2013 St. Louis Cardinals

[Spy Fox]

I very much dislike the Cardinals. They are nothing more than the Yankees of the NL to me.

BUT, wow do they have the potential to be a pennant contender this year and many years to come with all their great young SP. And a stellar well-balanced offense too. It's looking like they absolutely made the right decision to pass on Pujols and spend that money elsewhere. I'm glad the O's don't have to play them much!

[Migrant Redbird]

I very much dislike the Cardinals. They are nothing more than the Yankees of the NL to me.

Then you can understand why I regard our chief rival as being the Yankees, not the futile Cubs or the thuggish Reds and Brewers.

In the NL, the Dodgers and Giants have been the traditional rivals of the Cards The success of the Reds and Phillies largely coincided with down years for the Cards, so we really weren't rivals to them when they were on top. There was a short but intense rivalry with the Mets (Pond Scum) 1985-1987, but that was about it.

... BUT, wow do they have the potential to be a pennant contender this year and many years to come with all their great young SP. And a stellar well-balanced offense too.

But is it luck or the residue of design (great management)?

... It's looking like they absolutely made the right decision to pass on Pujols and spend that money elsewhere.

The Cards didn't decide to "pass on Pujols". They made him an offer which would have crippled the payroll. Albert did the Cards a huge favor when he decided that "money equals respect" and chose the Marlins and Angels offers over the ones from the Cards. (Marlins offer was rejected when they refused to include a no trade clause.) Some Cards fans are still bitter towards Albert, but many of us are intensely grateful to him. We got his HOF years at a bargain price.

... I'm glad the O's don't have to play them much!

As a Cards fan residing in O's territory, I'm sorry they don't meet more often. The O's have long been my favorite AL team because of the St. Louis Browns connection. (Which some O's fans may prefer to forget.)

[Spy Fox]

But is it luck or the residue of design (great management)?

Oh, great management for sure. I'm obviously not a Cardinals expert, but viewing from afar it seems that they have been one of the best operated franchises in baseball over the past 5-10 years, especially in player development.

The Cards didn't decide to "pass on Pujols". They made him an offer which would have crippled the payroll. Albert did the Cards a huge favor when he decided that "money equals respect" and chose the Marlins and Angels offers over the ones from the Cards. (Marlins offer was rejected when they refused to include a no trade clause.) Some Cards fans are still bitter towards Albert, but many of us are intensely grateful to him. We got his HOF years at a bargain price.

I had somehow misremembered the details of that, thanks for clarifying. I'm trying to imagine how different the MLB landscape might look right now if he had chosen Miami, since that would have surely caused the whole "New Look Marlins" and subsequent disappointment and blowup to go down a lot differently, or not at all.

[Migrant Redbird]

Oh, great management for sure. I'm obviously not a Cardinals expert, but viewing from afar it seems that they have been one of the best operated franchises in baseball over the past 5-10 years, especially in player development.

That's what the "experts" say, but there's always an element of luck too. Pujols was drafted in the 13th round. Piazza was drafted in the 62nd round. Meanwhile, a lot of 1st round pics are busts.

... I had somehow misremembered the details of that, thanks for clarifying.

The "details" are still a little fuzzy. Neither side has publicly released their negotiating offers.

... I'm trying to imagine how different the MLB landscape might look right now if he had chosen Miami, since that would have surely caused the whole "New Look Marlins" and subsequent disappointment and blowup to go down a lot differently, or not at all.

The Marlins would have still "blown up", but the no trade clause Pujols insisted on was a deal breaker for the Marlins.

Guess what? This great new pitching prospect of the Cards, Michael Wacha, who went 7 innings and allowed 2 hits, 1 run, and struck out 6 in his first major league start, was selected with the supplementary draft pick the Cardinals got for the loss of Pujols. How about that? See why we're so grateful for Pujols for not accepting the Cards offer?

