Jake Arrieta going to be fifth starter surmises Roch (No Orioles Confirmation)

[UpstateNYfan]

I don't buy it. What if McFarland pitches 5 perfect innings, they're going to send him back? They're going to send Matusz down to keep him?

This line of reasoning amazes me. When McFarland started camp most here (maybe not you) saw him as a no chance guy based on his early performances. For some when a pitcher has a good ST outing it is met with "well it is ST" or "they were playing under the lights", etc, etc, etc. Now if McFarland pitches well in the next ST outing somehow becomes more legitimate than others performances. I do think McFarland stays and not at the expense of either JA or BM.

[Rene88]

I think we need to cut some dead weight in Matusz and Arrieta and trade for Kevin Gregg and Dannys Baez! Who is with me?!!

[Tx Oriole]

Jake Arrieta will be named the fifth starter according to Roch. What do you do think? Did Buck make the correct move here? As we all know' date=' Jake might not be the fifth starter for very long and could end up in Norfolk in a hurry.

Here is a link to Roch's blog article:

[url']http://www.masnsports.com/school_of_roch/2013/03/notes-and-quotes-following-todays-13-4-loss.html[/url]

That is fine by me. I do believe Jake will be fine as the number 5. IMO

[Tx Oriole]

If he is, I bet it's not for long.

Wow. You that sure Jake will fail as the 5?

[LookinUp]

This line of reasoning amazes me. When McFarland started camp most here (maybe not you) saw him as a no chance guy based on his early performances. For some when a pitcher has a good ST outing it is met with "well it is ST" or "they were playing under the lights", etc, etc, etc. Now if McFarland pitches well in the next ST outing somehow becomes more legitimate than others performances. I do think McFarland stays and not at the expense of either JA or BM.

You may be placing greater importance on the opening day roster than DD or Buck will. Last year we went to significant lengths to keep Flaherty around. If McFarland is pitching well, there's no reason to think that we won't do what it takes to keep him in the org. That means we 1) trade for him, which would allow us to demote him or 2) simply send one of the other worthy pitchers to the minors. That could be Arrieta so he can work as a starter, or it could be someone like Hunter. DD will manage the roster, tell guys they'll get their shot and basically say deal with it like a man.

The chances that Hammel, Chen (who hasn't looked great), Tillman (was injured), Gonzalez and our 5th starter all stay healthy and effective are small, so it's not like a demotion is the end of the world for any of these guys.

[El Gordo]

This line of reasoning amazes me. When McFarland started camp most here (maybe not you) saw him as a no chance guy based on his early performances. For some when a pitcher has a good ST outing it is met with "well it is ST" or "they were playing under the lights", etc, etc, etc. Now if McFarland pitches well in the next ST outing somehow becomes more legitimate than others performances. I do think McFarland stays and not at the expense of either JA or BM.

If they didn't think McFarland had real value he wouldn't have been their rule 5. If they didn't think he was progressing well they wouldn't be sticking with him. And if it was as much of a surety as you seem to think, that he won't make the team, they certainly wouldn't be starting him Mon. and sending Britton down to do it. Of course the ST numbers don't matter. What matters is what they see, not what's in the box score. McFarland made some adjustments they suggested early, and since then he's looked very good. If he does well Mon. I think the team is better off keeping him for now, and letting Jake go to Norfolk until he's needed.

[Crazysilver03]

If they didn't think McFarland had real value he wouldn't have been their rule 5. If they didn't think he was progressing well they wouldn't be sticking with him. And if it was as much of a surety as you seem to think, that he won't make the team, they certainly wouldn't be starting him Mon. and sending Britton down to do it. Of course the ST numbers don't matter. What matters is what they see, not what's in the box score. McFarland made some adjustments they suggested early, and since then he's looked very good. If he does well Mon. I think the team is better off keeping him for now, and letting Jake go to Norfolk until he's needed.

These two things don't really relate to each other. Britton was being sent down regardless. TJ hasn't really faced major league competition this spring so this is hopefully a chance to get him to see major league hitting.

[Il BuonO]

McFarland made some adjustments they suggested early, and since then he's looked very good. If he does well Mon. I think the team is better off keeping him for now, and letting Jake go to Norfolk until he's needed.

I don't think this is necessarily the case. If he does well someone else may be traded. They could even stash Jake in the pen and give Matusz the chance to start and if he fails move him to the pen and slide Jake into the 5th spot.

[Crazysilver03]

There is always the possibility that someone like Tillman could start the year on the DL, so he could go down to Norfolk and get some innings in, allowing both Arrieta and Matusz to make the major league roster. Wasn't he supposed to face the major leaguers today instead of Matusz, but that got switched around? As long as he doesn't face major league competition, his DL stint can be retro-dated.

[wildcard]

This is the part everyone should take a look at. McFarland's splits were better against RH hitters than LH hitters in AAA. Some people talk about him replacing Patton or Matusz in the bullpen but he looks to be anything but a lefty specialist (not that Patton or Matusz really are as relievers). In a very SSS McFarland once again this spring, has had most of his trouble against LH hitters. For whatever reason, his stuff seems to play better against RH hitters. Maybe his staple, the sinker, runs away from RH's and back into LH's? I don't know. Haven't seen enough of him.

McFarland has not allow any run this spring since Adair had him make a mechanical adjustment. So the lefty/righty split would be the same since then.

Could you point me at McFarland's minor league splits? I can't find them.

I think Monday's start will be big for McFarland if it happen against Boston's major leaguers.

[UpstateNYfan]

You may be placing greater importance on the opening day roster than DD or Buck will. Last year we went to significant lengths to keep Flaherty around. If McFarland is pitching well, there's no reason to think that we won't do what it takes to keep him in the org. That means we 1) trade for him, which would allow us to demote him or 2) simply send one of the other worthy pitchers to the minors. That could be Arrieta so he can work as a starter, or it could be someone like Hunter. DD will manage the roster, tell guys they'll get their shot and basically say deal with it like a man.

The chances that Hammel, Chen (who hasn't looked great), Tillman (was injured), Gonzalez and our 5th starter all stay healthy and effective are small, so it's not like a demotion is the end of the world for any of these guys.

Refer to what I wrote on first page of thread.

[wildcard]

Minoreleaguebaseball.com used to show he splits for the last team they played on, which in his case, was the Columbus Clippers in the Inernational League last year. Not sure why they don't show that feature right now but you'll have to take my word for it unless someone else can find it. His splits were significantly better verses RH batters.

Thanks RZ

[El Gordo]

I don't think this is necessarily the case. If he does well someone else may be traded. They could even stash Jake in the pen and give Matusz the chance to start and if he fails move him to the pen and slide Jake into the 5th spot.

If you send Jake down you don't have to trade anyone. Is the guy you are getting in trade worth it? The point is we lose nothing by keeping McFarland and sending Jake down. Keep Jake on the team and we have to give up something. Sure Jake is great on those rare days he has command but the question is the rarity of those days. I'd like to see him string together 5 starts in a row in Norfolk, where he didn't walk more than two.

[weams]

Matusz roughed up just a bit today.

[weams]

Brian with 22 pitches 16 strikes through one.