PECOTA projects the Orioles record at 74-88

[El Gordo]

I think 90 W would be a problem this season. Last year BOS and TOR were poor, they have both improved a lot this season. There should be more parity in the AL East. I see us as an 84-86 W team with the possibility of getting to around 90 W, if the SP improves somewhat and the offense, with Reimold and a healthy Markakis, improves modestly. If the SP struggles we could be in the neighbor hood of .500.I don't see 74 W unless there is a high degree of injury again this year.

[Mayor McCheese]

I think 90 W would be a problem this season. Last year BOS and TOR were poor, they have both improved a lot this season. There should be more parity in the AL East. I see us as an 84-86 W team with the possibility of getting to around 90 W, if the SP improves somewhat and the offense, with Reimold and a healthy Markakis, improves modestly. If the SP struggles we could be in the neighbor hood of .500.I don't see 74 W unless there is a high degree of injury again this year.

I agree, its going to be a 3 headed race all season.

3 teams will be 1-3 games apart.

1 team will be hovering around 10+ games but not out of the race.

1 team will be out of it either due to injury / bad year.

I see it as:

BAL

NYY

TOR

BOS

TAM

[Frobby]

I've been around too long to think that 93 wins last year guarantees a winning season this year. That said, I don't agree with PECOTA's assessment of our pitching staff, and therefore I don't agree with its 74-88 projection. Fortunately, they don't play the game on a computer, they play it on the field. So, I'm ready to watch and see what happens.

[NewMarketSean]

I'm sticking with 85 wins as the record that I see coming up most if the season was played a million times.

A 5 game swing either way wouldn't surprise me.

It'll be really tough to win 93 games again based on just the internal improvement of our roster. Really hard.

[NCRaven]

I'm sticking with 85 wins as the record that I see coming up most if the season was played a million times.

A 5 game swing either way wouldn't surprise me.

It'll be really tough to win 93 games again based on just the internal improvement of our roster. Really hard.

If last year's team was a 93 win team, and there has been internal improvement, then there is no way I see a losing record and can definitely see us approaching last year's 93 wins. I think this team will be better than last years. Does that mean 93 wins or more? Not necessarily, but I do see the potential for a lot of improvement in the rotation. I think there is enough depth in the bullpen that we won't see a big drop off there. And, other than 2B, I'm pretty satisfied with the lineup potential, as well. If we had a proven bat in LF, I'd be happier, but I think that McLouth and Reimold, in some combination of at bats, could provide solid production. We don't have Frank Robinson or Eddie Murray in their primes, but we have a pretty deep group of players. I'm not an expert of PECOTA and it's history of accurately predicting team records, but I think that it is understating this teams potential.

[NewMarketSean]

If last year's team was a 93 win team, and there has been internal improvement, then there is no way I see a losing record and can definitely see us approaching last year's 93 wins. I think this team will be better than last years. Does that mean 93 wins or more? Not necessarily, but I do see the potential for a lot of improvement in the rotation. I think there is enough depth in the bullpen that we won't see a big drop off there. And, other than 2B, I'm pretty satisfied with the lineup potential, as well. If we had a proven bat in LF, I'd be happier, but I think that McLouth and Reimold, in some combination of at bats, could provide solid production. We don't have Frank Robinson or Eddie Murray in their primes, but we have a pretty deep group of players. I'm not an expert of PECOTA and it's history of accurately predicting team records, but I think that it is understating this teams potential.

We had a lot of luck last year, for lack of a better term. The one-run record, the extra innings record, they're both unsustainable and will both likely come back to the median this year, even if we do have a good bit of internal improvement.

[NCRaven]

We had a lot of luck last year, for lack of a better term. The one-run record, the extra innings record, they're both unsustainable and will both likely come back to the median this year, even if we do have a good bit of internal improvement.

I don't think our 93 wins were entirely dependent on the one-run and extra innings games. The Indians had a great year in one-run games and had an abysmal overall record. We can win fewer one run games if the internal improvement discussed leads to more 2+ run wins. That can mean better pitching from the rotation, which I think is reasonable, and more consistent production from the hitters, which I also think is reasonable.

Every year is different for every team. How we won games last year has little bearing on how we win them this year.

[Dagger420]

According to the Clubhouse Confidential on MLB Network, PECOTA projects the Orioles record at 74-88.

So we have Vegas giving us the over/under at 76.5 and PECOTA projected 74 wins.

I know this has been beat into the ground, but it does goes to show that besides some optimism from the fans and organization, most people predict a deep dive for the Orioles in 2013.

