Jump to content

PECOTA projects the Orioles record at 74-88


Tony-OH

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 115
  • Created
  • Last Reply
Weams thinks the 2013 Boston team was as lucky as the 2012 O's team.

Boston had some luck in 2013, but it was a different kind than what the O's had in 2012. First, they avoided the terrible bad luck they had previously had with injuries in 2012. Second, most (not all) of their FA acquisitions had excellent seasons. From a Pythagorean point of view, though, they weren't lucky at all, and in fact, underperformed by a couple of games considering their run differential.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Boston had some luck in 2013, but it was a different kind than what the O's had in 2012. First, they avoided the terrible bad luck they had previously had with injuries in 2012. Second, most (not all) of their FA acquisitions had excellent seasons. From a Pythagorean point of view, though, they weren't lucky at all, and in fact, underperformed by a couple of games considering their run differential.

I know.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2012 was only the second season in which Chris Davis has played in at least half of his team's games, outdistancing 2009 by 26 games and 143 plate appearances. Of course he turned in his "career year." He turns 27 in March. He appears to now be stabilized in a position. Why would you forecast regression in those circumstances? While anything is possible, it appears to me that a season of at least equal productivity to last year is at least as likely as a regression. In fact, I think that continued improvement is probably more likely than regression.

I don't think that Davis will regress in 2013.

Maybe in 2014 he will.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2012 was only the second season in which Chris Davis has played in at least half of his team's games, outdistancing 2009 by 26 games and 143 plate appearances. Of course he turned in his "career year." He turns 27 in March. He appears to now be stabilized in a position. Why would you forecast regression in those circumstances? While anything is possible, it appears to me that a season of at least equal productivity to last year is at least as likely as a regression. In fact, I think that continued improvement is probably more likely than regression.

I don't think that Davis will regress in 2013.

Maybe in 2014 he will.

Umm ... you do realize that this was a thread bump, and that you are quoting a post of mine from last year, right? Looks like I did pretty well on that one, if I say so myself. :D

Malike, can you help out here ???

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I think 90 W would be a problem this season. Last year BOS and TOR were poor, they have both improved a lot this season. There should be more parity in the AL East. I see us as an 84-86 W team with the possibility of getting to around 90 W, if the SP improves somewhat and the offense, with Reimold and a healthy Markakis, improves modestly. If the SP struggles we could be in the neighbor hood of .500.I don't see 74 W unless there is a high degree of injury again this year.
:scratchchinhmm::scratchchinhmm::scratchchinhmm:
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.


×
×
  • Create New...