Interesting Blyleven stats

[DrungoHazewood]

I think I've made it quite clear that I'm not big on W/L records, but I have to agree that over the course of a 20-year career wins is a pretty telling stat. I don't necessarily agree it is the best stat, but it does mean a lot. Let's face it, in order to win 287 games you have to be good enough to have been given the opportunity to win that many games.

Here's another take on what you posted earlier Frobby about Blyleven being the only one of the top 11 in Ks who isn't in the hall (yet another reason it is outlandish that he isn't a HOFer). Look at the all time wins list. Now remove everyone who pitched all of his games prior to 1950. Blyleven is 13th amongst the remaining pitchers. Now remove the three who were still active in 2007. Of the 10 remaining pitchers, only Tommy John and Blyleven aren't in the HOF. Before anyone asks, I don't think TJ should be in the hall (primarily because he padded his wins total by pitching until he was 46).

The original post mentioned normalizing BB's career stats. His record changes to 325-227-3.37 from the actual 287-250-3.31.

Frobby mentioned Nolan Ryan. His normalized record is 320-259-3.62 vice an actual of 324-292-3.19.

Now let's pick on Don Sutton. 309-260-3.71 vice 324-256-3.26.

Look how much the W/L record for Blyleven changed compared to the other two. Look how much their ERAs changed (by 0.43 and 0.45 earned runs respectively) compared to Blyleven's (only 0.06 earned runs). If Nolan Ryan and Don Sutton belong in the HOF, so does Bert Blyleven.

This next statement is definitely a bit of hyperbole (and I don't think I really feel this way), but here goes:

Any writer who hasn't voted for Bert Blyleven to be enshrined in the HOF needs to be investigated to ensure he/she should be allowed to vote in future elections.

That Bert Blyleven isn't in the HOF is the greatest travesty of any eligible person not yet voted in.

This tells you how normalization works.

Pretty much what he said. Blyleven is clearly better than an average HOF pitcher. Inducting him raises the standards Cooperstown has set.

There are starting pitchers already in the Hall who were his peers who aren't in the same time zone as Blyleven. Catfish Hunter, he of the cool nickname and great teammates, pitched 1500 fewer innings to an ERA+ that isn't close to Blyleven, while striking out 1700 fewer batters and giving up nearly as many home runs.

[Ruzious]

He's gotta be one of the all-time hard-luck pitchers. People say he was never dominant and just had great career stats because he lasted so long. But it's not true. He did have longevity, but he was a major league phenom starting at age 19. He was 136-123 for his career... at age 27... and never had an ERA over 3.18 in that span - his rookie year. It's a joke that he got criticised for losing 1-0 and 2-1 games. When a guy goes 20-17 on a 2.50's ERA throwing 325 innings... he is most definitely a dominant pitcher. The fact that he had very poor run support was completely out of his control, so I'm not comprehending how people hold that against him.

[Moose Milligan]

Pretty much what he said. Blyleven is clearly better than an average HOF pitcher. Inducting him raises the standards Cooperstown has set.

There are starting pitchers already in the Hall who were his peers who aren't in the same time zone as Blyleven. Catfish Hunter, he of the cool nickname and great teammates, pitched 1500 fewer innings to an ERA+ that isn't close to Blyleven, while striking out 1700 fewer batters and giving up nearly as many home runs.

So why do you think Catfish is in? I'm assuming because he was a part of the A's clubs in the early 70's and then the Yankees teams...

If Blyleven was on the same teams, I'm sure he'd be in, too.

[Frobby]

That Bert Blyleven isn't in the HOF is the greatest travesty of any eligible person not yet voted in.

And I hope its clear that I wasn't arguing against him in my initial post. I was merely pointing out that the way the blogger had described Blyleven's record in those "quality" starts was misleading.

I have some mixed feelings about Blyleven, but overall it certainly wouldn't bother me to see him elected. He's certainly better than several pitchers already in the HOF.

[RShack]

I have some mixed feelings about Blyleven, but overall it certainly wouldn't bother me to see him elected. He's certainly better than several pitchers already in the HOF.

I agree with the first part.

However, using the last sentence as a basis for a HOF decision about anybody is a very slippery slope.

[Frobby]

I agree with the first part.

However, using the last sentence as a basis for a HOF decision about anybody is a very slippery slope.

Yes, it is.

[Moose Milligan]

Frobby, what mixed feelings do you have with him?

[Migrant Redbird]

Darn!

You must spread some reputation around before giving it to Frobby again.

I suspect that if someone would do the work (I have no intention of doing it.), they'd find some other "hard luck" pitchers like Blyleven with cherry picked stats almost as impressive.

That said, you've all convinced me. If I had a HOF ballot to cast, he'd get a vote from me.

[furryburres]

Darn!

