Brian Matusz Today, 2013

[webbrick2010]

Funny how you only seem to pop up after the Orioles lose with a list of things to complain about.

Actually I have popped up elsewhere defending Strop and Hunter, and the decision to trade Ayala.

Matusz career splits:

vs RHB .303/.369/.497 .866 OPS

vs LHB .214/.270/.363 .633 OPS

so yes he does struggle against RHB, and don't give me some small SSS since he has pitched out of the bullpen

Four years ago I got shouted down on the Sunpapers message board for starting a thread that I thought that Brian Matusz's ceiling was a Bruce Chen type starter, and that more likely the would become a situational lefty out of the bullpen.

Bruce Chen he is not.

[Tony-OH]

Matusz has been a disappointment for a #4 overall pick and a player we were counting on to be the ace of the rotation.

However, I think he's solid in the BP.

Ok, I can buy that line of thinking, but I like Matusz in the role's he's in and I guess I'm just surprised that some are still bashing him after as good as he's been in this role.

[DrungoHazewood]

Matusz has been a disappointment for a #4 overall pick and a player we were counting on to be the ace of the rotation.

However, I think he's solid in the BP.

The average #4 overall pick is worth about 5 WAR over the six years he's under team control. Matusz, by fWAR, is sitting at 3.7 with several years left under Orioles control. He is only at 0.2 rWAR.

The draft is unusual in that the distribution is way skewed. If you look at any pick over the years you'll see values like 25, 15, 5, 0, 0, 0, 0, -1, -2, -5 (numbers made up). One or two very good players and a bunch of zeros or worse.

Literally here are the WAR totals of the #4 overall picks from 2000-2010: 0, 0, 1.7, 0.2, 0.5, 30, 4.1, 3.4, 0.5, 14.9, 0.

Since the start of the draft in '65 there have been 10 players drafted #4 who were what I'd call very good players (20+ rWAR career). And there have been 24 #4s who totaled < 1 rWAR for their careers. So you're twice as likely to get nothing as you are a star out of Matusz' spot.

[ShaneDawg85]

Actually I have popped up elsewhere defending Strop and Hunter, and the decision to trade Ayala.

Matusz career splits:

vs RHB .303/.369/.497 .866 OPS

vs LHB .214/.270/.363 .633 OPS

so yes he does struggle against RHB, and don't give me some small SSS since he has pitched out of the bullpen

Four years ago I got shouted down on the Sunpapers message board for starting a thread that I thought that Brian Matusz's ceiling was a Bruce Chen type starter, and that more likely the would become a situational lefty out of the bullpen.

Bruce Chen he is not.

Funny how you talk down small sample size and yet use stats that are built largely from his time as a starter. You may be defending Strop and Hunter, which I haven't seen, yet you do it at the same time while running down Matusz, Ayala, the front office, and on and on. I stand by my statement, you mainly show up after the Orioles lose, which coincidentally is also when Strop and Hunter have tended to get bashed the most.

[Ruzious]

Funny how you talk down small sample size and yet use stats that are built largely from his time as a starter. You may be defending Strop and Hunter, which I haven't seen, yet you do it at the same time while running down Matusz, Ayala, the front office, and on and on. I stand by my statement, you mainly show up after the Orioles lose, which coincidentally is also when Strop and Hunter have tended to get bashed the most.

Just curious - why does that matter so much to you?

[webbrick2010]

Funny how you talk down small sample size and yet use stats that are built largely from his time as a starter. You may be defending Strop and Hunter, which I haven't seen, yet you do it at the same time while running down Matusz, Ayala, the front office, and on and on. I stand by my statement, you mainly show up after the Orioles lose, which coincidentally is also when Strop and Hunter have tended to get bashed the most.

Not sure why I bother... but of course you have to look at his time as a starter because that is the the significantly larger statistical sample size. If he pitches the next 10 years out of the bullpen, I would expect his RHB splits to be worse (probably way worse) than his LHB splits. He is what he is.

[OFFNY]

Funny how you talk down small sample size and yet use stats that are built largely from his time as a starter. You may be defending Strop and Hunter, which I haven't seen, yet you do it at the same time while running down Matusz, Ayala, the front office, and on and on. I stand by my statement, you mainly show up after the Orioles lose, which coincidentally is also when Strop and Hunter have tended to get bashed the most.

Just curious - why does that matter so much to you?

