HHP: Tracking the Fifth Starter Competition

[Rene88]

Do Steve Johnson and Hunter coexist in that scenario?

[Frobby]

Trying to guess along with Buck regarding the four "presumptive" starters.

Hammel pitched on March 17. Work on March 22 and 27 puts him on schedule for Opening Day. We play AL East opponents on both of those days, so I guess he keeps Hammel under wraps.

Chen pitched on March 18. Work on March 23 and 28 lines him up to be the no. 2 starter. The March 23 game is with the Phillies in Sarasota, and none of Matusz/Arrieta/Britton/Johnson will go that day. If Chen starts that day, it could mean the end of Jurrjens' candidacy for the rotation.

Tillman pitched on March 19, so work on the 24th and 29th would line him up as no. 3. Those games are vs. Pittsburgh and an exhibition vs. State College of Florida. If Tillman pitches on the 24th, that knocks Matusz off his regular day, maybe he pitches in a MiL game.

Gonzalez pitched on March 16, so he's currently due for work on the 21st and 26th, but then he could be sitting around for quite a while the way things are lined up. The O's already announced Arrieta for the 21st, so I guess Gonzo pitches at Twin Lakes again. The the 26th is against the Twins and he could start that game. Logically, whoever starts on March 30 vs. the Mets is lined up to be the 4th starter. Right now Britton lines up for that day, but if Tillman pitches Sunday, they could bump Matusz back to Monday and then he'd be lined up for it, too.

It seems to me like one week from today, March 26, is the latest Buck can go before he makes his decision. And just looking at the timing of things, I think it's likely to be Britton or Matusz, who will be lined up to take the final exhibition start on March 30 vs. the Mets and then pitch the home opener on April 5.

[ChuckS]

Do Steve Johnson and Hunter coexist in that scenario?

I would think so: JJ, O'Day, Strop, Patton, Ayala, Hunter, and S. Jonnson. Unless I am forgetting someone, that should be your seven.

[Frobby]

I would think so: JJ, O'Day, Strop, Patton, Ayala, Hunter, and S. Jonnson. Unless I am forgetting someone, that should be your seven.

Depends if Buck wants to go with only one lefty in the pen, which isn't ideal, but worked for most of 2012.

[Frobby]

I think if the #5 starter is a lefty, it may be easier to get away with just 1 lefty in the 'pen.

Buck has made that point a few times, you're right.

[El Gordo]

I think the 5th SP will be LH, and I think there will be two LH RP in the pen.

[wildcard]

I would think so: JJ, O'Day, Strop, Patton, Ayala, Hunter, and S. Jonnson. Unless I am forgetting someone, that should be your seven.

I don't see the O's returning McFarland if he continues to pitch well. I think he is the 2nd lefty in the pen. Johnson starts the year at AAA.

Buck keeps talking about having flexibility in the pitching staff. The options aren't the the pen. They are with the 5th starter. I think we may see a shuttle with Norfolk with the 5th starter involved when needed.

[wildcard]

By the way, I didn't include Jurjjens on my list, because I can't tell if he's really under consideration. I'd say if he doesn't start this weekend, he's clearly not being considered. If he does start this weekend (Saturday would be the likely day, with Matusz going on Sunday), then I'll amend the OP to include him.

By the way, there are only 11 days left in spring training, meaning that Arrieta, Johnson and Matusz are going to get at most two more starts. Theoretically, Britton could get three, including his start tomorrow. But my guess is we might see the O's start working Hammel/Chen/Gonzalez/Tillman into some of these games, especially the four games vs. non-AL East opponents. I wouldn't be surprised to see Buck tip his hand after Friday's game, by which time he'll have had one more look at Britton, Arrieta and Johnson.

There are only 10 Grapefruit league games left. The games against the Manatees isn't a Grapefruit league game. Buck is only likely to pitch Hammel/Chen/Tillman/Gonzo in three of the games = Phillies, Pirates, and Mets. Buck said he would not pitch any of them vs the Twins since the O's play them the first week on the regular season.