I suspect that if someone would do the work (I have no intention of doing it.), they'd find some other "hard luck" pitchers like Blyleven with cherry picked stats almost as impressive.

That said, you've all convinced me. If I had a HOF ballot to cast, he'd get a vote from me.

I'm sorry, but we're fresh out of those. We do have a new shipment of gold stars coming, though.

[Frobby]

Frobby, what mixed feelings do you have with him?

1. I believe that his .534 wining percentage is lower than any pitcher in the HOF. I realize that it's not his fault if his teams were bad, but still, most great pitchers find a way to win a higher percentage of their games even if they are on a bad team.

2. His ERA+ of 118 is very good, but its not so great that is makes an automatic case for the HOF. He ranks 134th in that category.

That is not to say I'm against him, I'm just not outraged that he isn't in.

[mweb]

1. I believe that his .534 wining percentage is lower than any pitcher in the HOF. I realize that it's not his fault if his teams were bad, but still, most great pitchers find a way to win a higher percentage of their games even if they are on a bad team.

2. His ERA+ of 118 is very good, but its not so great that is makes an automatic case for the HOF. He ranks 134th in that category.

That is not to say I'm against him, I'm just not outraged that he isn't in.

Well Glavine has a 119 ERA+, same for Fingers, Spahn has a 118, Gaylord Perry has a 117, Eck a 116, Carlton a 115, Nolan Ryan a 111.

Concerning the wins, does anyone know where to find out what a pitcher's teams winning % was over the course of his career? I think that's a pretty good stat when focusing on wins.

[Migrant Redbird]

Well Glavine has a 119 ERA+, same for Fingers, Spahn has a 118, Gaylord Perry has a 117, Eck a 116, Carlton a 115, Nolan Ryan a 111.

Spahn and Blyleven are tied for 134th on the career ERA+ list, but a lot of that has to do with their incredible longevity. Any pitcher who hangs around a long time will inevitably lower his ERA+ a little at the end of his career, unless he's using some form of PEDs to counteract the effects of aging.

So, realistically, if we're going to use ERA+ as a criteria for assessing who deserves to be in the HOF, we should adjust it for the length of a pitcher's career. Guys who pitch into their forties should get credit for that over pitchers who bail out at age 30 (Koufax) or 31 (Dizzy Dean) but post a higher career ERA+.

I downloaded all the pitchers with career ERA+ of 110 or higher and the top 300 pitchers based on career innings pitched, then combined the two rankings for a composite score. Below is what I came up with; I make no brief for it being definitive. [Edit: Somehow, Lefty Grove got lost amongst the spreadsheet shuffling and notepad formatting. I inserted Lefty at #8 and moved everyone else down. I corrected the leftmost column for overall rank, but fixing the three right columns would have involved an incredible amount of reformatting. They're still mostly correct relative to each other, except that the shifting of the relative rankings down has not been accomplished.]

                         Adjusted           RANK    RANK  ADJUSTED RANK       Player           ERA   Innings   ERA+  INNINGS   SCORE1     Walter Johnson+       147   5914.7      3       3        62     Cy Young+             138   7354.7     16       1       173     Roger Clemens         143   4916.7      9      15       244     Kid Nichols+          140   5056.3     15      11       265     Pete Alexander+       135   5190       21      10       316     Greg Maddux           134   4814.3     24      16       407     Christy Mathewson+    135   4780.7     22      19       418     Lefty Grove+*         148   3940.7      2      42       449     John Clarkson+        134   4536.3     25      23       4810    Tim Keefe+            127   5047.7     43      12       5511    Tom Seaver+           127   4782.7     44      18       6212    Randy Johnson*        138   3855.3     17      46       6313    Bob Gibson+           127   3884.3     45      44       8914    Amos Rusie+           129   3769.7     39      51       9015    Jim Palmer+           126   3948       54      41       9516    Carl Hubbell+*        130   3590.3     35      61       9617    Eddie Plank+*         122   4495.7     84      28      11218    Mordecai Brown+       138   3172.3     18     106      12419    John Smoltz           127   3367       46      83      12920    Bob Feller+           122   3827       85      48      13321    Whitey Ford+*         133   3170.3     27     107      13422    Ed Walsh+             146   2964.3      4     135      13923    Charley Radbourn+     119   4535.3    118      24      14224    Kevin Brown           127   3256.3     47      95      14225    Warren Spahn+*        118   5243.7    134       8      14226    Juan Marichal+        123   3507.3     77      69      14627    Bert Blyleven         118   4970      135      13      14828    Tom Glavine*          119   4350      119      31      15029    Gaylord Perry+        117   5350.3    151       6      15730    Red Faber+            119   4086.7    120      38      15831    Al Spalding+          142   2890.7     11     148      15932    Rube Waddell+*        135   2961.3     23     138      16133    Tony Mullane          118   4531.3    136      25      16134    Stan Coveleski+       127   3082       48     118      16635    Don Drysdale+         121   3432       93      77      17036    Mike Mussina          122   3362.3     86      84      17037    Jim McCormick         118   4275.7    137      34      17138    Will White            120   3542.7    107      67      17439    Clark Griffith+       121   3385.7     94      81      17540    Eddie Cicotte         123   3223.3     78      97      17541    Ted Lyons+            118   4161      138      37      17542    Vic Willis+           118   3996      139      40      17943    Joe McGinnity+        120   3441.3    108      75      18344    Phil Niekro+          115   5404.3    185       4      18945    Pedro Martinez        161   2673.7      1     189      19046    Dazzy Vance+          125   2966.7     59     132      19147    Silver King           122   3190.7     87     104      19148    Steve Carlton+*       115   5217.3    186       9      19549    Billy Pierce*         119   3306.7    121      89      21050    Tommy Bridges         126   2826.3     55     157      212

