Hangout Poll: Who do you think will be the 5th starter?

[sportsfan8703]

I'm more concerned with Chen, Tillman and Hammel's health next year way more than I am of Gonzalez. That guy is a stud. Do you remember his last start or does everyone just remember the blown game. Gonzalez was unhittable most of the game. I think that Matusz makes it as the 5th starter and Mcfarland takes his spot in the pen. He's the only guy that turned it around last season. I think that was big for his confidence after what had happened to him the last 1.5 seasons. Steve Johnson is my sleeper.

[DrungoHazewood]

I think that Matusz makes it as the 5th starter and Mcfarland takes his spot in the pen. He's the only guy that turned it around last season. I think that was big for his confidence after what had happened to him the last 1.5 seasons.

But Matusz turned it around as a LOOGY, not a starter. To me, giving him a starting job based on 15 innings as a reliever is like giving someone the starting first base job after going 5-for-15 as a pinch hitter following two years of OPSing .600.

[luismatos4prez]

1) His 40-inning MLB performance doesn't match his spottier 4.17 minor league ERA. He's a year removed from an ugly 5.56 ERA at Norfolk.

2) The scouts are underwhelmed by his stuff.

3) His 2012 performance was helped by an unsustainable .229 BABIP.

Homer's Advocate:

- It does match his 2.86 ERA in 90 IP in Norfolk last year. Is it impossible that he figured something out? He does have Rick Peterson at his service.

- So was I. There seems to be something in his delivery that makes it really tough for hitters to time him. Hitting is timing. Pitching is upsetting timing. Look at the ridiculous success he had with his seemingly ordinary fastball.

- It was also helped by his 10.8 K/9 and 2.56 K/BB.

[DrungoHazewood]

Homer's Advocate:

- It does match his 2.86 ERA in 90 IP in Norfolk last year. Is it impossible that he figured something out? He does have Rick Peterson at his service.

- So was I. There seems to be something in his delivery that makes it really tough for hitters to time him. Hitting is timing. Pitching is upsetting timing. Look at the ridiculous success he had with his seemingly ordinary fastball.

- It was also helped by his 10.8 K/9 and 2.56 K/BB.

Norfolk is an entirely different context. It is arguably the best place to pitch in AAA. A 2.89 there is the rough equivalent of a 4.50 in the majors. Of course it's possible he figured something out. We'll see.

[Frobby]

Going into last season, Britton was considered a shoe-in for the rotation. He got derailed with shoulder problems. I think he's the most likely to win a spot of those listed in the poll. I'm really rooting for Matusz but I think the O's brass is inclined to put him in the bullpen.

[Frobby]

Norfolk is an entirely different context. It is arguably the best place to pitch in AAA. A 2.89 there is the rough equivalent of a 4.50 in the majors. Of course it's possible he figured something out. We'll see.

At Norfolk:

Johnson 2.86 ERA

Tillman 3.63

Arrieta 4.02

Matusz 4.21

Hunter 4.66

Britton 4.91

That certainly suggests that Johnson should be taken seriously in relation to his competition.

[Bradysburns]

What Drungo Said.

Same here. I predicted Britton would end last season as our ace. I'll double down on that this year. I think he has a chance to not only make the rotation, but emerge - over the course of the season - as our best pitcher. Arrieta could turn the corner, Tillman-style, as well. Frankly, who knows who will make up our rotation? Who would have predicted last year that Saunders would have started one of our most important playoff games!

[DrungoHazewood]

At Norfolk:

Johnson 2.86 ERA

Tillman 3.63

Arrieta 4.02

Matusz 4.21

Hunter 4.66

Britton 4.91

That certainly suggests that Johnson should be taken seriously in relation to his competition.

That may be. But most of those numbers are not indicative of major league quality performances. The IL ERA was around 4.00 and Norfolk context is lower.

[russ snyder]

I think Britton is the odds on favorite for this role. We'll see how it shakes out in St, but if he's effective in exhibition games I think he'll open the season as the fifth starter.

[Il BuonO]

At Norfolk:

Johnson 2.86 ERA

Tillman 3.63

Arrieta 4.02

Matusz 4.21

Hunter 4.66

Britton 4.91

That certainly suggests that Johnson should be taken seriously in relation to his competition.

I don't think Britton was ever really right last year while trying to come back and I'm not sure Hunter is in the competition at all regardless of what they may say. I think they have seen enough of him to know he can't go through a batting order more than once and his transition to the BP at the end of last year was effective.

[scOtt]

Of the four you listed Tony I think Britton is the most likely. Even so, the possibilities are almost endless, with all the candidates we have. It might be TJM.

[scOtt]

Britton, Arrieta, Matusz, Johnson, Jurjjens, and Redmond all have option years remaining. Mr. Rule 5 Pick MFar () must stay on the roster.

While Arrieta has been said to have the most talent, he has the poorest results of that group and didn't look any better after his stint at Norfolk. I would send him down to work with Peterson. If he is given another chance and completely bombs, he will have no value whatsoever and will be sent to Norfolk anyway. Hopefully if he goes to Norfolk first, he can rebuild some value and skill. This is why Jurjjens will also end up in Norfolk once he is signed.

Britton looked good for those 4 starts and then with one bad outing lost his position. For him, I think its a numbers game. I would send him down to Norfolk to get a start or two in. Johnson is also caught in a numbers game.

Matusz will most likely end up in the bullpen, especially if a trade of a bullpen arm occurs.

When it is all said and done, I think MacFarland gets the first start in the #5 spot, but remember, we can skip that spot the second time through because of off-days, so why not keep MacFarland to make the start and work out of the bullpen to get an "extended look." We can always end it in mid-April and call up someone else to fill the 5th starter role. Or, if someone is hurt in the bullpen, just slide MacFarland into that role. One of the things I liked about Andy MacPhail was that he didn't make a decision until he had to, and I think this scenario is what ends up playing out.

That's a good point Crazy. Need a fifth starter on the 6th and then not again til the 20th, 25th and 30th. Good time to try out anyone but the bigger point is the fifth starter doesn't really get decided til the end of the month.

[Barnaby Graves]

I am more of a believer in Johnson than maybe any of the listed candidates. I could see any one of ten people winning this job.

I think another question is, who is your 6th starter? Out of Hammel, Chen, Tillman, and Gonzalez, I think Gonzalez and Hammel are the most likely to lose jobs at some point, Gonzalez from regression and Hammel from regression/injury, but that's a lot of guesswork.

I think the first replacement for a starter would be one of the losers of Arrieta/Britton/Johnson for the 5th spot, and after two months, whoever the hot hand is at Norfolk.

[backwardsk]

That's a good point Crazy. Need a fifth starter on the 6th and then not again til the 20th, 25th and 30th. Good time to try out anyone but the bigger point is the fifth starter doesn't really get decided til the end of the month.

I always get myself confused on this, but wouldn't we need a fifth on 4/16 after the numer 2's third start?

[Crazysilver03]

I always get myself confused on this, but wouldn't we need a fifth on 4/16 after the numer 2's third start?

After looking at the schedule there would be a need on the 14th.