[scOtt]

I think Matusz is going to win the fifth starter competition and get one last chance as a starter. It makes sense because if they put him in a relief role immediately and he is great there again, he likely stays in the bullpen. I think the organization wants to see what they have in Matusz as a starter. It will help his trade value if we decide to move him and make it easier to deal from our surplus of starting pitchers in the future.

I think Steve Johnson will get the seventh bullpen spot as the long man/swing starter. That leaves Arietta, Britton, and Jurjens getting regular starts in AAA. The best of the bunch gets the first call up. I'm sure everyone will get a shot at some point, but this is how I see it playing out to start the season.

You had me til your second paragraph! Steve Johnson is nothing and destined for Norfolk as backup. I just DO NOT see what you all see in him. He's his old man. Barely....

I think Matusz is the fifth starter and McFarland is in the pen. He's our project this year and I think he sticks.

[wildcard]

You had me til your second paragraph! Steve Johnson is nothing and destined for Norfolk as backup. I just DO NOT see what you all see in him. He's his old man. Barely....

I think Matusz is the fifth starter and McFarland is in the pen. He's our project this year and I think he sticks.

I think Steve Johnson is a major league pitcher. Maybe even a ML starter. Three things are hurting his changes to make the team out of ST.

1) He has options

2) There are too many starters

3) He is not lefthanded

[scOtt]

I think Steve Johnson is a major league pitcher. Maybe even a ML starter. Three things are hurting his changes to make the team out of ST.

1) He has options

2) There are too many starters

3) He is not lefthanded

Call me contrary but I just don't see it. He deserves all props for the stellar numbers he has posted but I just yawn.

[Frobby]

There are only 10 Grapefruit league games left. The games against the Manatees isn't a Grapefruit league game. Buck is only likely to pitch Hammel/Chen/Tillman/Gonzo in three of the games = Phillies, Pirates, and Mets. Buck said he would not pitch any of them vs the Twins since the O's play them the first week on the regular season.

Because of the timing, I think you'll see a major league starter start against the Manatees -- probably Tillman in his final tuneup. That's why I counted it.

[wildcard]

Because of the timing, I think you'll see a major league starter start against the Manatees -- probably Tillman in his final tuneup. That's why I counted it.

You are probably right, but they should not be much of a test for any of the O's starters.

[Frobby]

You are probably right, but they should not be much of a test for any of the O's starters.

No doubt. They'd probably get more of a test pitching at Twin Lakes -- and in fact, maybe Buck will do that, and let the Manatees face Zach Clark or someone like that.

[Frobby]

Trying to guess along with Buck regarding the four "presumptive" starters.

Hammel pitched on March 17. Work on March 22 and 27 puts him on schedule for Opening Day. We play AL East opponents on both of those days, so I guess he keeps Hammel under wraps.

Chen pitched on March 18. Work on March 23 and 28 lines him up to be the no. 2 starter. The March 23 game is with the Phillies in Sarasota, and none of Matusz/Arrieta/Britton/Johnson will go that day. If Chen starts that day, it could mean the end of Jurrjens' candidacy for the rotation.

Tillman pitched on March 19, so work on the 24th and 29th would line him up as no. 3. Those games are vs. Pittsburgh and an exhibition vs. State College of Florida. If Tillman pitches on the 24th, that knocks Matusz off his regular day, maybe he pitches in a MiL game.

Gonzalez pitched on March 16, so he's currently due for work on the 21st and 26th, but then he could be sitting around for quite a while the way things are lined up. The O's already announced Arrieta for the 21st, so I guess Gonzo pitches at Twin Lakes again. The the 26th is against the Twins and he could start that game. Logically, whoever starts on March 30 vs. the Mets is lined up to be the 4th starter. Right now Britton lines up for that day, but if Tillman pitches Sunday, they could bump Matusz back to Monday and then he'd be lined up for it, too.

It seems to me like one week from today, March 26, is the latest Buck can go before he makes his decision. And just looking at the timing of things, I think it's likely to be Britton or Matusz, who will be lined up to take the final exhibition start on March 30 vs. the Mets and then pitch the home opener on April 5.

Well, scrap my plan, because Gonzalez is pitching in Twin Lakes today. That lines him up to be the 4th starter, and puts him in the hunt to pitch next Monday, which is the same as Britton's normal day.