Because posters that do that often show an extreme bias and have some type of obvious agenda that is as transparent as scotch tape, which makes their credibility highly questionable, to say the least. Subsequently, Shane Dawg 85 is far from the only poster to whom "this matters to," and far from the only one that sees this particular pattern, and subsequently takes the comments of said posters with a grain ...... or perhaps several grains of salt.

[Tony-OH]

Not sure why I bother... but of course you have to look at his time as a starter because that is the the significantly larger statistical sample size. If he pitches the next 10 years out of the bullpen, I would expect his RHB splits to be worse (probably way worse) than his LHB splits. He is what he is.

I lost a long response to this but I'll summarize another one with this. It's a totally different role. Pitching for an inning or two is much different than pitching as a starter and Matusz's stuff obviously plays up as a reliever.

[DrungoHazewood]

Not sure why I bother... but of course you have to look at his time as a starter because that is the the significantly larger statistical sample size. If he pitches the next 10 years out of the bullpen, I would expect his RHB splits to be worse (probably way worse) than his LHB splits. He is what he is.

You are right that his number of innings out of the pen are too small to draw any conclusions from. And Tony is right that relief pitching is a totally different role, so you can't draw too many conclusions from his starting numbers.

Basically, you need to take his relief RA and heavily regress that towards his career (RA minus one run). I know this won't be really kind to him, but he has a 5.50 as a starter, so you take his 24 innings in relief with a 2.22 and add in, I don't know, 100ish innings of a 4.50. Which probably puts him around a 4.00. He may be better than that, but that's about as good an estimate as you'll get.

[Ruzious]

Because posters that do that often show an extreme bias and have some type of obvious agenda that is as transparent as scotch tape, which makes their credibility highly questionable, to say the least. Subsequently, Shane Dawg 85 is far from the only poster to whom "this matters to," and far from the only one that sees this particular pattern, and subsequently takes the comments of said posters with a grain ...... or perhaps several grains of salt.

I appreciate the response, and while I don't follow this board religiously, my impression is that his number 1 agenda is for the O's to do well. I like to see overly optimistic posts offset by posts that present the other side. Sometimes I go to far - like earlier in this thread, and some people are more than happy to point that out to me.

[OFFNY]

I appreciate the response, and while I don't follow this board religiously, my impression is that his number 1 agenda is for the O's to do well. I like to see overly optimistic posts offset by posts that present the other side. Sometimes I go to far - like earlier in this thread, and some people are more than happy to point that out to me.

There is a significant difference between offsetting overly optimistic posts, and just coming on board to take pisses when the team loses and/or struggles. Shane Dawg 85, myself, and a number of others see the poster in question for what he is, which is the latter. If you want to hitch your wagon alongside him, as you did when you stated your relief that "I'm happy that 1 person agrees with me," be my guest.

.

[DrungoHazewood]

I appreciate the response, and while I don't follow this board religiously, my impression is that his number 1 agenda is for the O's to do well. I like to see overly optimistic posts offset by posts that present the other side. Sometimes I go to far - like earlier in this thread, and some people are more than happy to point that out to me.

You have to understand that webbrick2010 is very outspoken and overwhelmingly critical of the O's and their offseason and their path they've chosen for 2013. When you jump on board and say you're of a like mind just know that you're linking yourself with a single-issue poster and all the baggage he carries.

[Ruzious]

You have to understand that webbrick2010 is very outspoken and overwhelmingly critical of the O's and their offseason and their path they've chosen for 2013. When you jump on board and say you're of a like mind just know that you're linking yourself with a single-issue poster and all the baggage he carries.

I said I was happy someone agreed with me. Sometimes that's nice - especially when a lot of outspoken folks here seems to form an us against him mentality - hypothetically speaking.

[Ommaculate]

Fair enough, I shouldn't have gone that far. What I'm trying to get at - is he's overrated. Probably what started me on this was when people said I was nuts for suggesting we trade Matusz for Morse - and not one person agreeing with me.

And again, it was 3 terrible pitches last night - not 1.

What about all the jams Matusz has pitched out of recently? Off the top; of my head I remember 2 huge jams where Matusz came in, and had key strikeouts that helped win the game. that's why I am not mad about yesterday. he has been GREAT this year except for last night. Not sure where your hate is coming from. Have you been watching the games?

[Ruzious]

What about all the jams Matusz has pitched out of recently? Off the top; of my head I remember 2 huge jams where Matusz came in, and had key strikeouts that helped win the game. that's why I am not mad about yesterday. he has been GREAT this year except for last night. Not sure where your hate is coming from. Have you been watching the games?

Yes, I've watched him not just this year - but for several years. And before I get labelled any further, I'm bowing out of this thread.