HHP: Tracking the Fifth Starter Competition

[weams]

I wont sticky this but I am sure it will stay up near the top for the next two weeks. Great work. HHP.

[luismatos4prez]

You had me til your second paragraph! Steve Johnson is nothing and destined for Norfolk as backup. I just DO NOT see what you all see in him.

Nobody sees the invisiball. Personally, I'm endorsing him as a swing man. And Matusz for the rotation.

[LookitsPuck]

We just get lit up by the Blue Jays, it seems.

That said, Britton didn't help his cause at all. Walked 2, 7 hits, threw a ton of pitches, 6 earned runs. Just bad all around.

[blid]

Is a healthy Tillman a lock for the rotation? No chance if he's not looking good he gets bumped to make room for Matusz + Arrieta/Johnson/Britton/Gausman (okay, not Gausman) or something?

[Mayor McCheese]

Is a healthy Tillman a lock for the rotation? No chance if he's not looking good he gets bumped to make room for Matusz + Arrieta/Johnson/Britton/Gausman (okay, not Gausman) or something?

Yes Tillman is a lock for the rotation.

[Il BuonO]

Trying to guess along with Buck regarding the four "presumptive" starters.

Hammel pitched on March 17. Work on March 22 and 27 puts him on schedule for Opening Day. We play AL East opponents on both of those days, so I guess he keeps Hammel under wraps.

Chen pitched on March 18. Work on March 23 and 28 lines him up to be the no. 2 starter. The March 23 game is with the Phillies in Sarasota, and none of Matusz/Arrieta/Britton/Johnson will go that day. If Chen starts that day, it could mean the end of Jurrjens' candidacy for the rotation.

Tillman pitched on March 19, so work on the 24th and 29th would line him up as no. 3. Those games are vs. Pittsburgh and an exhibition vs. State College of Florida. If Tillman pitches on the 24th, that knocks Matusz off his regular day, maybe he pitches in a MiL game.

Gonzalez pitched on March 16, so he's currently due for work on the 21st and 26th, but then he could be sitting around for quite a while the way things are lined up. The O's already announced Arrieta for the 21st, so I guess Gonzo pitches at Twin Lakes again. The the 26th is against the Twins and he could start that game. Logically, whoever starts on March 30 vs. the Mets is lined up to be the 4th starter. Right now Britton lines up for that day, but if Tillman pitches Sunday, they could bump Matusz back to Monday and then he'd be lined up for it, too.

It seems to me like one week from today, March 26, is the latest Buck can go before he makes his decision. And just looking at the timing of things, I think it's likely to be Britton or Matusz, who will be lined up to take the final exhibition start on March 30 vs. the Mets and then pitch the home opener on April 5.

I wonder after this outing for Britton if this scenario is closer to happening now. He couldn't have helped his cause any.

[Sanfran327]

I can't understand how Britton is still getting shelled like this. IMO, he's out of the 5th starter race.

[B-more]

Well Matusz looks to be leading the pack so far. Arrieta is probably still in it. Britton getting shelled today shouldn't completely preclude him, but he had not yet gone 4 innings yet and today's outing adds to that problem compared to the other guys. So Britton is probably behind the other 2 going forward.

I think if things continue about the same for Matusz and Arrieta, the fact that Matusz is throwing tons strikes compared to Arrieta who is getting good results but still showing some command issues will put him behind Matusz.

Personally I am pulling for Matusz because he does seem to be carrying over his attacking the zone mentality he displayed in the bullpen over to his starts in spring training. I also think, it would be wise to give him one more shot to prove whether he can handle starting before going to bullpen. It would be easier to move him to bullpen if he struggles as a starter than moving to starting from the bullpen.

[JayThomas]

I think Matusz is the fifth starter and McFarland is in the pen. He's our project this year and I think he sticks.

I've been saying this all along. I think Buck wants to make Matusz force him to start him. Tough love. But I think that deep down this is the scenario that Buck wants to happen as well. I think he wants to keep McFarland.

[Orioles0615]

According to Roch

"Britton has allowed 10 runs and 17 hits in six games covering 12 1/3 innings."

That is not looking good for him.

[clapdiddy]

According to Roch

"Britton has allowed 10 runs and 17 hits in six games covering 12 1/3 innings."

That is not looking good for him.

Nope. Fortunately, he has an option, so it's not a big deal. Kind of disappointing that he hasn't stepped it up a bit in pursuit of this job. Personally, he was the guy I WANTED to win the job.

[Frobby]

Well Matusz looks to be leading the pack so far. Arrieta is probably still in it. Britton getting shelled today shouldn't completely preclude him, but he had not yet gone 4 innings yet and today's outing adds to that problem compared to the other guys. So Britton is probably behind the other 2 going forward.

I think if things continue about the same for Matusz and Arrieta, the fact that Matusz is throwing tons strikes compared to Arrieta who is getting good results but still showing some command issues will put him behind Matusz.

Personally I am pulling for Matusz because he does seem to be carrying over his attacking the zone mentality he displayed in the bullpen over to his starts in spring training. I also think, it would be wise to give him one more shot to prove whether he can handle starting before going to bullpen. It would be easier to move him to bullpen if he struggles as a starter than moving to starting from the bullpen.

I don't like to hold one bad outing against anyone, but in this case, I think it may have doomed Britton's chances. As you pointed out, he has yet to complete 4 innings in a game. I think he's about out of time.

[crissfan172]

I didn't have a strong preference between Britton or Matusz before, but I'm starting to lean towards Brian at this point.

[isestrex]

Thought it might be nice to have a game log for the four main candidates. I will try to keep this up to date. Road games are marked with an asterisk since the lineups are usually tougher (because the regulars don't travel as much).

Brian Matusz

2/25: 2.0 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 1 K's

3/02: 2.0 IP, 2 H, 3 R, 3 ER, 1 BB, 1 K*

3/08: 2.0 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 2 K's*

3/13: 4.0 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 1 BB, 7 K's*

3/19: 5.0 IP, 6 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 1 BB, 2 K's*

Jake Arrieta

2/23: 1.0 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 1 BB, 0 K's

2/27: 1.2 IP, 2 H, 3 R, 3 ER, 2 BB, 0 K's*

3/06: 3.0 IP, 3 H, 1 R, 0 ER, 1 BB, 2 K's (Team Spain exhibition)

3/11: 4.0 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 2 BB, 5 K's*

3/16: 4.2 IP, 3 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 3 BB, 2 K's*

Zach Britton

2/23: 1.0 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 0 K's

2/27: 2.0 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 3 K's

3/06: 2.0 IP, 4 H, 3 R, 3 ER, 1 BB, 1 K (Team Spain exhibition)

3/11: 2.0 IP, 1 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 0 BB, 2 K's*

3/15: 3.2 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 2 BB, 1 K

3/20: 1.2 IP, 7 H, 5 R, 5 ER, 2 BB, 1 K

Steve Johnson

2/23: 1.0 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 1 BB, 0 K's

2/27: 2.0 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 1 BB, 3 K's*

3/05: 2.0 IP, 2 H, 2 R, 2 ER, 1 BB, 2 K's*

3/12: [intrasquad game, results not reported]

3/17: 4.0 IP, 3 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 1 BB, 2 K's

K/BB

Matusz 4.3

Arrieta 1.0

Britton 1.6

Johnson 1.75

One of these things is not like the other...

[weams]

K/BB

Matusz 4.3

Arrieta 1.0

Britton 1.6

Johnson 1.75

One of these things is not like the other...

So you're saying what, that we should make him a closer ...