TT: Arrieta takes lead in 5th starter competition

[Frobby]

Id be happy if ANY of them win the job as long as they are good.

Now there is some wisdom. Me too, Roy. I don't care who gets the job, so long as he performs. That's my only rooting interest here.

[Rex Thunder]

At this point, if Arrieta can give us six good innings I'll take it! I think he's always going to be a high pitch count guy.

a la Eric Bedard...

[wildcard]

Jake looked very good with this pitches yesterday. However, he was pitching 2-0 a lot. Then he would come back and challenge the hitter. We also have to remember that he was pitching to Exposito who is not a bad catcher. But Wieters may have insisted that Jake stay in the strike zone more.

It was not the Jake couldn't throw strikes early in the count. It was that he didn't.

[Crazysilver03]

I think the next round of starts beginning this weekend will be really important. After that, the season is only about 10 days away and you have to choose five guys who you are going to allow to go 5-6 innings in their second-to-last outing. So, some choices have to be made by March 20 or so. If Jake goes 5 strong innings in his next outing, it will be hard to displace him as a practical matter.

10 days away, am I missing something? The first game of the season is Tuesday April 2nd, which is in 21 days.

[Mayor McCheese]

Jake looked very good with this pitches yesterday. However, he was pitching 2-0 a lot. Then he would come back and challenge the hitter. We also have to remember that he was pitching to Exposito who is not a bad catcher. But Wieters may have insisted that Jake stay in the strike zone more.

It was not the Jake couldn't throw strikes early in the count. It was that he didn't.

If he's not pitching to 2-0 counts, hes pitching to 0-2 counts and then proceeds to walk the batter.

Its the same old story with him. Send him down to AAA and make him work on command.

[Tony-OH]

So you don't think that Steve Johnson has a chance in the rotation?

Personally, I like Steve in the long relief role, which is why Hunter may end up expendable. I just get the feeling that the Orioles don't trust him in the 5th starter's role. His numbers last year say he should definitely be a candidate, but his track record inthe minors suggests he'll come back down to earth this year. Saying that, Johnson still has a chance for the rotation, but I think Arrieta and Britton will have to lose the job rather than Johnson winning the job.

[Tony-OH]

This just shows that it doesn't take much to put yourself in the lead for the 5th spot. 3 innings against Spain and 4 innings against the Pirates, where he threw first pitch strikes to 4 of 14 batters. Buck was smart enough to not put too much stock in that outing. Arrieta might be in the lead but it's by a hair over a whole bunch of guys. Britton, Matusz, Johnson, and even Jurrjens are still right in the mix.

You'll get no arguments from me though I don't see Jurrjens in the battle no matter what the Orioles say publicly. I also think the Orioles really want Matusz in the pen. They may not say it publicly, but unless he outshines everyone he's going to the pen.

[Tx Oriole]

If Arrieta continues to pitch well, that could raise his value in a trade.

If he is a good pitcher for the 5th spot in the rotation then why trade him? I want to see him succeed for the O's.

[Tony-OH]

Sorry Tony, hate to not agree with you, but I think Steve Johnson is in a better position. Really Gausman is in the lead for the 5th spot but wont get it due to other his clock and what not. If all things were equal you have Gausman, Johnson, Bundy, toss up between Matusz and Arrieta...:slytf:

If all things were equal, I think Gausman would definitely be in the running as well, but I think they want to give him some starts at Bowie before throwing him into the fire. Before his last appearances, he was mediocre at best so with his arbitration clock an issue as well, it makes sense to not consider him until June.

[vab]

I don't think any of these candidates is really distinguishing themselves. Might be best just to kind of play match-up with the 5th spot, at least until somebody really steps up and grabs it.

[Frobby]

10 days away, am I missing something? The first game of the season is Tuesday April 2nd, which is in 21 days.

My point is this: two pitchers can't pitch 5 innings in the same game. So, when you get to the part of spring training where you want your starters stretched out to 5+ IP to be ready for the season, you kind of have to decide who that's going to be. You can fudge it a little by sending some guys to pitch in MiL spring training, but I think when there are 10 spring training games left to play, they manager has to have a pretty good idea of what his Opening Day rotation is going to be so that the tentative top five will get the innings they need to be prepared.

[Grt 2BA FL Gator]

I also think the Orioles really want Matusz in the pen.

Clearly, I am showing myself to be a Matusz homer (Not even sure why I am, must have been romanced by that 2010 season), but for the O's, wouldn't it make more sense to at least try to reestablish his value as a starter? If it were me, I'd like for him to even go down to AAA and get stretched out if he doesn't win out the #5 job right now.

I like to think that the jury is still out on him as starter. He's young, had some real sustained success and may have regained some of the mental strength he lost from the massacre that was 2011.

Obviously that's all how I choose to look at it. I can understand how someone would look at the last two years and say the guy has had his chances.

But a big part of me feels like he has all the tools, he just hasn't been able to put it all together the last couple of years. I guess you could say that about him and Arrieta, but I think Brian has had more sustained success with his last 10 or so starts in 2010. Don't know if Arrieta has ever really had a stretch like that. He definitely hasn't had a complete season like Brian had in 2010.

Anyways, I can dream and he's the guy I'm rooting for. Just sad to hear that the O's really want him the pen. I know he can be valuable there, but I want to see him get another crack at the rotation.

