PECOTA projects the Orioles record at 74-88

[Can_of_corn]

Im sorry, but I do not fear the Red Sox, I just dont see how they're improved.

They got rid of Valentine.

[Frobby]

I think the Yankees offense takes a step back due to losing Swisher, Ibanez, ARod, and Chavez.

Don't forget Russell Martin. I think he was an underrated contributor to the Yankees the last couple of years, and that they're going to suffer with Cervelli/Stewart/Romine, both offensively and defensively.

[Frobby]

Im sorry, but I do not fear the Red Sox, I just dont see how they're improved.

Take a look at their injury situation last year. They have the most games lost due to injury of any team in MLB.

Position Players: Crawford (130), Ellsbury (86), McDonald (23), Kalish (59), Sweeney (83), Ross (28), Podesdnik (16), Youkilis (22), Pedroia (10), Ortiz (35), Nava (25), Middlebrooks (47), Repko (55)

Starters: Matsusaka (59), Beckett (13), Buchholz (16), Cook (44), Doubront (13)

Relievers: Bailey (116), Hill (74), Atchison (54), Carpenter (105), Padilla (15), Morales (37)

Total - 609 position players, 145 starters (excl. Lackey), 401 relievers (excl. Jenks) = 1155 games missed

Granted, some of the players who missed time won't be on the 2013 Red Sox, or weren't important. But they'll be giving a lot less playing time to replacement-level players.

[CA-ORIOLE]

Don't forget Russell Martin. I think he was an underrated contributor to the Yankees the last couple of years, and that they're going to suffer with Cervelli/Stewart/Romine, both offensively and defensively.

Martin finished well for them last year. He really hurt us in a few games.

[Oldorioles]

Last year, the Pythagorean formula had us at 82 wins. We lost Reynolds, Andino, and I think Arrieta will be in AAA. We gain Machado and the possibility of full season contributions from Britton, Reimold, and Roberts. While not expecting them to be lights out, I'll say we improve by one win....83 wins.

Let's look at the other teams and what they've added and subtracted. Then, see what the rWAR difference is for these key players, averaged over the last three years:

New York

Lost:Martin, A-Rod, Ibanez, Swisher, Chavez, F. Garcia, Soriano.

Gained:Romine, Youkilis, Suzuki (for a full year), Gardner, Hafner, Pineda (when healthy) Rivera.

WAR Difference: +1.8

Tampa

Lost:Pena, E. Johnson, Upton, Shields, W. Davis.

Gained: Loney, K. Johnson, Escobar, Wright, R. Hernandez

WAR Difference: +0.1

Toronto

Lost: K. Johnson, Escobar, Alvarez, F. Cordero, Frasor, Villanueva, Laffey

Gained: Bonifacio, M. Cabrera, Reyes, Dickey, J. Johnson, Buehrle, Santos

WAR Difference: +11.7

BOSTON

Lost: A. Gonzalez, Aviles, Nava, Ross, Beckett, Cook, Padilla, Matuszaka,

Gained: Napoli, Drew, Victorino, Gomes, Dempster, Lackey (from injury), Hanrahan, Uehara

WAR Difference: +4.8

I think it will be a much tighter division. This is a bit crude for several reason, but still interesting:

TEAM..........2012 PYTHAG.........WAR DIFF...........2013

NYY................95........................+2...................97

TB..................95.......................0......................95

TOR................74.......................+12..................86

BAL................82........................+1...................83

BOS...............74........................+5...................79

[VeveJones007]

Take a look at their injury situation last year. They have the most games lost due to injury of any team in MLB.

Position Players: Crawford (130), Ellsbury (86), McDonald (23), Kalish (59), Sweeney (83), Ross (28), Podesdnik (16), Youkilis (22), Pedroia (10), Ortiz (35), Nava (25), Middlebrooks (47), Repko (55)

Starters: Matsusaka (59), Beckett (13), Buchholz (16), Cook (44), Doubront (13)

Relievers: Bailey (116), Hill (74), Atchison (54), Carpenter (105), Padilla (15), Morales (37)

Total - 609 position players, 145 starters (excl. Lackey), 401 relievers (excl. Jenks) = 1155 games missed

Granted, some of the players who missed time won't be on the 2013 Red Sox, or weren't important. But they'll be giving a lot less playing time to replacement-level players.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but PECOTA is counting on Lester having a nice bounceback season. Unless he and Buchholz get back to their success of a few years ago, I don't see the Red Sox as being a real threat.