[PaulFolk]

Get this! Despite losing 3/5 of his starting rotation and his closer, some fans are so disgusted with Matheny's bullpen management they're calling for his replacement, even with the best record in baseball playing in baseball's strongest division (as of Memorial Day) and having an admittedly difficult road schedule in April.

Wait, so you think it's ridiculous that people want to get rid of Matheny when he has the best record in baseball...yet you wanted to get rid of LaRussa when he won two World Series??

[Migrant Redbird]

Wait, so you think it's ridiculous that people want to get rid of Matheny when he has the best record in baseball...yet you wanted to get rid of LaRussa when he won two World Series??

Yes, I did want to get rid of La Russa, but it took about 5 years for me to develop that position and it was based on La Russa's demonstrated dearth of "people skills", not on his game decisions. My position on managerial game decisions is (1) fans don't have all the information which drove the manager's decisions and (2) a managerial decision isn't "good" or "bad" simply because it had a good or a bad outcome. Sometimes "bad decisions" work out well and many "good decisions" don't work out.

The best example I can cite was a double header the Cards had with the Nats on June 5, 2008. I was driving to the second game and listening to the first game on the radio. I was infuriated with La Russa when he took out Todd Wellemeyer after 6 innings in game 1. Todd was cruising through the Nats lineup, having allowed 5 hits 1 BB, and no runs in just 79 pitches. A day or two later, I learned that Todd had a sore arm (don't recall if it was his elbow or shoulder) and he missed his next start and never really was much good afterward. In this case, I learned why La Russa made what I perceived was a "bad" decision; most of the time fans don't really know.

Predictably, the rookie got off to a bad start in game 2, giving up 2 runs in the first, 3 runs in the second, and 2 runs in the third. In the 4th inning, Troy Glaus hit a solo HR with 2 out to make it 1-7, then the next 2 batters singled and the rookie starter came up to bat. Normally, this would be an obvious pinch hitting scenario, but I wasn't too critical of La Russa for letting his pitcher bat with the team trailing by 6 runs, even though it was nominally a "bad" decision. In my opinion, La Russa's decision was more or less "forced" due to his poor bullpen management in the first game. He simply had to get more than 3 innings from his starter.

Lo and behold, Matt Parisi shocked everyone by doubling to deep right field, driving in 2 runs. This is a prime example of a "bad" decision having a very good outcome. ("Bad" in the sense that a pinch hitter would have been the obvious move if the bullpen hadn't been overworked already.)

Parisi only pitched 1 more inning, giving up another run before being relieved by Mark Worrell, a rookie reliever just up from Memphis. Worrell retired the Nats in order in the 5th, then came up to bat in the top of the 6th with 2 out, 2 men on base, and the Cards trailing 3-8. Again, La Russa let his pitcher bat with critical runs on the bases and 2 out. Remarkably, even though it was Worrell's very first plate appearance as a professional ball player, he hit a HR, driving in 3 runs and making the score 6-8.

The Cards tied up the game in the top of the 9th and took the lead in the 10th on a solo HR, so La Russa brings in Ryan Franklin to get his second save of the day. Franklin gave up a 2 run HR to lose the game.

I still think La Russa mismanaged his bullpen that day, but it's arguable and I wouldn't insist I was right. He used 5 relief pitchers in game 1, apparently trying to apportion the workload so that some of them would be available if needed in the second game, and then used 5 in game 2, 2 of them for the second time that day. I would have tried to pick 1 reliever and asked him to pitch the 3 additional innings in the first game, especially considering that I had a rookie starting in the second game. But I won't insist that I was right and La Russa was wrong, and those 2 games had nothing to do with my belief that La Russa was the wrong manager for the Cardinals.

Matheny may have made some poor decisions this year and last on his relief pitchers -- again, it's debatable -- but there was some valid rationale (in my opinion) for his decision in the 9th inning of Thursday's suspended game to bring in Mitchell Boggs to save a 2-1 lead. (Mike Matheny can?t shake the Mitchell Boggs habit).