[Tony-OH]

Clearly, I am showing myself to be a Matusz homer (Not even sure why I am, must have been romanced by that 2010 season), but for the O's, wouldn't it make more sense to at least try to reestablish his value as a starter? If it were me, I'd like for him to even go down to AAA and get stretched out if he doesn't win out the #5 job right now.

I like to think that the jury is still out on him as starter. He's young, had some real sustained success and may have regained some of the mental strength he lost from the massacre that was 2011.

Obviously that's all how I choose to look at it. I can understand how someone would look at the last two years and say the guy has had his chances.

But a big part of me feels like he has all the tools, he just hasn't been able to put it all together the last couple of years. I guess you could say that about him and Arrieta, but I think Brian has had more sustained success with his last 10 or so starts in 2010. Don't know if Arrieta has ever really had a stretch like that. He definitely hasn't had a complete season like Brian had in 2010.

Anyways, I can dream and he's the guy I'm rooting for. Just sad to hear that the O's really want him the pen. I know he can be valuable there, but I want to see him get another crack at the rotation.

Sure it would, I just think his best role is as a reliever. Here's his splits over his career:

 	Split 	       G 	 PA 	AB 	R 	H 	2B 	3B 	HR 	SB 	CS 	BB 	SO 	SO/BB 	BA 	OBP 	SLG 	OPS 	TB 	GDP 	HBP 	SH 	SF 	IBB 	ROE 	BAbip 	tOPS+1stPA in G, as SP 68 	614 	552 	58 	148 	26 	2 	19 	0 	1 	50 	124 	2.48 	.268 	.330 	.426 	.755 	235 	13 	3 	4 	5 	0 	11 	.312 	862nd PA in G, as SP 67 	570 	502 	88 	146 	33 	3 	22 	3 	2 	54 	100 	1.85 	.291 	.359 	.500 	.859 	251 	8 	3 	4 	7 	3 	4 	.320 	1103rd PA in G, as SP 59 	385 	350 	56 	111 	24 	2 	16 	2 	1 	32 	52 	1.63 	.317 	.375 	.534 	.909 	187 	3 	1 	1 	1 	4 	4 	.336 	1214th+ PA in G, as SP 17 	26 	21 	4 	8 	1 	0 	0 	0 	0 	3 	5 	1.67 	.381 	.458 	.429 	.887 	9 	0 	0 	2 	0 	0 	0 	.500 	1231st PA in G, as RP 18 	47 	44 	1 	5 	0 	0 	1 	0 	0 	3 	19 	6.33 	.114 	.170 	.182 	.352 	8 	1 	0 	0 	0 	1 	0 	.167 	-12

The more times a batters sees him the more success he has off Matusz.

I 	Split 	      G 	PA 	AB 	R 	H 	2B 	3B 	HR 	SB 	CS 	BB 	SO 	SO/BB 	BA 	OBP 	SLG 	OPS 	TB 	GDP 	HBP 	SH 	SF 	IBB 	ROE 	BAbip 	tOPS+Pitch 1-25 	86 	434 	391 	39 	108 	18 	0 	16 	0 	1 	33 	93 	2.82 	.276 	.333 	.445 	.778 	174 	8 	2 	4 	4 	1 	8 	.322 	90Pitch 26-50 	67 	421 	377 	56 	105 	21 	4 	13 	1 	1 	37 	71 	1.92 	.279 	.347 	.459 	.806 	173 	10 	4 	0 	3 	2 	5 	.311 	97Pitch 51-75 	65 	417 	365 	57 	103 	25 	0 	14 	2 	2 	43 	76 	1.77 	.282 	.354 	.466 	.820 	170 	5 	0 	5 	4 	2 	2 	.319 	101Pitch 76-100 	57 	327 	297 	46 	90 	17 	2 	13 	2 	0 	25 	54 	2.16 	.303 	.357 	.505 	.862 	150 	2 	1 	2 	2 	2 	4 	.332 	110Pitch 101+ 	19 	43 	39 	9 	12 	3 	1 	2 	0 	0 	4 	6 	1.50 	.308 	.372 	.590 	.962 	23 	0 	0 	0 	0 	1 	0 	.323 	132

After 75 pitches, Matusz becomes very hittable.

 	Split 	             W 	L 	W-L% 	ERA 	G 	GS 	GF 	CG 	SHO 	SV 	IP 	H 	R 	ER 	HR 	BB 	IBB 	SO 	HBP 	BK 	WP 	BF 	WHIP 	SO/9 	SO/BBas Starter 	21 	33 	.389 	5.51 	68 	68 	0 	0 	0 	0 	354.2 	413 	231 	217 	57 	139 	7 	281 	7 	0 	1 	1595 	1.556 	7.1 	2.02as Reliever 	1 	0 	1.000 	1.35 	18 	0 	2 	0 	0 	0 	13.1 	5 	2 	2 	1 	3 	1 	19 	0 	0 	0 	47 	0.600 	12.8 	6.33

Obviously these are under small sample size as a reliever, but when you take his lack of effectiveness the longer he's out there, the more it appears that his best role is in the bullpen.

[wildcard]

More "Wieters is God". Enough already.

It was pretty evident that Jake's problem throwing strikes early in the count was mental not physical. Because he could throw strikes when he had to. Like it or not Wieters is the O's field general and he may have been able to affect whether Jake applied himself to throw strikes earlier in the count.

[SrMeowMeow]

Wieters is God. I...I don't understand...