the starters are likely to spend time of the DL. Saunders would just have made the O's deeper. There is only one significant down side. They had to pay Saunders 6.5M that they did not want to spend. That's it.

I am not saying that the path that DD picked will not work. It may. But this rationalization that the O's are better off without Saunders is bunk. The O's know they need a MOO of the bat. DD said it all winter. Let's not try to kid ourselves here.

I think DD's plan right now is to trade for a MOO bats probably in July. That has not changed. Saunders would have helped that plan.

What if the Orioles think Zach Britton will be better than Saunders this year. What if the Orioles, and probably the rest of baseball considering the contract he ended up getting, weren't convinced he can repeat the numbers he put up with the Orioles at the end of last year but will revert back to the guy the Diamondbacks basically gave away? Personally, I don't think the Orioles took a step back in losing Saunders or Reynolds, but I would have liked them to bring in a MOO bat or at least a young potential MOO bat this off season.