Orioles dropping Hardy from the 2 spot?

[CSB Jack]

Vs LH

McLouth LF

Reimold DH

Markakis RF

Jones CF

Davis 1B

Wieters C

Hardy SS

Machado 3B

2B

Vs Righties (with Betemit) (With Reimold = same as above)

McLouth LF

Markakis RF

Davis 1B

Jones CF

Wieters C

Hardy SS

Betemit DH

Machado 3B

2B

Would you really put three lefties in a row at the top of the order against RHP? That's just making it too easy to bring in a lefty reliever late in the game. And Betemit, with a career line against RHP of .281/.349/.474/.824 (even better numbers the past three years) at 7th behind Hardy? If Betemit is in the lineup he's got the numbers to be higher in the order. I think Hardy would do great hitting 7th pretty much regardless of the rest of the lineup that would be constructed from the likely roster.

[BobDylanBundy]

I'd go with....

Vs RHP

RF Markakis

2B Roberts

1B Davis

CF Jones

DH Betemit

LF Reimold

SS Hardy

C Wieters

3B Machado

Vs LHP

RF Markakis

LF Reimold

SS Hardy

CF Jones

C Wieters

3B Machado

1B Davis

DH Valencia

2B Roberts

[CA-ORIOLE]

Would you really put three lefties in a row at the top of the order against RHP? That's just making it too easy to bring in a lefty reliever late in the game. .

I've never understood this argument. Why not get your best hitter 3 AB's against the starting pitcher and maximize your runs scored early rather than worry about what's going to happen later in the game. If there really is an issue with a LHB not being able to hit a LHP (we have some LHB's who hit LHPs fairly well) then that's what you have your bench for.

[Ornithological]

Hardy should probably hit 9th against RHP (career .302/.413/.715), but I don't see Buck doing that. I have no problem with him hitting in the middle of the order against LHP (career .345/.468/.813). He is one of our best hitters against LHP.

I want Markakis hitting lead off. Wouldn't mind Roberts hitting from the 2 spot as long as he can still get on base a lot.

[Can_of_corn]

The Orioles have at least 10 million reasons why they, if it comes to it, want to stash Roberts on the bench if his OBP isn't as high as Hardy's last year.

The 10 million is gone anyway. The difference in cost between Roberts manning second and sitting at home is $490,000 minus whatever a guy at AAA makes.

[MurphDogg]

The Orioles have at least 10 million reasons why they, if it comes to it, want to stash Roberts on the bench if his OBP isn't as high as Hardy's last year.

Actually they have about 460,000 reasons or whatever the minimum is, because that is the cost of the player that would replace Roberts on the bench. The 10 million is a sunk cost.

[Number5]

How many runs do you think that will cost the team over the course of a season? I am guessing somewhere between zero and three. Jones isn't much of a basestealing threat and I think Wieters can get from first to third on a double.

I don't know about this. I think that you may be underestimating the impact of the new first-and-third balk rule. Having a guy that can get from first to third on a single hitting in front of Jones may very well turn out to be pretty important, IMO. You can bet that Jones would steal a lot more in those situations, seeing as how the new rule is practically giving him the base.

[Can_of_corn]

I think it occurs more often than you think. Wieters isn't just slow, he is very slow.

1. Wieters on first, Gapper to right-center. Wieters gets to third with Jones getting to 2nd. That works, but if the ball is hit to left-center or down the left field line, a better runner gets to third with Jones going to second. With Wieters on first, he is more likely to get held at second on that hit to left.

2. Wieters on second base and Jones on first. Groundball between 1st and 2nd. Wieters with his lack of speed gets held at 3rd, keeping Jones at 2nd. Instead of a runner in and runners on first and third, we have bases loaded.

Do you know who finished with the same score as Wieters in the James/BIS system? (James/BIS system is based on a system of pluses and minuses that measures both success as a base stealer and the ability to move up an extra base or score on things like a hit, sac fly, passed ball, wild pitch, balk or defensive indifference.)

[spoiler=Click Here]Markakis, both clocked in at a -13 net base gain in 2012.

I don't see anyone calling him a base clogger.

I don't know about this. I think that you may be underestimating the impact of the new first-and-third balk rule. Having a guy that can get from first to third on a single hitting in front of Jones may very well turn out to be pretty important, IMO. You can bet that Jones would steal a lot more in those situations, seeing as how the new rule is practically giving him the base.

Good point, you might be right.

[El Gordo]

The Orioles have at least 10 million reasons why they, if it comes to it, want to stash Roberts on the bench if his OBP isn't as high as Hardy's last year.

