Orioles dropping Hardy from the 2 spot?

[wildcard]

Vs. Righties:

1. Markakis

2. McLouth

3. Davis

4. Jones

5. Reimold/Betemit

6. Machado

7. Wieters

8. Hardy

9. Roberts

Vs. Lefties:

1. Markakis

2. Reimold

3. Wieters

4. Jones

5. Hardy

6. Machado

7. Valencia

8. Davis

9. Roberts

This is pretty close to what I think. I was for dropping Wieters in the lineup vs lefties until I realized how well he hits with runs in scoring position. Buck has been promoting that Wieters has turned into a RBI guy with his 83 RBIs last year. His hits with runners is scoring position played a big role in that.

Vs lefties (Opening Day lineup)

Markakis RF

Reimold LF

Jones CF

Davis 1B

Wieters C

Valencia or Canzler DH

Hardy SS

Machado 3B

Roberts 2B

Vs righties

Markakis RF

McLouth LF

Jones CF

Davis 1B

Wieters C

Betemit DH

Hardy SS

Machado 3B

Roberts 2B

I can see Machado moving up sometime during the year. Flaherty may replace Roberts in June.

[DrungoHazewood]

This is pretty close to what I think. I was for dropping Wieters in the lineup vs lefties until I realized how well he hits with runs in scoring position. Buck has been promoting that Wieters has turned into a RBI guy with his 83 RBIs last year. His hits with runners is scoring position played a big role in that.

My thoughts on Weiters batting third vs. lefties were that the #3 hole isn't as important as 1, 2, or 4 (more at bats than 2 or 4 with the bases empty and two outs), so really your 4th-best hitter should be batting third. Vs. lefties it's really a toss-up as to who's better than who among Reimold, Wieters, Jones, Hardy, maybe even Machado if he steps forward. So while that's the lineup I'd go with, any combination of those guys would probably result in differences too small to notice.

[Frobby]

I would much rather see the 60 extra ABs go to Markakis than B-Rob or Mclouth.

60 extra at bats compared to what? On average, each spot in the lineup will get 18 fewer plate appearances than the spot above it over a full season. So, let's say you've got a guy with a .390 OBP and a guy with a .340 OBP, and you are trying to decide who to bat first and who to bat second. By batting the .390 guy first, you get an OBP that is .050 higher over 18 extra at bats, which amount to .9 extra times on base over the season. It is a pretty trivial impact in terms of team OBP. Then you have to consider the advantage of having the faster runner start off the game and have more opportunity to use his legs to cause trouble for the opposition, by stealing, taking an extra base on a hit, etc. You could easily decide the offense will be more productive with the faster guy hitting leadoff, even if he has a lower OBP.

When you take a guy like Hardy with a .280 OBP and bat him 2nd instead of, say, 7th, you are giving him 90 extra plate appearances at a very low OBP and that has a pretty big impact over a season. But the difference between batting a .390 and a .340 guy 1-2 or 2-1 is quite minor.

[PaulFolk]

The injuries he had (or any injury for that matter) doesn't diminish your batting eye. Bat speed and strength? Sure. The previous two years he had around 250 PA, which combined with significant injuries, is hardly a sample size to take seriously.

And this is why his OBP is going to suffer. If Roberts has lost bat speed and strength, then he'll have trouble getting enough hits to post a respectable OBP. And if he can't hit, it doesn't matter much how good his batting eye is-- pitchers will just keep challenging him in the strike zone and he won't be drawing walks.

[DrungoHazewood]

And this is why his OBP is going to suffer. If Roberts has lost bat speed and strength, then he'll have trouble getting enough hits to post a respectable OBP. And if he can't hit, it doesn't matter much how good his batting eye is-- pitchers will just keep challenging him in the strike zone and he won't be drawing walks.

I've thought maybe if Roberts' bat speed is gone he should pick up a 40 ounce bat and remake himself as a contact hitter who just fouls off everything until he walks or hits a Texas Leaguer. But then I remember it's not 1928, major league baseball is really hard, and I have a lot of silly ideas.

If he plays 80 games and clears a .650 OPS I'll be pleasantly surprised.

[CSB Jack]

35 year old leadoff hitters with a slew of injury problems do NOT make miraculous recoveries in MLB. Sorry, the examples of this happening throughout history are pretty much nil.

It is my fervent hope that this holds true for 38 year old shortstops coming off a broken ankle, 37 year old slugging third basemen coming off hip surgery, and 43 year old closers coming off a torn ACL.

As for Roberts, while it is foolish to expect him to perform to his peak levels it is not outside the realm of possibility that he could perform to the level markakis8 said he expects. While I certainly don't expect that level I won't be shocked if he does it either, and if he can get on base at a .340 clip and OPS at .725 or better he could be a very valuable member of the team. My fear is that he isn't horrible but isn't really good enough to warrant keeping him in the lineup but he stays there anyway.

Because of the uncertainty, some would say improbability, of Roberts returning to near his previous level the front office stockpiled several alternative options. Any of them but Roberts is likely to be hitting ninth, at least early in the season. Roberts is likely to be hitting leadoff if he plays.

[brooksie05]

Absent of having read this thread in its entirety, but what about having Machado batting second?

[Can_of_corn]

Absent of having read this thread in its entirety, but what about having Machado batting second?

His OBP isn't high enough.