Of the top 50 on this list, there are 15 players not already in the HOF. 8 of the 15 are still playing or haven't been retired long enough to be eligible. The other 7 pitchers are Blyleven, Tony Mullane, Jim McCormick, Will White, Eddie Cicotte, Silver King, and Tommy Bridges.

I'll put the next 50 into another post.

[Migrant Redbird]

Here are the next 50. At #81, I begin to include players who were not on both lists, either with an ERA+ below 110 or not being among the top 300 in innings pitched. I did look up the ERA+ for the HOF pitchers who were below 110, but I didn't look up the innings pitched for HOF pitchers who weren't in the top 300. [Edit: The insertion of Lefty Grove in the first fifty players moves Ferguson Jenkins down to #51; rather than renumber everything this close to midnight, I've just inserted Fergie as #50a.]

                         Adjusted           RANK    RANK  ADJUSTED RANK       Player           ERA   Innings   ERA+  INNINGS   SCORE50a   Fergie Jenkins+       115   4500.7    187      27      21451    Eppa Rixey+*          115   4494.7    188      29      21752    Dutch Leonard         119   3218.3    122      99      22153    Mickey Welch+         114   4802      208      17      22554    Carl Mays             120   3021.3    109     125      23455    Bob Caruthers         123   2828.7     79     156      23556    Dave Stieb            122   2895.3     88     147      23558    Jack Powell           114   4389      209      30      23957    Wilbur Cooper*        116   3480      167      72      23959    Dizzy Trout           124   2725.7     69     175      24460    Robin Roberts+        113   4688.7    230      21      25161    David Cone            120   2898.7    110     145      25562    Urban Shocker         124   2681.7     70     187      25763    Dennis Eckersley+     116   3285.7    168      91      25964    Jack Stivetts         120   2887.7    111     149      26065    Jim Bunning+          114   3760.3    210      53      26366    Bret Saberhagen       126   2562.7     56     215      27167    Sam Leever            123   2660.7     80     192      27268    Bob Lemon+            119   2850      123     152      27569    Rick Reuschel         114   3548.3    211      66      27770    Ed Reulbach           123   2632.3     81     198      27971    Luis Tiant            114   3486.3    212      71      28372    Hippo Vaughn*         120   2730      112     172      28473    Addie Joss+           142   2327       12     275      28774    Lon Warneke           119   2782.3    124     166      29076    Chuck Finley*         115   3197.3    189     102      29175    Lefty Gomez+*         125   2503       60     231      29177    Nolan Ryan+           111   5386      287       5      29278    Jimmy Key*            122   2591.7     89     209      29879    Hoyt Wilhelm+         146   2254.3      5     295      30080    Kevin Appier          121   2595.3     95     207      30281    Lefty Grove+*         148               2     301      30382    Bucky Walters         115   3104.7    190     115      30583    Dan Quisenberry       146               6     302      30884    Mel Harder            113   3426.3    231      78      30985    Joe Wood              146               7     303      31086    Sandy Koufax+*        131   2324.3     32     278      31087    Brandon Webb          144               8     304      31288    Roy Oswalt            143              10     305      31589    Deacon Phillippe      120   2607      113     205      31890    Jim Devlin            142              13     306      31991    Johan Santana*        141              14     307      32192    Steve Rogers          116   2837.7    169     153      32293    Larry Jackson         113   3262.7    232      93      32594    John Franco*          137              19     308      32795    Bruce Sutter+         136              20     309      32996    Tommy John*           110   4710.3    309      20      32997    Nig Cuppy             127   2284.3     49     285      33498    John Hiller*          134              26     310      33699    Larry Corcoran        123   2392.3     82     255      337100   Sadie McMahon         118   2634      140     197      337

Even if you accept the validity of this ranking system of merit for HOF consideration, none of the rankings after #80 are valid because some of them are missing data that belongs in the formula. I've included them only for illustration.

