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Orioles offer Wieters extension, but no deal seems close


Greg

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The O's should trade him this offseason for the following reasons:

1. Can't afford him, need to use the money for the starting rotation

2. He doesn't hit well enough to play anywhere but catcher.

3. His catching skills are likely to decline sooner than later

4. With two years until FA his value will never be higher

Alternatively the O's should just pay his arb numbers for the next two years and let him walk in free agency

5. His physical makeup probably makes him a huge injury risk.

I don't really think they should trade him now (maybe if the right deal is there), but I'm very skeptical about a long term deal for this guy.

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The O's should trade him this offseason for the following reasons:

1. Can't afford him, need to use the money for the starting rotation

2. He doesn't hit well enough to play anywhere but catcher.

3. His catching skills are likely to decline sooner than later

4. With two years until FA his value will never be higher

Alternatively the O's should just pay his arb numbers for the next two years and let him walk in free agency

Who is going to be our full-time catcher? Chris Snyder. This isn't like left field were there are decent replacement players like McClouth just ripe for picking. Show me where you are going to get a guy with Wieters production catching? It is comical how people on this board continue to put down a guy like Wieters but pine for Reynolds being back on the team.

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Who is going to be our full-time catcher? Chris Snyder. This isn't like left field were there are decent replacement players like McClouth just ripe for picking. Show me where you are going to get a guy with Wieters production catching? It is comical how people on this board continue to put down a guy like Wieters but pine for Reynolds being back on the team.

Apples and Oranges. You can't compare a DH to a catcher.

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Everything else aside, I do find it interesting that people are quick to use Wieters' Gold Gloves when defending him, but discount Adam Jones' Gold Glove when bashing him. Either the award means something or it doesn't, you can't pick and choose which from players "deserved it" or not.

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Wieter's defense is very good, elite even...but how much of a price tag do you put on that and how long until you suspect a decline?

His best comp is Varitek, IMO. He was a big catcher, good defender, good with the staff, a pretty good hitter, not a world beater.

Try to get him at a contract relative to TEK's. Anything way above it and I'd be pretty hesitant, especially considering that his offense is nowhere near what was projected when he was still a prospect.

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Who is going to be our full-time catcher? Chris Snyder. This isn't like left field were there are decent replacement players like McClouth just ripe for picking. Show me where you are going to get a guy with Wieters production catching? It is comical how people on this board continue to put down a guy like Wieters but pine for Reynolds being back on the team.

Our catching depth is a concern and why I don't see it happening now (i.e. even next year). That said, depending on what you got back for him you wouldn't necessarily have to match his production. While Wieters is very valuable, a lot of teams have had success piecing together lower cost catching platoons.

I think Webbrick made some nice points that you're overlooking.

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Everything else aside, I do find it interesting that people are quick to use Wieters' Gold Gloves when defending him, but discount Adam Jones' Gold Glove when bashing him. Either the award means something or it doesn't, you can't pick and choose which from players "deserved it" or not.

I have never once talked about Jones' gold gloves, good, bad, or indifferent. The reason I mention Wieters' GG's is simply because they were a very well deserved award reflecting his defensive accomplishments. If you prefer, I could just mention that in 2011 Wieters won the fielding bible award making him the best defensive catcher in all of baseball that year. I am fine for making a trade that makes this team better, but I dont think that some on here understand A. What we have in Wieters 2. What it takes to replace him C. Or his value. I dont know what his trade value is. But we better end up a better team after the trade.

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Been watching bits of Pirate's games lately and wondered about Russell Martin in comparison to Matt Wieters. Martin got a 2 year 17M contract this year in his first shot at Free Agency. I wondered how Martin compared to Wieters and was pleasantly (I think Wieters is overrated by many) surprised to see that it's pretty close. Martin has been durable, catching at least 120 games in 6 or his 7 seasons. He has a career .751 OPS although, to be fair, it's probably more like .700 or low 700's over the last 4 years. Defensively, he has a career CS % of 31 which is 4% above league average during that time. His defensive WAR, according to baseball reference is generally around 1.5.

Matt Wieters has been even more durable (or is it just overused?) during his career, averaging over 130 games with a high of 144 last year. His career OPS is .746. His DWAR might be slightly higher than Wieters but generally in the same 1.5 range. His career CS % is 34 which is 8% over league average during that time.

Conclusion. I think the CS numbers on the O's are enhanced by Showalters obsession with controlling the opponent's running game. Wieters CS numbers have gone up each year, starting with 24%, 31%, and then during the Showalter years, 37%, 39%, and 53% so far this year. Wieters might be slightly better offensively. He might be a little better defensively. He certainly doesn't run as well as Martin. Wieters is younger. He's probably better overall. I am not against signing him to an extension. I just hope the O's don't overpay. He's not great.

I think Martin is a pretty reasonable comp for Wieters. I was actually a little surprised that 2/$17 mm was the best he could get last winter. His case certainly suggests that it should not be necessary to break the bank to extend Wieters.

Then on the other hand you have Miguel Montero, who after 5+ years of service time, got a 6/$65.9 mm contract. He's also a decent comp for Wieters, career 105 OPS+ (Wieters is 101), but not as good on defense.

My sense is that Wieters is pretty likely to attract a contract like Montero's.

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I have never once talked about Jones' gold gloves, good, bad, or indifferent. The reason I mention Wieters' GG's is simply because they were a very well deserved award reflecting his defensive accomplishments. If you prefer, I could just mention that in 2011 Wieters won the fielding bible award making him the best defensive catcher in all of baseball that year. I am fine for making a trade that makes this team better, but I dont think that some on here understand A. What we have in Wieters 2. What it takes to replace him C. Or his value. I dont know what his trade value is. But we better end up a better team after the trade.

Sorry, I wasn't referring to you specifically. In general, it just seems like the anti-AJ guys dismiss his gold glove as meaningful but when people talk about Wieters they use it to defend his defensive reputation. A gold glove is a gold glove, and while I think it's more a popularity contest than anything it's not fair to pick and choose when applying its significance.

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Sorry, I wasn't referring to you specifically. In general, it just seems like the anti-AJ guys dismiss his gold glove as meaningful but when people talk about Wieters they use it to defend his defensive reputation. A gold glove is a gold glove, and while I think it's more a popularity contest than anything it's not fair to pick and choose when applying its significance.

Somewhat understandable though. Of all the positions, defensive/value metrics for catchers are far and away the most fuzzy with plenty of opinion about intangible aspects.

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Eventually the O's will have to pick and choose which of these young players they want to allocate resources to...there will not be a huge payroll increase. I think Wieters falls short. I think it'll be more important in the future to hold onto Machado and some of this pitching and Wieters value is still pretty high, so I won't be heartbroken if he was traded.

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Everything else aside, I do find it interesting that people are quick to use Wieters' Gold Gloves when defending him, but discount Adam Jones' Gold Glove when bashing him. Either the award means something or it doesn't, you can't pick and choose which from players "deserved it" or not.

Actually...you can. For example, Derek Jeter won some GG's, but was never a great defensive SS. Ozzie Smith won many GG's, and he was a great defensive SS.

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