[CA-ORIOLE]

Last year, the Pythagorean formula had us at 82 wins. We lost Reynolds, Andino, and I think Arrieta will be in AAA. We gain Machado and the possibility of full season contributions from Britton, Reimold, and Roberts. While not expecting them to be lights out, I'll say we improve by one win....83 wins.

Let's look at the other teams and what they've added and subtracted. Then, see what the rWAR difference is for these key players, averaged over the last three years:New York

Lost:Martin, A-Rod, Ibanez, Swisher, Chavez, F. Garcia, Soriano.

Gained:Romine, Youkilis, Suzuki (for a full year), Gardner, Hafner, Pineda (when healthy) Rivera.

WAR Difference: +1.8

Tampa

Lost:Pena, E. Johnson, Upton, Shields, W. Davis.

Gained: Loney, K. Johnson, Escobar, Wright, R. Hernandez

WAR Difference: +0.1

Toronto

Lost: K. Johnson, Escobar, Alvarez, F. Cordero, Frasor, Villanueva, Laffey

Gained: Bonifacio, M. Cabrera, Reyes, Dickey, J. Johnson, Buehrle, Santos

WAR Difference: +11.7

BOSTON

Lost: A. Gonzalez, Aviles, Nava, Ross, Beckett, Cook, Padilla, Matuszaka,

Gained: Napoli, Drew, Victorino, Gomes, Dempster, Lackey (from injury), Hanrahan, Uehara

WAR Difference: +4.8

I think it will be a much tighter division. This is a bit crude for several reason, but still interesting:

TEAM..........2012 PYTHAG.........WAR DIFF...........2013

NYY................95........................+2...................97

TB..................95.......................0......................95

TOR................74.......................+12..................86

BAL................82........................+1...................83

BOS...............74........................+5...................79

I know some people will have issues with you using WAR like this, but I really don't. Particularly that you used a 3 year run and basically projected out 1 year. What I find interesting here is that PECOTA is a projection system (which I don't think factors defense/while WAR does) and DD is in fact relying heavily on many players to improve their individual performances based on their age/development profiles. It seams PECOTA views those development profiles much more harshly than DD does.

On a side note, I don't see last years pythag as relevant to much of anything at this point. The underlying issues causing pythag have changed dramatically and/or can be isolated/adjusted in more detail.

[NCRaven]

On a side note, I don't see last years pythag as relevant to much of anything at this point. The underlying issues causing pythag have changed dramatically and/or can be isolated/adjusted in more detail.

Agreed. As I understand the Pythag calculation, it relies on the difference between runs scored and runs allowed, and says given these numbers, this is how many games a team should have won and lost. It's really a look back, not a look forward. So the Orioles significantly outplayed what you would expect a team to do, given their actual run differential.

But, for this year, we have no way of knowing what that run differential will be, before the fact. If the starting pitching is better and the bullpen remains solid, the runs allowed could be significantly less. I think we could see offensive productivity increases across the infield. Davis could very well be better than Reynolds; any combination of players is likely to be better than we had at 2B; Hardy could move toward his career norms after a down season; and Machado will be a more experienced player this season. Wieters is a question mark for me who could go either way. And, the outfield figures to be better in LF with McLouth and Reimold over whoever; Jones continuing his steady production; and Markakis back to health (the guy had been a constant till freakish stuff happened last year).

So, our run differential this year could be significantly better than last, leading to a better Pythag predicted W-L record.

[Frobby]

Last year, the Pythagorean formula had us at 82 wins. We lost Reynolds, Andino, and I think Arrieta will be in AAA. We gain Machado and the possibility of full season contributions from Britton, Reimold, and Roberts. While not expecting them to be lights out, I'll say we improve by one win....83 wins.