Roberts is no use to the team if he can't get on base, that's the key to his game. The 10 M is a sunk cost. If there's no chance of getting any value out of it it's best the releas him and go with Flaherty or make a trade. We can afford Hardy's poor OBP because of his defense and power at SS.

[Rene88]

Sunk cost or not Broberts sticks on this team for the good part of the season no matter what. Please see Kevin Gregg in 2012 for any questions/confusion on this matter.

[markakis8]

It's so amazing to me how many Orioles fans have completely written off BRob. I know the past 3 years have been awful but it's not b/c of a healthy, subpar performance. The man was riddled with injuries. He's the healthiest he's been in the past 3 years. Is he going to be the 2005-2008 Brian Roberts? Probably not, but I bet you he could put up a .280/.350/.400 season with 20 SB...his presence on the basepaths will be huge for us.

[markakis8]

Yes, unfortunately I do. Hardy's OBP was .282 last year, and I don't see Roberts being much or any better than that. Last year (in a small sample size), Roberts's OBP was .233. If you want to throw that out and go back to 2011, it was .273. You have to go back three years to find a respectable OBP from Roberts, but he has suffered about 3-4 different injuries since then and is now 35 years old.

Key word: "was." I think it's a mistake to assume Roberts will return to the player he used to be. I would at least stash him at the bottom of the lineup until he proves he can get on base consistently.

The injuries he had (or any injury for that matter) doesn't diminish your batting eye. Bat speed and strength? Sure. The previous two years he had around 250 PA, which combined with significant injuries, is hardly a sample size to take seriously.

He's the healthiest he has been in a while and is determined to prove his worth on a now winning team.

I don't blame people for not getting their hopes up, but to completely write him off and say something like he'll have an OBP of .280 is absurd. If healthy, I'm calling a season of .750 OPS.

[markakis8]

I don't think you give this word the same meaning Buck does. And why could you, you can't watch them play. It's more important how Roberts looks at the plate and the quality of his AB, bat speed etc, than any results he gets good or bad. Loss of bat speed holes in his swing, etc, will be clear in ST. If he isn't able to make adjustments, that will also be clear.

Well said.

[Norfolk orioles]

I like this lineup the best if Nolan is healthy.

1. Nolan

2. Markakis

3. Jones

4. Davis

5 Wieters

6. Hardy

7. Machado

8. Mclouth

9. Roberts

I like the 8-9-1 combo with all that speed.

That is also my optimal lineup only I'd change Reimold and Markakis up.

Markakis should be our leadoff hitter and get as many AB's as possible.

You could also switch McClouth to number 2 or plug in Betemit as DH when the pitching matchup calls for it.

Like others, I echo my sentiments that's I'd very much like to see Manny hitting higher in the lineup during our stretch run later in the year.

Also wouldn't mind seeing Hoes or Schoop leading off later in the year if they catch fire in the minors but that's probably just wishful thinking. And even if they did, I doubt Buck would immediately plug them in at the top of the lineup. But a man can wish can't he? Ha

[Norfolk orioles]

Yes, unfortunately I do. Hardy's OBP was .282 last year, and I don't see Roberts being much or any better than that. Last year (in a small sample size), Roberts's OBP was .233. If you want to throw that out and go back to 2011, it was .273. You have to go back three years to find a respectable OBP from Roberts, but he has suffered about 3-4 different injuries since then and is now 35 years old.

Key word: "was." I think it's a mistake to assume Roberts will return to the player he used to be. I would at least stash him at the bottom of the lineup until he proves he can get on base consistently.

Completely agree with this post. I expect nothing from Roberts this year and I literally mean nothing. If he even sees the field for us after making it out of spring training with a contract I will consider it a bonus.

35 year old leadoff hitters with a slew of injury problems do NOT make miraculous recoveries in MLB. Sorry, the examples of this happening throughout history are pretty much nil.

Hell Tejada was a MOO bat at SS for a decade and the decline he saw over his last few years was sharp and irreversible. Expecting anything other than nothing from Roberts this coming season is folly.

Best to lower all expectations and hopefully be surprised that to go in with even modest expectations and be disappointed. Roberts was a great Orioles and will always have a place in our hearts for working his butt off despite playing on some terrible terrible baseball teams. He was the heart and soul of the Orioles and always gave 100% even when everyone around him didnt seem to care. But unfortunately, his time has passed and he will have little to no contribution to this years team, just like last year.

Sincerely hope he is offered a FO position or assistant position going forward because I love the guy, but he's simply a shell of his former self as anyone with his combination of injuries and age would be.