Every indication is that Mike Matheny has the "people skills" that La Russa so sorely lacked. Whether that has anything to do with the remarkable success of the young Cardinals players the last two seasons isn't something I could prove, but I think it probably does. I suspect that Matheny might be the hands down winner of the Manager of the Year in the NL if that vote were held today, because of the team's success in overcoming so many injuries.

[Migrant Redbird]

The Cardinals are # 1 (in the N.L. Central, in the power rankings, and they have the best record in the major leagues.)

The Cards, Reds, and Pirates had the best 3 records in the majors last week, but the ESPN power ranking panel voted the Rangers (4th best record) as #1 anyhow.

Cards pitching staff has a 2.99 ERA, best in the majors. Pirates are #2 with a 3.16 and Reds are #3 with 3.23. This despite the Cards bullpen ranking 24th (a big climb from last place a couple weeks ago). The Cards starters have a 2.55 ERA, 0.65 better than the Reds starters.

Cards hitters are 9th in the majors in runs scored, but they have the best BA and OBP for the month of May. The relatively poor hitting in April was mitigated by an astronomically high RISP average.

The next 6 games will be critical. The Cards host Arizona this week, then travel to Cincinnati for a weekend series with the Reds. After that, the schedule gets a bit easier with 10 games against the Mets, Marlins, and Cubs. Can't take anything for granted though, as the Yankees found out with the lowly Mets.

[Migrant Redbird]

Another example of sifting through the weeds and finding treasure. UNOH pitcher Zach Petrick picked up by St. Louis Cardinals

As far back as last autumn [2011], Zach Petrick had received indications he would be picked up in the [2012] Major League Baseball First-Year Player Draft. And when Petrick sat in his room and never got a phone call or heard his name announced earlier in June, he was lost.

Just a day before shipping out for a trying with an Independent League team in his native Illinois, Petrick finally received the call he'd been waiting for. Now instead of Illinois and the Independent League, he will report to the St. Louis Cardinals short-season team in Jackson City, Tennessee.

Kolten Wong and Zach Petrick are May [2013] Players of the Month

Zach Petrick

? 0-0, 0.00 ERA, 15.1 IP, 21 K, 3 BB

Zach Petrick has been one of the best relievers in the Cardinal organization this season, not just May. Petrick has a season ERA of 0.83 over 32 innings and has also struck out 46 batters and opponents are hitting just .200 against him this season. Petrick?s awesome start finally earned him a promotion on May 31st to High-A Palm Beach. Signed as an undrafted free-agent, Petrick has to be one of the best stories of 2013.

At some point, I may be forced to admit the Cards have found something unique in their player development system.

[Migrant Redbird]

Sad.

Chris Duncan, Dave's and Jeanine's son, also has been diagnosed with brain cancer. I don't know how similar it is to the cancer which killed his mother or if it's linked to genetics.

Dave took a leave of absence last year because he was still under contract through 2012. I don't think anyone expects him to resume coaching.

[Migrant Redbird]

I have a little problem with an early CYA assessment which fails to include Patrick Corbin's 9-0 record, 1.98 ERA, and 1.04 WHIP in their analysis. They do mention that Corbin is one of the ERA leaders, but ignore him when discussing their potential CYA candidates.

Historically, Chase Field has always been among the top 5-6 hitters parks in the majors (2nd in 2008 and 2009). In 2013, it ranks 26th. I'm not aware of Arizona making any changes, so I would assume the low early ranking was due at least partially to the weather and Corbin's ERA is likely to rise along with the temperature, despite the air conditioning. However, that probably won't cost him many wins, given that it's his home stadium and opposing pitchers will be at a greater disadvantage in the thinner air.

[Migrant Redbird]

With Molina as backbone, Cardinals off to super start

St. Louis closer Edward Mujica has two personal stories to tell about the importance of catcher Yadier Molina to the Cardinals. The first one occurred when Mujica joined the Cardinals in Colorado after St. Louis acquired him in a trade from Miami last July 31. Mujica had not pitched against the Rockies since May, and he was not yet with St. Louis when the pitchers held their review of the Colorado hitters at the start of the series in Denver. Mujica approached one of the coaches about how to get information on the Rockies to get up to speed.

