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Orioles offer Wieters extension, but no deal seems close


Greg

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It'd have to be very favorable for us. I agree with what someone else said. It should be Wieters and not us that should be in a hurry to do this.

I'd be content to catch him out and maybe deal him at the end of our control. In any case, nobody wants to get rid of him without a viable plan.

32 would be the upper limit of what I would agree to without qualifiers that would make Boras refuse. I would feel better at 31.

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What Ref, the part about OPS?

It was part of a framing article I posted to the MLB section last week. The 50 runs saved over 107 innings would be harder to find but that is what one number cruncher came up with for his 2012 season.

Yeah, I was looking for the pitch framing reference. Was it a Fast study?

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I think it really comes down to whether we see him as part of the core of this team that we will march into the upcoming years with (IE Davis, Jones, Machado...). We are going to need money to lock up our core players for repeated competitive seasons... if Wieters isn't considered to be part of that core, then we only keep him if we get him on team friendly terms that don't our affect our ability to pay our core players.

I really do like Wieters, but an extension for him has to make sense for the team going forward. If we decide we need to go a different direction because of that, we'll want to maximize the value we get from him. If that's a trade that benefits the team, then so be it.

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Fast works for the Astros and doesn't release anything to the public anymore.

His numbers seemed reasonable to me.

This is a BP piece that references the work of the 50 run analyst.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=18896

Yeah, no actual study there, but I don't buy it. That said when I see extraordinary DRS/UZR numbers (especially for one season) I don't necessarilly buy them either. That said, there seems to be enough guys studying this and all concluding that Molina is exceptional at it over his career. So, I believe something exceptional is probably there.

Has DRS/Fielding Bible bought into any of this yet? For some reason they are not liking Wieters defense this year..

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Yeah, no actual study there, but I don't buy it. That said when I see extraordinary DRS/UZR numbers (especially for one season) I don't necessarilly buy them either. That said, there seems to be enough guys studying this and all concluding that Molina is exceptional at it over his career. So, I believe something exceptional is probably there.

Has DRS/Fielding Bible bought into any of this yet? For some reason they are not liking Wieters defense this year..

Haven't heard. Seems like it is still premature for them to be integrating it. As far as I am concerned the entire field took a big hit when Fast turned pro.

Lot of variables beyond "It looks like it was a ball and was called a strike."

I find it very interesting that opposing OPS has been higher vs Molina then against Tampa's backup catchers in both '12 and so far in '13 (as of last week). I would think that a higher K rate coupled with a lower BB rate would have a significant effect on OPS.

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Haven't heard. Seems like it is still premature for them to be integrating it. As far as I am concerned the entire field took a big hit when Fast turned pro.

Lot of variables beyond "It looks like it was a ball and was called a strike."

I find it very interesting that opposing OPS has been higher vs Molina then against Tampa's backup catchers in both '12 and so far in '13 (as of last week). I would think that a higher K rate coupled with a lower BB rate would have a significant effect on OPS.

When a distinguished but elderly scientist states that something is possible, he is almost certainly right. When he states that something is impossible, he is very probably wrong.

The only way of discovering the limits of the possible is to venture a little way past them into the impossible.

Any sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishable from magic.

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Yeah, no actual study there, but I don't buy it. That said when I see extraordinary DRS/UZR numbers (especially for one season) I don't necessarilly buy them either. That said, there seems to be enough guys studying this and all concluding that Molina is exceptional at it over his career. So, I believe something exceptional is probably there.

Has DRS/Fielding Bible bought into any of this yet? For some reason they are not liking Wieters defense this year..

Wieters' pitch blocking hasn't been as good this year as in the past two. Last season he allowed 5 passed balls and only 27 wild pitches got past him. This year, he has 3 passed balls and 15 wild pitches, one-third of the way through the season. Other than that, I don't really see a reason for his defensive numbers to be down, especially considering his ridiculous control of the running game this season.

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When a distinguished but elderly scientist states that something is possible, he is almost certainly right. When he states that something is impossible, he is very probably wrong.

The only way of discovering the limits of the possible is to venture a little way past them into the impossible.

Any sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishable from magic.

Someone is a bit aegist.

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Wieters is a very good thrower. Just not as good as he gets credit for. How many one hoppers has Hardy dug out and slapped a tag down on? It's not like he throws as strike down to 2B every time either. He's good. He has a plus arm and he gets rid of the ball quickly.

I highly doubt there are no other catchers that ever benefit from their infield stopping a one-hopper from getting by them on the throw out attempt. I think you may have some reverse familiarity bias going on here.

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I think it would be likely that their team would be better. I am not sure what the numbers would look like, specifically ERA. When you have a catcher that is holding the runners better and throwing out at a higher rate, it just makes sense the ERA would be lower and the pitchers could go deeper into games by lowering the pitch counts on the runners CS. I dont know of any way to accurately project these numbers. But the team would be better with Wieters behind the plate rather than Molina. Certainly the offensive production would have been, and correct me if I am wrong, but that is the biggest argument against Wieters.

But the O's ERA is the fourth worst in the majors. 2011 was the worst and 2010 again fourth worst. How does holding runners get a better ERA? Also Buck has made the pitchers quicken the time to home plate. Wieters goes to another team that does not worry about this so much and maybe his caught stealing ratio goes down.

Also Wieters offense is not great so far this year. You can look at him in specific categories against other catchers, The -.01 WAR is one of the worst. His homer power is the big plus for him. I think he will still go on his hot streak. His average is almost identical to last year and he had one more homer in the prior year. RBI's and doubles are up.

I would still sign him for a reasonable extension. I would not break the bank for him.

http://espn.go.com/mlb/stats/batting/_/position/c/sort/WARBR/order/true/minpa/150

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