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Chris Tillman Today, 2013


OFFNY

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The past two starts have been extremely frustrating. It IS curious that the Cavalry has so much trouble with repeating their deliveries. The three non-cavalry starters (Hammel, Chen, Gonzales) don't seem to have any issues. Maybe simple repeatable deliveries were not emphasized while they were in the minors.

Tillman showed last year that he has the potential to consistently repeat his mechanics, so I think you have to give him a little longer rope than Arrietta. Arrietta has never shown that he can consistently repeat his mechanics over an extended time period. I would give him a handful of more starts and if he doesn't improve dramatically, it is time for either Johnson or Jurrgens. While they don't have the pure stuff that Arrietta has, they hardly ever start off an inning by walking the #9 batter.

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I'll add here that while I realize I'm just running hot right now, I'm not really buying "it's just one game". If by some miracle Tillman goes on a tear after this game and repeats 2012, then fantastic. But we've all seen this for years. If you're really the big time prospect with the ace stuff and you've really turned a corner, you're not coming out and pitching 3.2 innings against the Twins. You're just not.

You're right, good pitchers never have bad games. Not at all. Never. Ever.

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Meh. I'm not saying good pitchers don't have bad games - but ask yourself, are those games you linked an anomaly for those pitchers? Yes. Is it for Chris Tillman? Absolutely not. He's been doing it for years.

The glimmer of hope is that Tillman's good 86 IP last year was his most in the majors and his best by far. But you can't tell me yesterday didn't look like the "old" Tillman that we've come to know over the years. 3.2 IP is never acceptable, especially on a team with playoff hopes. And I'm so tired of it from Tillman - he seriously drives me nuts.

What's an anomaly? There's a continuum of pitchers, from HOFer to high school kid, and the lower you get to more likely he's going to have a bad outing against major leaguers. Yes, it is more unusual for Lefty Grove to give up five earned in 3.2 than it is for Chris Tillman. But every pitcher has those days, and not infrequently. As I mentioned in another thread - all of this April stuff is confirmation bias. Everyone who thought Joe Smith was bad and undeserving of a spot is on the lookout for bad outings and flaws that will confirm that belief, even if it's clear that management/stats/analysis/scouts hold a very different opinion.

By the way, I think Tillman is going to be a guy who pitches to roughly an average AL ERA this year. That's what his peripherals from last year indicated. In fact, I'm willing to bet that part of the vitriol directed his way after one iffy start is because some people thought his sub-3.00 ERA from last year was real, even if it contained a .220-ish BABIP which stood an excellent chance of turning into a .280 this year. Tillman should be a decent 3, 4, 5 starter, and one so-so start shouldn't change anyone's opinion more than a tiny amount.

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I'm encouraged by the velocity.

When we were doubting Tillman, it was both velocity and command.

If he keeps his stuff as his, I expect the results to improve as he gets sharper with command. Then again, that's what we keep saying about Jake...

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CHRIS TILLMAN O (vs. RED SOX, 4/11)

IP:. 5.33

H:o 6

R:O 2

BB: 2

SO: 5

Pitches: 101 (60 Strikes, 41 Balls)

2013 ERA: 7.00

******************

PITCHES BY INNINGS

20

9

36

18

13

5 *

* Tillman retired 1 batter in the 6th inning before departing.

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.

CHRIS TILLMAN O (vs. D-RAYS, 4/17)

IP:. 5

H:o 6

R:O 4

BB: 2

SO: 6

Pitches: 93 (52 Strikes, 41 Balls)

2013 ERA: 7.07

******************

PITCHES BY INNINGS

14 (61 Strikes)

19 (11 Strikes)

16 (10 Strikes)

28 (16 Strikes)

16 (90 Strikes)

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