"Don't worry about it," he was told. "You don't need it. Just follow Yadi."

The second story occurred in a National League Division Series game against Washington last year. At a taut moment in the game, Molina visited Mujica on the mound for what seemed a typical session about developing a pitch sequence to the next hitter. Instead, Molina told Mujica, "Whatever you want to throw, just go ahead and throw it. Whatever it is, I'll catch it."

"I never heard of anything like that before," Mujica said. "He went back behind the plate. No sign. I threw a changeup. And he caught it."

... What really raises Molina's profile is the expert play of this Cardinals team. St. Louis began this week with the best starting rotation in baseball, the best clutch-hitting offense in baseball, the best run-differential in baseball and, in Mujica, a lockdown closer who turned the one question about the team into a definitive answer.

• The St. Louis rotation has the best ERA in baseball (2.73) by far -- by more than half a run.
• Cardinals batters are hitting .341 with runners in scoring position. The league average is .258. No other team was within 30 points of them.
  
  
• The Cardinals don't strike out. In this era when strikeouts come too easily, St. Louis is the second-toughest team in the league to strike out.
  
  
• Mujica has more saves (18) than baserunners allowed (17). He has converted all 18 save chances,
  
  
• Mujica had a 6.04 ERA for the Indians, a 3.80 ERA for the Padres and a 3.44 ERA for the Marlins, but has posted a 1.33 ERA in 56 games for St. Louis since the trade.
  
  

Mujica credits a tweak in his grip for the split-change -- moving his fingers closer so they can ride more of the seams and throwing it with four fingers -- and the confidence in the pitch showed by Molina.

"He just kept calling for it -- one, two, three, four in a row -- it doesn't matter," Mujica said. "He said there's no reason to get away from it. When a guy like Yadi has that kind of confidence in it, you just trust him."

... With 99 games left, the better question about St. Louis might be who is going to slow them down? The Cardinals have only six games against winning teams in the next 44 days. They play 41 percent of their remaining schedule (41 of 99 games) against the five worst teams in baseball: the Marlins (6), Astros (4), Mets (3), Brewers (9), Cubs (17!) and Mariners (3).

[Migrant Redbird]

I would credit this chart but I don't know where it came from. It was posted at a Cardinals forum.

Jake Westbrook will start on Friday. He's been out for a month with elbow pain (scar tissue), but was leading the league with a 0.98 ERA when he went on the DL. Jake says his elbow feels better now than at any time since spring training.

[Migrant Redbird]

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A manager ordering Adam Wainwright to issue an intentional walk is like somebody ordering Vincent van Gogh not to paint.

It just isn't right, even if it is the best thing for the team.

It got Harvey out of the game. He was due up next after the IBB and the Mets pinch hit for him. Cards got another run from the Mets bullpen and they needed it. Of course, Harvey had already made 97 pitches, so he might not have pitched the 8th anyhow.

[Migrant Redbird]

I didn't say that they shouldn't have done it.

I just said that it wasn't right.

I understood that; I was just expanding on why it was good for the team.

In other news, rookie sensation Michael Wacha was sent down to Memphis to work on his curve. This move was probably best both for Wacha and the team. He pitched very well in his first outing (7 IP, 2 H, 0 BB, 1 ER) and not so well in his second start (4-2/3 IP, 10 H, 1 BB, 6 ER) but got no decisions in both. In his third outing, he got off to a rocky start but hung in there and eventually earned his first win (6 IP, 5 H, 3 BB, 2 ER).

Westbrook will start tonight. Before he went on the DL with a sore elbow, Jake had a 1.62 ERA in 6 starts.

[OFFNY]

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The Cardinals are MLB's Smartest Organization

(By Bill Baer) * Special to ESPN.com

http://espn.go.com/blog/sweetspot/post/_/id/37282/cardinals-are-mlbs-smartest-organization