Here are the next 50; the caveats above are increasingly applicable.

                         Adjusted           RANK    RANK  ADJUSTED RANK       Player           ERA   Innings   ERA+  INNINGS   SCORE101   Harry Brecheen*       133              28     311      339102   Pud Galvin+           107   6003.3    337       2      339103   Waite Hoyt+           111   3762.3    288      52      340104   Kent Tekulve          132              29     312      341105   Don Sutton+           108   5282.3    335       7      342106   Noodles Hahn*         132              30     313      343107   Spud Chandler         132              31     314      345108   Lee Smith             131              33     315      348109   Tommy Bond            111   3628.7    289      59      348110   Roberto Hernandez     131              34     316      350111   Frank Dwyer           115   2810      191     161      352112   Carlos Zambrano       130              36     317      353113   Dizzy Dean+           130              37     318      355114   Virgil Trucks         116   2682.3    170     186      356119   Bobby Mathews               4956.3    343      14      357117   Doc White*            113   3041      233     124      357116   Guy Hecker            114   2906      213     144      357115   Hal Newhouser+*       130              38     319      357118   Jerry Koosman*        110   3839.3    310      47      357120   Doug Jones            129              40     320      360121   Early Wynn+           106   4564      339      22      361122   Mike Timlin           128              41     321      362123   Roy Halladay          128              42     322      364124   Andy Pettitte*        118   2527.7    141     224      365125   Red Ruffing+          109   4344      334      32      366126   Orel Hershiser        112   3130.3    257     110      367127   John Ward+            119   2461.7    125     243      368128   Jim Kaat*                   4530.3    344      26      370129   Wes Ferrell           116   2623      171     200      371130   Curt Schilling        127              50     323      373131   Burleigh Grimes+      107   4180      338      36      374133   Bob Shawkey           113   2937      234     141      375132   Jack Pfiester*        127              51     324      375135   Bill Hutchison        112   3078      258     119      377136   Curt Simmons*         111   3348.3    290      87      377134   Sal Maglie            127              52     325      377137   Gus Weyhing                 4324.3    345      33      378138   Sparky Lyle*          127              53     326      379139   Ed Morris*            115   2678      192     188      380140   Frank Tanana*               4188.3    346      35      381141   Ron Guidry*           119   2392      126     256      382142   Rich Gossage          126              57     327      384143   Jesse Tannehill*      114   2750.3    214     171      385145   Chief Bender+         112   3017      259     127      386146   Dennis Martinez             3999.7    347      39      386144   Tim Hudson            126              58     328      386147   Freddie Fitzsimmons   111   3223.7    291      96      387148   Nap Rucker*           119   2375.3    127     261      388149   Bob Wickman           125              61     329      390150   Lefty Grove+*               3940.7    348      42      390

And here are the remaining HOF pitchers, though I might have missed a relief pitch or two. I know why some of these pitchers are in the HOF; others, I have no idea.

                         Adjusted           RANK    RANK  ADJUSTED RANK       Player           ERA   Innings   ERA+  INNINGS   SCORE164   Herb Pennock+*        106   3571.7    340      63      403177   Catfish Hunter+       104   3449.3    341      74      415191   Rube Marquard+*       103   3306.7    342      90      432193   Babe Ruth+*           122              90     344      434196   Jesse Haines+         108   3208.7    336     100      436221   Jack Chesbro+         110   2896.7    315     146      461227   Candy Cummings+       120             115     359      474245   Rollie Fingers+       119             133     366      499262   Hal Newhouser+*             2993      390     131      521

What I think the list above does establish is that Blyleven's credentials remain pretty good using this ranking system. It also demonstrates, I think, that Maddux and Randy Johnson are locks for admission. Clemens would be even more of one if it weren't for the unknown factor of how the HOF voters will treat his citation in the Mitchell Report.

If Glavine and Pedro Martinez are also locks, then Kevin Brown, Mike Mussina, and John Smoltz should receive strong consideration as well.

[mweb]

Good work MR, that's another way of showing how deserving Bert is of being in the HOF. Also another good way of showing how overrated Nolan Ryan is, and how underrated Kevin Brown is, which I have mentioned before.

Did you forget Lefty Grove? 2nd all time in ERA+, 42nd in innings.

[Migrant Redbird]

Did you forget Lefty Grove? 2nd all time in ERA+, 42nd in innings.

Thanks for the catch. I'm not sure how Lefty got lost, amongst all the sorting in Excel 2007 and the formatting in Notepad. I've inserted him in at #8 on my list and partially fixed the remainder of the numbers; it's too late at night to fiddle with the formatting and fix the remainder. Not sure it's worth it. The relative rankings of the various pitchers against each other provides an opportunity to weigh the merits of the ranking system, but that's about all.