Let's look at the other teams and what they've added and subtracted. Then, see what the rWAR difference is for these key players, averaged over the last three years:

New York

Lost:Martin, A-Rod, Ibanez, Swisher, Chavez, F. Garcia, Soriano.

Gained:Romine, Youkilis, Suzuki (for a full year), Gardner, Hafner, Pineda (when healthy) Rivera.

WAR Difference: +1.8

I just don't see this. Youkilis is 34, injury prone and on a steep downhill slide. Ichiro is 39 and will be hard pressed to replicate what he did as a Yankee last year. Rivera is 43, coming off a serious injury and will not be likely to outperform what Soriano did last year. Hafner is 36. Pineda is coming off shoulder surgery and who knows whether he'll contribute. Romine and Cervelli aren't as good as Martin. Who knows whether Jeter will be able to come back from his ankle and be as good as in 2012, when he already was defying gravity. I will be absolutely shocked if the Yankees don't slip at least a few games in 2013.

[Old#5fan]

That's odd. I'm wearing a #32 t-shirt right now. Under a sweat shirt...

My daughter and son-in-law gave me a beautiful replica Wieters game jersey for combination Christmas and birthday gift. It is the black jersey and really sharp. I cannot wait to wear it to a game. :boogie:

[boller4president]

If last year's team was a 93 win team, and there has been internal improvement, then there is no way I see a losing record and can definitely see us approaching last year's 93 wins. I think this team will be better than last years. Does that mean 93 wins or more? Not necessarily, but I do see the potential for a lot of improvement in the rotation. I think there is enough depth in the bullpen that we won't see a big drop off there. And, other than 2B, I'm pretty satisfied with the lineup potential, as well. If we had a proven bat in LF, I'd be happier, but I think that McLouth and Reimold, in some combination of at bats, could provide solid production. We don't have Frank Robinson or Eddie Murray in their primes, but we have a pretty deep group of players. I'm not an expert of PECOTA and it's history of accurately predicting team records, but I think that it is understating this teams potential.

The problem is last years team is not viewed as a legit 93 win team. I think thats the major difference between how computer models and most experts are evaluating the O's versus how O's fans on forums view the team going forward.

For example, their pythag wins was 82 last season and for the majority of the season opponents actually scored more runs then the O's. You guys had a .701 winpct in games decided by two runs (54-23) or less while their pythag win pct in those same games was just .567 (44-33).

Thats just not sustainable and is without taking account career years for many of your players (regression candidates) and improved TOR and BOS teams.

Ultimately, I think thats where the 74-79 win projections come from.

Now, I understand O's fans hoping lightening strikes twice but you can't expect computer models and national experts to do the same. They are trying to predict the AL EAST with all things being equal not under the perfect set of circumstances for any one team.

[luismatos4prez]

Last year, the Pythagorean formula had us at 82 wins. We lost Reynolds, Andino, and I think Arrieta will be in AAA. We gain Machado and the possibility of full season contributions from Britton, Reimold, and Roberts. While not expecting them to be lights out, I'll say we improve by one win....83 wins.

Let's look at the other teams and what they've added and subtracted. Then, see what the rWAR difference is for these key players, averaged over the last three years:

New York

Lost:Martin, A-Rod, Ibanez, Swisher, Chavez, F. Garcia, Soriano.

Gained:Romine, Youkilis, Suzuki (for a full year), Gardner, Hafner, Pineda (when healthy) Rivera.

WAR Difference: +1.8

Tampa

Lost:Pena, E. Johnson, Upton, Shields, W. Davis.

