Everyone has off nights, bounce back tomorrow, Buck

[Tony-OH]

I think Buck was thinking this could go several more innings and he didn't want Chris Davis pitching in the 12th. Strop, Ayala and Hunter had been used. O'Day (1.2 IP), Patton and JJ were used the night before and it's very early in the season. This isn't really the ideal situation for McFarland's debut. So you'd better try to get more than one inning from Hunter. Pretty decent logic if you ask me.

Perhaps, but I disagree with this whole ideal situation to make McFarland's debut. First off, this is not a juggernaut lineup and Tampa is normally a pitcher's park. If he gets two innings out of Matusz, he could turn the game over to McFarland. McFarland should have been able to finish the game unless we got into a 16 inning affair and then, your bullpen is going to burned out anyways. He then would have Patton, JJ and O'day ready for today's game.

[Brendan25]

I loved Bucks postgame comments. He seriously acted like it was a spring training loss and we are going to learn from it and he saw some good things and we are going to go at it tomorrow. The beginning of the year always scares me because all it takes is a 3-8 start for fans to jump off the bandwagon and Camden Yards to have a 10,000 attendance night. Really hope we get the series today with Gonzalez on the bump.

[Tony-OH]

Which I agree with, totally. I just don't understand comments such as "this one's on Buck"

The thing I do like about Buck is that, if asked, he usually has a good explanation as to why.

I didn't see the post game presser, but did anyone ask about the shifts or did he comment on as to why?

I think that's just the emotions talking really. I guess I just don't pay much attention to those kinds of posts. More times than not, Buck pushes the right buttons. In yesterday's game, he pushed the wrong ones. It happens. I didn't hear the presser.

[DrungoHazewood]

I loved Bucks postgame comments. He seriously acted like it was a spring training loss and we are going to learn from it and he saw some good things and we are going to go at it tomorrow. The beginning of the year always scares me because all it takes is a 3-8 start for fans to jump off the bandwagon and Camden Yards to have a 10,000 attendance night. Really hope we get the series today with Gonzalez on the bump.

Luckily tickets are sold and revenues made based largely on last year's performance. Those thousands of season tickets sold in November and January are non-refundable (right?).

[eddie83]

The bottom line is you don't manage the second game of the season like the second game of the World Series. One of the reasons our bullpen was so good last year is because Buck didn't overwork them. I think managing a pen this early is difficult as well. You are trying to get guys their work in to keep fresh and trying to win at the same time. Once we get into the season things will settle down.

The whole shift issue to me is when the team has a runner on first base. If there is nobody on first base I have no issue with it. Am I wrong to say last night that had Johnson hit the ball to the right side we would of had nobody covering second base? We were basically conceding the tying run going into scoring position on a ground ball to the right side. I don't remember those dramatic shifts when a double play was in order.

[UpstateNYfan]

Yes, all of that. The manager's job is to put the team in situations where they are most likely to succeed the highest percentage of the time. And it's often not at all clear which of several options is that situation, even after the fact. If sluggers start bunting all the time against the shift, you change the shift. You don't just abandon the strategy that was probably responsible for the O's big defensive improvements last year.

I know people love parceling out blame, but often times you do defensible, reasonable things, and you still lose. It happens.

My only problem with the shift with Joyce is that it was a one run game. Joyce appears to be a team player without a huge ego and was willing to get on base anyway he could to help the team. Which happens more often? A lead off walk leading to a run or a home run? The last I saw data on it the lead off base runner getting on and scoring was somewhere around 30 to 40 percent. The odds of hitting a home run much less. A hit is a hit whether it goes 40 feet in the infield or a line drive over the second baseman. Which is easier? For an athlete laying down that bunt has to be. BS being fearful of the long ball? His shift doesn't protect against the long ball. A single is always more likely than a home run. He gave him an easy one. Even worse than that was with TJ and BM in the bullpen, why not the lefty-lefty match up in the bottom of the ninth. Why have TJ on the squad if you are not going to use him? Too much pressure? Better to find early than later. And BM? The only excuse there is if they are uncertain about Tillman. Ayala was the true goat of the game, Buck a close second IMO.

[DrungoHazewood]

My only problem with the shift with Joyce is that it was a one run game. Joyce appears to be a team player without a huge ego and was willing to get on base anyway he could to help the team. Which happens more often? A lead off walk leading to a run or a home run? The last I saw data on it the lead off base runner getting on and scoring was somewhere around 30 to 40 percent. The odds of hitting a home run much less. A hit is a hit whether it goes 40 feet in the infield or a line drive over the second baseman. Which is easier? For an athlete laying down that bunt has to be. BS being fearful of the long ball? His shift doesn't protect against the long ball. A single is always more likely than a home run. He gave him an easy one. Even worse than that was with TJ and BM in the bullpen, why not the lefty-lefty match up in the bottom of the ninth. Why have TJ on the squad if you are not going to use him? Too much pressure? Better to find early than later. And BM? The only excuse there is if they are uncertain about Tillman. Ayala was the true goat of the game, Buck a close second IMO.

From his game logs it look like Matt Joyce had bunted three times in his MLB career (1563 PAs) prior to that play. One was clearly a sacrifice, and scored that way. One was a ground out to the pitcher. One was a bunt hit, almost a year ago. So, presumably, last year a lot of teams shifted on Joyce, and he bunted to counter that once in May. He pulls the ball or hits it up the middle 86% of the time. And the 14% of the time he goes to the opposite field he OPSes .539. The Orioles were pretty well justified in shifting against him.

