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Vegas over under for Orioles wins 76.5


Ibanezsondajuice

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Thanks for the education. One question though, how does Vegas/bookies make money then if things are even on both sides? Are they getting a cut like in poker?

Juice/vig, whatever you want to call it. That's how Vegas makes her money. See the (-115) next to the line? That means Vegas pays out $85 on a $100 bet. Their goal is to get an even amount of bets on each side of the outcome.

For example, let's say 4 people total bet $100 on the 76.5 line, two over and two under. Vegas loves this because she'll get $30 no matter the out come.

Player a: $100 on the under

Player b: $100 on the under

Player c: $100 on the over

Player d: $100 on the over.

So at the beginning of the season Vegas is up $400 and each player is down $100.

The Orioles win 106 games.

Player a is still out $100

Player b is still out $100

Player c gets $185 from the book

Player d gets $185 from the book

Vegas pockets the $30. Additionally, Vegas "floats" the $400 from spring training to the date of the 77th win. Meaning they have 6-7 months to invest it prior to making any payouts.

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Right but if the majority of money comes in on the Over and the line moves up and the majority of money continues to be on the Over and the O's have a great year and all the overs hit, Vegas would lose money, right? It is not in their best interest to drastically underestimate teams. They don't want to give anyone an easy bet. Vegas thinks 76.5 is a fair O/U for the Orioles and thinks they will make the most money with this line.

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Thanks for the education. One question though, how does Vegas/bookies make money then if things are even on both sides? Are they getting a cut like in poker?

Yes, that's pretty much it. Vegas doesn't gamble, whenever possible. They want to make money off of the gamblers.

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Right but if the majority of money comes in on the Over and the line moves up and the majority of money continues to be on the Over and the O's have a great year and all the overs hit, Vegas would lose money, right? It is not in their best interest to drastically underestimate teams. They don't want to give anyone an easy bet. Vegas thinks 76.5 is a fair O/U for the Orioles and thinks they will make the most money with this line.

Please understand that this in no way means that they think the Orioles will win 76 or 77 games. They simply don't care about that. They think that their will be close to the same amount wagered by the betting public on either side of that line. They are handicapping the bettors, not the team. Vegas doesn't bet on teams.

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Please understand that this in no way means that they think the Orioles will win 76 or 77 games. They simply don't care about that. They think that their will be close to the same amount wagered by the betting public on either side of that line. They are handicapping the bettors, not the team. Vegas doesn't bet on teams.

That's a key point that I didn't know, thanks for filling us all in.

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http://www.covers.com/articles/articles.aspx?theArt=307098

Toughest totals to set

The American League East, more than any other division in baseball, gave Mikkelson the most fits when calculating this season’s MLB win totals. He has Toronto and New York with 86.5 wins and Tampa Bay with 86, leaving Boston at 79.5 and Baltimore at 76.5 bringing up the rear.

“The Yankees and Red Sox have long been the power in the division, but this year every team besides maybe the Orioles could win the division,” Mikkelson told Covers.com. “I think (Baltimore) over-performed last year and I have them coming back down to earth.”

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Juice/vig, whatever you want to call it. That's how Vegas makes her money. See the (-115) next to the line? That means Vegas pays out $85 on a $100 bet. Their goal is to get an even amount of bets on each side of the outcome.

For example, let's say 4 people total bet $100 on the 76.5 line, two over and two under. Vegas loves this because she'll get $30 no matter the out come.

Player a: $100 on the under

Player b: $100 on the under

Player c: $100 on the over

Player d: $100 on the over.

So at the beginning of the season Vegas is up $400 and each player is down $100.

The Orioles win 106 games.

Player a is still out $100

Player b is still out $100

Player c gets $185 from the book

Player d gets $185 from the book

Vegas pockets the $30. Additionally, Vegas "floats" the $400 from spring training to the date of the 77th win. Meaning they have 6-7 months to invest it prior to making any payouts.

Vegas also makes money when you go into the casino to place the bet on the O's. You drop some coins in the slots, play some blackjack or poker, etc. Some casinos tweak the line to increase flow into the casino.

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Personally, I think vegas betting odds have nothing to do with talent evaluation. How many guys from New York City go to Vegas and how many guys from Baltimore go to Vegas? Since the Yankees have a national following and the little ole O's don't, how many guys will bet for the Yankees compared to the Orioles? The Vegas guys aren't making their odds based on savy, knowledgeable fans, they are basing their odds on who they think will bet.

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Article written today on Fangraphs discussing the 76.5 over/under set by Vegas. Writer analyzes baseball's best bullpens over the last 40 years and their team's regression in wins the following year. Mainly focuses on bullpen's with the highest WPA and Clutchness. He doesn't say that he believes the Orioles will win only 76, but argues they are more likely to be closer to 76 wins then they are to 93.

Snippet:

The 2012 Orioles? combination of the highest recorded bullpen WPA and bullpen clutch score is just one of many statistical indicators pointing more towards 76.5 wins than 93 in 2013. One can also point to their Pythagorean record (82-80), ZiPS projected WAR (33, per this post) and the fact they were outscored (511-504) in the first six innings of games, for example.

Nothing about Baltimore?s relievers suggests its clutch bullpen dominance will continue.[...]

Link: The Baltimore Orioles and Fleeting Bullpen Greatness

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I lost 25 cents to a classmate betting that the Baltimore Colts would beat the New York Jets in the 1969 Super Bowl. That was the last time that I bet on a sports event involving a team I root for. I never want to bet against my team, and if I lose a bet in favor of my team, it just makes things that much worse. I HATED paying that kid the 25 cents almost as much as I hated watching the Colts lose the game.

So, hypothetically, I'd easily take the over on 76.5, but I'd never actually put money on either side of that proposition.

Did you bet him before or after the guarantee?!

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