Gained: Loney, K. Johnson, Escobar, Wright, R. Hernandez

WAR Difference: +0.1

Toronto

Lost: K. Johnson, Escobar, Alvarez, F. Cordero, Frasor, Villanueva, Laffey

Gained: Bonifacio, M. Cabrera, Reyes, Dickey, J. Johnson, Buehrle, Santos

WAR Difference: +11.7

BOSTON

Lost: A. Gonzalez, Aviles, Nava, Ross, Beckett, Cook, Padilla, Matuszaka,

Gained: Napoli, Drew, Victorino, Gomes, Dempster, Lackey (from injury), Hanrahan, Uehara

WAR Difference: +4.8

I think it will be a much tighter division. This is a bit crude for several reason, but still interesting:

TEAM..........2012 PYTHAG.........WAR DIFF...........2013

NYY................95........................+2...................97

TB..................95.......................0......................95

TOR................74.......................+12..................86

BAL................82........................+1...................83

BOS...............74........................+5...................79

Awesome job. That scenario seems very realistic to me except for the Yankees. On paper, you're correct but in reality, they're hanging on by a thread. I don't see how they could overcome an injury to any starter.

[Frobby]

The problem is last years team was not a legit 93 win team. I think thats the major difference between how computer models and most experts are evaluating the O's versus how O's fans on forums view the team going forward.

Their pythag wins was 82 last season and for the majority of the season opponents actually scored more runs then the O's. You guys had a .701 winpct in games decided by two runs (54-23) or less while their pythag win pct in those same games was just .567 (44-33).

Thats just not sustainable and is without taking account career years for many of your players (regression candidates) and improved TOR and BOS teams.

Ultimately, I think thats where the 74-79 win projections come from.

Now, I understand O's fans hoping lightening strikes twice but you can't expect non-partisan computer models and national experts to follow suit.

I disagree with the bolded part. Other than Jones and arguably Davis, I don't see any offensive players who had a career year. I'd argue there's more upside than downside offensively. I see the starting pitching as a mixed bag, some guys who exceded expectations and some guys who were big-time disappointments. The bullpen is the one place where I expect some regression, but that's where the one-run games were won, so you don't count it twice.

Overall, the models I've seen are fair enough on offense, it's the regression in the pitching I take issue with. The pitching got better as the year progressed, in part because the defensive alignment was better, and I expect the 2013 Orioles to allow fewer runs overall than in 2012.

[boller4president]

Last year, the Pythagorean formula had us at 82 wins. We lost Reynolds, Andino, and I think Arrieta will be in AAA. We gain Machado and the possibility of full season contributions from Britton, Reimold, and Roberts. While not expecting them to be lights out, I'll say we improve by one win....83 wins.

Let's look at the other teams and what they've added and subtracted. Then, see what the rWAR difference is for these key players, averaged over the last three years:

New York

Lost:Martin, A-Rod, Ibanez, Swisher, Chavez, F. Garcia, Soriano.

Gained:Romine, Youkilis, Suzuki (for a full year), Gardner, Hafner, Pineda (when healthy) Rivera.

WAR Difference: +1.8

Tampa

Lost:Pena, E. Johnson, Upton, Shields, W. Davis.

Gained: Loney, K. Johnson, Escobar, Wright, R. Hernandez

WAR Difference: +0.1

Toronto

Lost: K. Johnson, Escobar, Alvarez, F. Cordero, Frasor, Villanueva, Laffey

Gained: Bonifacio, M. Cabrera, Reyes, Dickey, J. Johnson, Buehrle, Santos

WAR Difference: +11.7

BOSTON

Lost: A. Gonzalez, Aviles, Nava, Ross, Beckett, Cook, Padilla, Matuszaka,

Gained: Napoli, Drew, Victorino, Gomes, Dempster, Lackey (from injury), Hanrahan, Uehara

WAR Difference: +4.8

I think it will be a much tighter division. This is a bit crude for several reason, but still interesting:

TEAM..........2012 PYTHAG.........WAR DIFF...........2013

NYY................95........................+2...................97

TB..................95.......................0......................95

TOR................74.......................+12..................86

BAL................82........................+1...................83

BOS...............74........................+5...................79

Is the rWAR for the last three years used for departing players as well? I would obviously have a problem using those numbers as they could be signifcantly off versus how the player actually performed in 2012 and thus skew the improvement numbers.

[mdbdotcom]

We could see every team in the AL East finishing with 82-88 wins. Then again, if Johnson and Romero bounce back, the Blue Jays could be unstoppable. There are so many question marks out there for each team. Even the Yankees, for a change.