But obviously if he (or anyone) starts bunting with any regularity against the shift they'll have to employ a counter-strategy.

[Tony-OH]

Isn't it possible to press the right buttons and get the wrong results. I can see an argument for bringing Matusz in for the 9th. I can see an argument for not bunting McLouth. I can see an argument for PH for Machado. However, I don't think he did anything terrible. Things didn't work out. Ayala threw a meatball to Duncan, Strop pitched so so and into some bad luck, and Hunter went one inning too far. Ayala is a guy we should be able to count on to get Shelly Duncan out. Strop is a guy we need to count on. My biggest problem was seeing Hunter come back out for the 9th. Even though he got three outs in the 8th he didn't look that good doing it, to me.

Speaking of Hunter, this is a guy who got in better shape last year and was throwing 97 mph last September. Last night I saw a guy who put some weight back on and who's fastball was more 94 than 96-97. With his straight fasball, location is even more important than ever.

I agree with you here 100 percent.

[Why Not?]

No disrespect Tony, but I'm going to completely disagree. I wouldn't use a guy with a career .639 OPS, coming off a .603 season, as a pinch hitter for anyone except the pitcher. 4-for-7 off a guy who was a completely different pitcher before last year is really worse than meaningless - it's downright misleading.

In 1982 I wouldn't have pinch hit Kiko Garcia for Cal Ripken (even if Kiko was 6-for-13 off Geoff Zahn), and I'm not pinch hitting Casilla for Manny.

Casilla's last hit vs. Rodney was in Sept. 2009. They have only faced each other once since.

Also of note: Casilla has a career .172 BA at the Trop; 2-for-16 in his career as a pinch-hitter.

If you dig deep enough, you can cherry-pick numbers to justify just about any move.

[Tony-OH]

Casilla's last hit vs. Rodney was in Sept. 2009. They have only faced each other once since.

Also of note: Casilla has a career .172 BA at the Trop; 2-for-16 in his career as a pinch-hitter.

If you dig deep enough, you can cherry-pick numbers to justify just about any move.

I would certainly argue those numbers mean absolutely nothing. I much rather have matchup numbers. I don't think 4-for-7 off a guy is cherry picking. Either way, I've said my peace on this. I'm fine if people have another opinion.

[UpstateNYfan]

From his game logs it look like Matt Joyce had bunted three times in his MLB career (1563 PAs) prior to that play. One was clearly a sacrifice, and scored that way. One was a ground out to the pitcher. One was a bunt hit, almost a year ago. So, presumably, last year a lot of teams shifted on Joyce, and he bunted to counter that once in May. He pulls the ball or hits it up the middle 86% of the time. And the 14% of the time he goes to the opposite field he OPSes .539. The Orioles were pretty well justified in shifting against him.

But obviously if he (or anyone) starts bunting with any regularity against the shift they'll have to employ a counter-strategy.

You are missing my point in general. In a one run game, the first out is extremely important. After one out, I certainly would have used the shift. Secondly, I believe it is a general belief that it is easier to bunt a low ball hitter than a high pitch. Strop is a low ball pitcher. Teams coming out of ST have worked on this (Davis, Wieters). It is a perfect time to put that message out for the season. I just don't care for it in that situation.

[Il BuonO]

I'm surprised this thread didn't turn into a bashing of anyone who dares question Buck or any of his moves. The "Buck is smarter than you" crowd is usually out there waiting to pounce on anyone who might disagree with him.

I've said this before, I think Buck's strength has been in changing the culture that was here and keeping a winning mentality in the dugout. I still believe that the performance we saw last year in the BP was more about guys having career years than it was his management. And I still think it is the most likely area for regression on this team.

[El Gordo]

I didn't think the shift was such a great idea in that situation, though in general I am for it. I had no problem with bringing Hunter back after an 8 pitch inning. And I wouldn't have PH for Manny. If you've decided to try him in the 2 hole you don't yank him the first sign of trouble. You have to stick with it for at least 10 G IMO. The bottom line for me is we lost because two RP in their first outing of the season each left a pitch up. Bummer. It happens. It's just the second game.

[survivedc]

I didn't think the shift was such a great idea in that situation, though in general I am for it. I had no problem with bringing Hunter back after an 8 pitch inning. And I wouldn't have PH for Manny. If you've decided to try him in the 2 hole you don't yank him the first sign of trouble. You have to stick with it for at least 10 G IMO. The bottom line for me is we lost because two RP in their first outing of the season each left a pitch up. Bummer. It happens. It's just the second game.

This summarizes my feelings exactly. Manny hasn't been batting well for the first 2 games, and people want to yank him out of the two whole, or pinch hit for him against one of the best pitchers in the game? I'll admit casilla had good numbers against him, but pinch hitting is entirely different from hitting for an entire game.

[Hallas]

While I don't really agree with shifting that severely when you're pitching to the outside corner, Kelly Johnson is a fairly extreme pull hitter. In his career, he has hit the ball to pull 41% of the time, and 75% of the time he hits it either up the middle or to pull. He also has more ground ball tendencies when he pulls the ball. For a point of comparison, he has stronger pull tendencies than Joey Bats, and no one questions the usefulness of the shift against him.

So, I have to say that it's probably a good strategy given the batter.