Me, I think we're about an 82 win team give or take 4-5 wins.

I hope Buck is blasting this kind of stuff all through the clubhouse. As he's said before, this is a team full of guys who've been told they can't (Guys like McClouth, Davis, Hammel, the list goes on) and have excelled. I think they can really thrive off this me-against-the-world type attitude. Much like the Ravens (No Weapon!).

[atomic]

I don't think anyone predicted the Orioles record correctly last year...including anyone on here. I am no worried about anyone's predictions. The starting pitching will determine how well this team does this year. I think it can be better than last year.

[Dagger420]

We had a lot of luck last year, for lack of a better term. The one-run record, the extra innings record, they're both unsustainable and will both likely come back to the median this year, even if we do have a good bit of internal improvement.

Luck is a hard word for me to accept. I think the "luck" you refer to favors hard work and determination. Its not like the O's rolled a pair of die to win those close ball-games. They had the intestinal fortitude and where-with-all to get it done when it counted most.

A lot of the saber guys on here look at baseball as more of a (somewhat random) dispersion of statistics. I've noticed that its hard for many to see that things like these are less about luck, and more about determination and will to win. Look at the Ravens... sure they had some things go their way (every champion does). But what really brought them through all those tough situations (4th quarter in Denver, the goal-line stand in the SB) was the sheer will to win. They wanted it more, just like this Orioles team did last season.

I don't think you see hard-core "reversions to the mean" because this team isn't to be measured against the statistical "norm." They are by-far no normal team. They have a synergy that Buck has helped create and hone.

That's how I see it anyhow.

[Dagger420]

I don't think anyone predicted the Orioles record correctly last year...including anyone on here. I am no worried about anyone's predictions. The starting pitching will determine how well this team does this year. I think it can be better than last year.

The pitching appears to be as deep as the Marianas Trench. It will keep us in most games.

Strong pitching and mediocre offensive production (another reason for the glut of one-run wins rather than "luck.")

[Frobby]

Luck is a hard word for me to accept. I think the "luck" you refer to favors hard work and determination. Its not like the O's rolled a pair of die to win those close ball-games. They had the intestinal fortitude and where-with-all to get it done when it counted most.

A lot of the saber guys on here look at baseball as more of a (somewhat random) dispersion of statistics. I've noticed that its hard for many to see that things like these are less about luck, and more about determination and will to win. Look at the Ravens... sure they had some things go their way (every champion does). But what really brought them through all those tough situations (4th quarter in Denver, the goal-line stand in the SB) was the sheer will to win. They wanted it more, just like this Orioles team did last season.

I don't think you see hard-core "reversions to the mean" because this team isn't to be measured against the statistical "norm." They are by-far no normal team. They have a synergy that Buck has helped create and hone.

That's how I see it anyhow.

I get what you mean, but it certainly has been shown in baseball history that teams with an excellent record in one-run games usually aren't able to repeat that feat the following year.

[NewMarketSean]

I also said, "for lack of a better term".

Someone, or some team, might be the best tightrope walkers in the world but pretty soon they're going to fall.

And with the bullpen being the most volatile part of a baseball team year to year, the bullpen is the area where I see most of the regression taking place.

[DrungoHazewood]

And why can't they?

Because by some measures they were the best, most clutch bullpen ever, and the odds of that happening again are astronomical.

Whatever Drungo says, I say! :slytf: (78 - 88 wins)

:agree:

Oh, Bob, don't take me that seriously! You may have more faith in my crystal ball than I do!

[brianod]

Luck is a hard word for me to accept. I think the "luck" you refer to favors hard work and determination. Its not like the O's rolled a pair of die to win those close ball-games. They had the intestinal fortitude and where-with-all to get it done when it counted most.

A lot of the saber guys on here look at baseball as more of a (somewhat random) dispersion of statistics. I've noticed that its hard for many to see that things like these are less about luck, and more about determination and will to win. Look at the Ravens... sure they had some things go their way (every champion does). But what really brought them through all those tough situations (4th quarter in Denver, the goal-line stand in the SB) was the sheer will to win. They wanted it more, just like this Orioles team did last season.

I don't think you see hard-core "reversions to the mean" because this team isn't to be measured against the statistical "norm." They are by-far no normal team. They have a synergy that Buck has helped create and hone.

That's how I see it anyhow.

I think talent wise, this team wins 86-90 games. Add in the intangibles and this team does better. I'm predicting 97 but would settle for 93